Current Affairs Irish Border and Brexit

[Charlie Sweet]

I think there' s some parallels with the old reunification of East and West Germany.

In my opinion a huge majority of native Irish people see a united island as a deep seated ambition.

Granted for some it's in their heart if not their head as the practicalities and complexities of combining the 6 counties with the 26 are a lot to swallow.

Give it another 20 years of peace in the North and steadying improving economics in the Republic it will be a lot easier to envisage.

Also bear in mind that another 20 years will see a working majority of people north and south having lived most of their lives in a post Good Friday Agreement world. The most orange bandman will be long gone and replaced largely by migrants that will see the border as a historic anachronism and reunification an opportunity to rejoin the EU!

 

[Neiler]

I have read every post in this thread but haven't posted yet. The one thing I can't see is the reunification of Ireland, why? Because those of us in the South know what it will cost both in monetary terms and political terms ( risk of violence, policing bill etc etc). I don't believe there is any real appetite in the south to drag that problem onto us which is why I believe the most likely long term outcome is an independent state of NI. Economically linked to London and Dublin naturally, but fully independent to sink or swim on its own merits.

I doubt it mate, that would be picking the thing both communities are vehemently against. Unless greed takes over, which isn’t that unlikely I could see a few principals being dropped if money was involved.

But I’ve made the consistent point you are alluding to NI is now politically aligned to Ireland, econmocally the UK pick up the bill. I think eventually the UK will pull out, unless there is a strategic value for the UK in the non border.

 

[Armaghtoffee]

Lads I just went and checked and it’s still there. Can’t see it though..

 

[brieverton]

The fly in the ointment for Irish unification is the amount of Catholics that support the current status quo, either by not voting or by voting Unionist. It is also a myth that the birth rate amongst the Catholic population is such that it will equal or outstrip the Unionist/Protestant population any time soon, particularly as economic affluence increases (relatively speaking) amongst the general population.

There has been only a very meagre increase in support for nationalist parties at both General Election / Assembly election level since the Good Friday agreement, to the degree that is practically statistically insignificant. So no demographic shift at all in 20 years despite the peace process and the prominence of Sinn Féin and its All-Ireland strategy.

Whatever sentimentalism towards a United Ireland that exists on both sides of the border seems to be drowned out by fear of the practicalities, and people vote with their pockets in this regard, North and South. The more obvious solution would have been for Northern Ireland to eventually absorb more powers under devolution within a federalist EU model, but Brexit has seen to that.

Perhaps time and space will eventually collide to make a United Ireland a realistic proposition, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

 

[ToffeeTim]

The fly in the ointment for Irish unification is the amount of Catholics that support the current status quo, either by not voting or by voting Unionist. It is also a myth that the birth rate amongst the Catholic population is such that it will equal or outstrip the Unionist/Protestant population any time soon, particularly as economic affluence increases (relatively speaking) amongst the general population.

There has been only a very meagre increase in support for nationalist parties at both General Election / Assembly election level since the Good Friday agreement, to the degree that is practically statistically insignificant. So no demographic shift at all in 20 years despite the peace process and the prominence of Sinn Féin and its All-Ireland strategy.

Whatever sentimentalism towards a United Ireland that exists on both sides of the border seems to be drowned out by fear of the practicalities, and people vote with their pockets in this regard, North and South. The more obvious solution would have been for Northern Ireland to eventually absorb more powers under devolution within a federalist EU model, but Brexit has seen to that.

Perhaps time and space will eventually collide to make a United Ireland a realistic proposition, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

There will never be sufficient support within NI for a United Ireland while nationalism has SF and Gerry Adams as it's leading voice. I'm not massively political in my outlook and thoroughly dislike all NI politics, but I'm instinctively minded to completely and utterly oppose anything Adams and SF support. And there are hundreds of thousands of others who feel the same.

Give it 30 years and things could well be very different tho. And if nationalism was in much more safer and respectable hands then most people will come to accept a United Ireland if that's what people want.

 

[Armaghtoffee]

It is also a myth that the birth rate amongst the Catholic population is such that it will equal or outstrip the Unionist/Protestant population any time soon, particularly as economic affluence increases (relatively speaking) amongst the general population.

The next census is expected to confirm a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland and a quick google search would confirm that for you. The majority Catholic population is already alive and at school.

I don’t get how “economic affluence” would have any bearing on this at all?

