Current Affairs The Conservative Party

[Walken]

Sure, I'm over-simplifying, but I don't think they did anything even close to what the two main parties have done over Brexit (the Tories in particular), yet neither has seen their poll ratings really budge. Either people are so entrenched they won't budge for love nor money, or there's nowhere for them to decamp to. Neither is particularly positive.

they have neither the tribalism associated to the tory party, nor the elite self interested backing to ensure their survival. The tory party can continue to commit atrocities and will survive as an entity, unfortunately for the lib dems they need to act with a lot more self awareness to progress

 

[tsubaki]

Praying for as close a vote as possible to really rip the Tories in half for years.

less than 250 would be terminal, less than 200 would be terminal by the end of tomorrow lunchtime

 

[Kenshin]

So if they back may , but reject her brexit deal then where does that leave her ? She won't have the party undying support but they were foolish enough to give her another 12 months in power.

Surely all the ones who want to remain would get someone in who stops brexit in its current form in march no matter what the country says and goes back to negotiate properly?

Because if they don't get brexit right then labour get power. There isn't any coming back from failing brexit for the Tories

 

[Harryflashman]

less than 250 would be terminal, less than 200 would be terminal by the end of tomorrow lunchtime

In any normal situation absolutely but where we are now god knows , she’d probably try and front it out .

The bookies make her a massive favourite to survive the vote , she was 1/4 now 1/10. Prices for votes against are

50-69 13/2
70-89 21/10
90-109 12/5
110-129 9/2

 

[arminisgod]

She can't be that confident if she is allowing suspended people back.

Love a good Tory leadership contest

 

[The binman chronicles]

She must be safe, there isn't one person they can all get behind to lead them.

 

[tsubaki]

In any normal situation absolutely but where we are now god knows , she’d probably try and front it out .

The bookies make her a massive favourite to survive the vote , she was 1/4 now 1/10. Prices for votes against are

50-69 13/2
70-89 21/10
90-109 12/5
110-129 9/2

She will - lets face it, she'll try to hang on even if she gets 160 - but no PM could survive with around a third of her party openly hostile.

Corbyn could because it doesnt matter in Opposition, but she would be forever beholden to their whims.

 

[tsubaki]

May has said she doesnt intend to fight the next election, according to the BBC.

dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

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For context, one member of the government told me this morning they knew of 5 senior ministers publicly backing her and planning to knife her in private

The beauty of a secret vote.

I said it the other day, she'll go down as one of the worst Prime ministers in this countries history.

 

[Harryflashman]

May has said she doesnt intend to fight the next election, according to the BBC.

dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed

From what reporting I’ve heard think she might be telling them she won’t fight an election in 2022 , but they’re trying to pin her down about earlier dates .

Edit - perhaps I misheard that and it was 2020

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

May has said she doesnt intend to fight the next election, according to the BBC.

dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed

Supposedly that's the carrot to get the backing tonight from those still not sure which way to vote. She just wants the year (before another leadership challenge could happen) that a vote of confidence would give her to try and see Brexit through.

 

[tsubaki]

From what reporting I’ve heard think she might be telling them she won’t fight an election in 2022 , but they’re trying to pin her down about earlier dates .

Of course they are; once a PM says they are off then the expectation is that it will be tomorrow.

 

[Harryflashman]

Of course they are; once a PM says they are off then the expectation is that it will be tomorrow.

I’m unsure if I’ve misheard the date but I’ve no doubt she’ll be incredibly vague on the date to give herself some real wiggle room . In true political traditions.

 

[arminisgod]

She must be safe, there isn't one person they can all get behind to lead them.

Like that matters to the Tories...

 

[tsubaki]

I’m unsure if I’ve misheard the date but I’ve no doubt she’ll be incredibly vague on the date to give herself some real wiggle room . In true political traditions.

That is always the idea, but the problem is (as Blair found) that people no longer have a reason to believe a PM who has said they are going - not with promises of promotion, or threats of deselection, or praise of other kinds.