Current Affairs Ukraine

[PhilM]

Girkin tends to be overly pessimistic because his end goal is Russian mass mobilization but his thoughts are still interesting.

Discipline in the Russian Army is notoriously low, with training for the majority of infantry men being very low compared to their European counterparts.

With an increased need for troops, you can only see discipline, training and subsequently moral declining further, so this wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[davids]

They strolled through the South and took Kherson, Meletipol and encircled Mariupol within the first two weeks of the war with minimal resistance (apart from in Mariupol) because the people in charge were Russian assets. You been following the war at all?

Minimal resistance? You need to check with the Call of Duty boys on here they saw it quite differently.

 

[davids]

Discipline in the Russian Army is notoriously low, with training for the majority of infantry men being very low compared to their European counterparts.

With an increased need for troops, you can only see discipline, training and subsequently moral declining further, so this wouldn't surprise me at all.

Could be why they've gone to missile strikes. European armies...they are an unknown at the moment.

 

[PhilM]

Could be why they've gone to missile strikes. European armies...they are an unknown at the moment.

I think it's likely a significant part of why they've gone to missile strikes, but on the flip side of that if you have those weapons available why wouldn't you.

In terms of European armies, you can say with a relatively high degree of probability that a number of European armies are far more efficient than the RA.

This can be evidenced through comparing basic training, the requirements of the NCO and officer corps, operational training and recent deployments.

For example, Phase 1 training for the army is 23 weeks before you move onto your regiment or corps for phase 2. Their training is nowhere near this.

It commonly takes longer two to three times longer to become a L.Cpl in the British Army (four years if not in a specialist role) than it does to be a Sgt in Russia.

Discipline is notoriously low and corruption is rife. You can then look at deployments for the last one to three decades to see how effective they can be.

All the UK examples, you could easily say similar things about the French or Polish forces et al. While there's lots of grumbles, European armies are far superior.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Girkin tends to be overly pessimistic because his end goal is Russian mass mobilization but his thoughts are still interesting.

He’s simply a self professed warlord along the same lines as that idiot Kadyrov from Chechnya.

I believe there’s an international arrest warrant out for him in relation to his involvement in the shooting down of MH17.

 

[davids]

European armies haven't really been tried in battle for some time now. Their record in Iraq and Afghanistan aren't stand out.

 

[PhilM]

European armies haven't really been tried in battle for some time now. Their record in Iraq and Afghanistan aren't stand out.

Really? If you talk about large scale open warfare, yes. If you’re talking about Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Bosnia, Mali…

 

[Deleted member 48881]

This is the sort of thing a tyrant does.

Putin OTOH listenin every advice given and acts accordingly

 

[davids]

Really? If you talk about large scale open warfare, yes. If you’re talking about Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Bosnia, Mali…

Do you really see Nato troops fighting in the Ukraine? When was the last open warfare situation that Nato took part in ?

 

[davids]

6 more weeks of similar gains and the Ukrainians will be talking about re-taking Odessa.

Lavrov talking about moving along the south coast. Turkey and UN broker deal for grain exports from Odessa region which would require Ukraine to de-mine their coastal waters. If I were putting 2 and 2 together and thought Russia would take advantage...

Any link to these "gains"?

 

[PhilM]

Do you really see Nato troops fighting in the Ukraine? When was the last open warfare situation that Nato took part in ?

Huh? I’ve not suggested once that NATO will fight in Ukraine, quite the opposite. The discussion was the comparison between European armies and RA.

In terms of the last open combat, 2003 in Iraq. But, many units have deployed multiple times in active combats since then, where they’ve proven themselves.

In terms of training, it’s constant - year on year - at Salisbury, Suffield, Cyprus, Kenya, Cyprus and over in the US. We’re constantly preparing for it.

 

[davids]

Russia expands Ukraine war goals | DW | 20.07.2022

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said Moscow's aims now go beyond the eastern Donbas region. He blamed the West for supplying weapons to Ukraine, and reiterated that the purpose of the invasion is to demilitarize the country.

m.dw.com

Chilling final sentence.

 

[davids]

Huh? I’ve not suggested once that NATO will fight in Ukraine, quite the opposite. The discussion was the comparison between European armies and RA.

In terms of the last open combat, 2003 in Iraq. But, many units have deployed multiple times in active combats since then, where they’ve proven themselves.

In terms of training, it’s constant - year on year - at Salisbury, Suffield, Cyprus, Kenya, Cyprus and over in the US. We’re constantly preparing for it.

So how do you envisage Nato and Russia engaged?

 

[PhilM]

So how do you envisage Nato and Russia engaged?

I don’t apart from the proxy conflict in Ukraine; I suspect Russia will eventually move its focus to the Baltic through subterfuge, political influence etc.

There was no suggestion of the two engaging in combat, but as I said it was using European armies to compare the inefficiency of Russia’s.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

The graphic below clearly shows Ukrainian reclaimed territory in the south (marked in blue).

If you look at this as preparation for a major counter offensive it makes a lot of sense.

Those territorial gains have allowed the Ukes to move their HIMARS/M270 and 155mm arty into range of the Ru forces defending Kherson. They are now conducting reconnaissance-in-force ops along the entire southern front, probing for weaknesses.

The Ukes have destroyed most of the Ru forward deployed supply and logistics hubs in the Kherson region so I would expect them to now shift their attention to destroying Ru EW and SAM sites in the region, this would then allow the Ukes to deploy more airborne assets in the region as a precursor to a full-scale offensive.

They’re doing the right things in the right order unlike the Russians when they invaded back in Feb.