 

[Charlie Sweet]

As we're about to get going on the next public round of EU Brexit talks I thought I'd post my thoughts that this is all about to blow up again regarding Ireland and, specifically, the Irish border.

Brussels has to push for greater clarity on the fragile compromise over the Irish border reached in December. The EU side is within weeks of a deadline to publish a legal text of December’s Brexit divorce agreement that would lay out exactly how Northern Ireland might need to “align” with the union’s single market — a move that would give much greater definition to the ambiguously worded deal.

There are numerous media reports that senior EU negotiators see the Irish border issue as the single biggest risk in talks before a March EU summit, in which Britain is hoping to agree a transition deal and begin trade talks.

The recent move by May to rule out any form of a customs union seems in complete contradiction of Paras 49 and 50 of the agreement of 8th December. The UK government has already signed up to full alignment with the Customs Union as a default position (para 49)

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...strategy-amber-rudd-theresa-may-customs-union




The hard Brexiteers were defeated back in December but are trying to resurrect themselves by simply ignoring it - and May is just seemingly giving in.

There has to be some form of customs union because of the December agreement. It's as simple as that. I still think there will be, because May’s new position that there will be no customs union of any sort is completely contradictory to the frictionless trade the government also says it wants.

She is putting holding the Tory party together above showing leadership to the country. It’s going to crash against the rocks of the actual negotiations, because they are seeking the impossible; and it won’t get through the Commons anyway.

This is party management and it’s kicking the can down the road but it’s deeply misguided and unsustainable. It feels as if we're at the start of a badly written soap opera!

 

[hullefc]

As we're about to get going on the next public round of EU Brexit talks I thought I'd post my thoughts that this is all about to blow up again regarding Ireland and, specifically, the Irish border.

Brussels has to push for greater clarity on the fragile compromise over the Irish border reached in December. The EU side is within weeks of a deadline to publish a legal text of December’s Brexit divorce agreement that would lay out exactly how Northern Ireland might need to “align” with the union’s single market — a move that would give much greater definition to the ambiguously worded deal.

There are numerous media reports that senior EU negotiators see the Irish border issue as the single biggest risk in talks before a March EU summit, in which Britain is hoping to agree a transition deal and begin trade talks.

The recent move by May to rule out any form of a customs union seems in complete contradiction of Paras 49 and 50 of the agreement of 8th December. The UK government has already signed up to full alignment with the Customs Union as a default position (para 49)

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...strategy-amber-rudd-theresa-may-customs-union




The hard Brexiteers were defeated back in December but are trying to resurrect themselves by simply ignoring it - and May is just seemingly giving in.

There has to be some form of customs union because of the December agreement. It's as simple as that. I still think there will be, because May’s new position that there will be no customs union of any sort is completely contradictory to the frictionless trade the government also says it wants.

She is putting holding the Tory party together above showing leadership to the country. It’s going to crash against the rocks of the actual negotiations, because they are seeking the impossible; and it won’t get through the Commons anyway.

This is party management and it’s kicking the can down the road but it’s deeply misguided and unsustainable. It feels as if we're at the start of a badly written soap opera!

The Irish government accepted May's 'assurances' about Northern Ireland staying in the customs union and the single market. However, pressed by the DUP who were also given assurances from May that for Northern Ireland, Brexit means Brexit, to save her government from being brought down.

This latest out of the customs union and the single market has highlighted the duplicity of the UK government last December when they knew they were trying to sit on two stools. May knew that the EU wouldn't move to the next stage without some assurances over the island of Ireland which May gave. She is now desperate as the clock ticks. Either she is prepared to renege on the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty and repeal the Northern Ireland Act 1988 to satisfy the DUP or Northern Ireland has special status which will mean they have a choice either bring down the government or accept special status i.e Brexit doesn't mean Brexit for Northern Ireland.

No wonder Paisley was trying to invoke the 'no surrender' rhetoric today. A bygone slogan from a bygone era which didn't work out for his dad. The likes of Rees Mogg, Gove, Johnson and Duncan Smith haven't a clue what the Good Friday Agreement says and the implications due to the UK leaving the customs union and the single market. As usual from such people, they will tear up international agreements to promote their political agenda. They have never said anything on the island of Ireland issue because they would be cornered to say stuff them. Farage is trying the only avenue possible to save the Tories face, by going to Ireland and pleading with them to leave the EU.

If Johnson et al want to really give the NHS £350 million more per week then stop funding the partition of Ireland and agitate for a reunification vote.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Really wish the EU would keep their nose out of our business and stop using Northern Ireland as a political football to push their own agenda. We have enough issues of our own.

 

[Joey66]

Really wish the EU would keep their nose out of our business and stop using Northern Ireland as a political football to push their own agenda. We have enough issues of our own.

Also Switzerland has many EU countries ajoining it how is it done ?
Taxes on the vehicles number plates from firms regestered to the tax systems- also cameras linked to the borders to regulate the trade friction of fiddling trade !
No hard borders between more than one border outside the EU!
So it is already being done!
A total EU blowing up a problem they know already exsisting where EU countries merge with Switzerland!
A non EU country thst has a workable agreement with the EU!

 

[peteblue]

Really wish the EU would keep their nose out of our business and stop using Northern Ireland as a political football to push their own agenda. We have enough issues of our own.

This really, the EU couldn’t give a toss about what happens in Ireland......

 

[Charlie Sweet]

Really wish the EU would keep their nose out of our business and stop using Northern Ireland as a political football to push their own agenda. We have enough issues of our own.

I'm surprised at your sentiment there. Maintaining an open border between north and south is critical for all sorts of reasons notwithstanding that it's enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement.

And all the EU are doing is standing square behind the Republic in showing their support for the above. What on earth is wrong with that?

The Republic is the EU member most directly affected by Brexit so of course it will be a major focus of attention from the EU.

NI voted in support of the EU remember. It's only the DUP at play here seeking to agitate the situation for their own political agenda.

The Irish border issue has been flagged up for years in this EU debate as a ticking time bomb.

May coming out with the "no customs allignment" flies in the face of what was agreed in December doesn't it?

Nobody has ever explained how you can have both an open frictionless border between the UK and the EU on the one hand (in Ireland) and equally be "taking back control" and "no customs union of any kind" on the other.

And the fact the public are being insulted continually by Davis etc waving his finger in the general direction of "technology" is just ludicrous.

The Irish border issue will derail Brexit to some significant degree. It has to because the circle of conflicting statements just cannot be squared in my opinion.

 

[ToffeeTim]

I'm surprised at your sentiment there. Maintaining an open border between north and south is critical for all sorts of reasons notwithstanding that it's enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement.

And all the EU are doing is standing square behind the Republic in showing their support for the above. What on earth is wrong with that?

The Republic is the EU member most directly affected by Brexit so of course it will be a major focus of attention from the EU.

NI voted in support of the EU remember. It's only the DUP at play here seeking to agitate the situation for their own political agenda.

The Irish border issue has been flagged up for years in this EU debate as a ticking time bomb.

May coming out with the "no customs allignment" flies in the face of what was agreed in December doesn't it?

Nobody has ever explained how you can have both an open frictionless border between the UK and the EU on the one hand (in Ireland) and equally be "taking back control" and "no customs union of any kind" on the other.

And the fact the public are being insulted continually by Davis etc waving his finger in the general direction of "technology" is just ludicrous.

The Irish border issue will derail Brexit to some significant degree. It has to because the circle of conflicting statements just cannot be squared in my opinion.

The only people who will install a border are the EU to get tariffs to fund their gravy train. Just leave the border as it is with free trade North and south. It won't turn into a Calais. The correct thing to do here is leaving things as it is. Whether that happens is another thing.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

The only people who will install a border are the EU to get tariffs to fund their gravy train. Just leave the border as it is with free trade North and south. It won't turn into a Calais. The correct thing to do here is leaving things as it is. Whether that happens is another thing.

So a border but not a border?! You do realise that if the UK defaults to WTO rules (even using copied-and-pasted versions of the EU's tariffs in the short term), there would still have to be border checks?

Britain changed the status quo with a Brexit vote so you can hardly now blame the EU and Ireland if the UK cannot come up with a workable solution.

p.s. I do appreciate that a small minority of people in Northern Ireland would happily see a hard border installed but thankfully those stuck in the mud unionists are fast dwindling as a proportion of the wider population.

 

[hullefc]

Also Switzerland has many EU countries ajoining it how is it done ?
Taxes on the vehicles number plates from firms regestered to the tax systems- also cameras linked to the borders to regulate the trade friction of fiddling trade !
No hard borders between more than one border outside the EU!
So it is already being done!
A total EU blowing up a problem they know already exsisting where EU countries merge with Switzerland!
A non EU country thst has a workable agreement with the EU!

There is no need for any of that, because the British prime minister gave her word in December that the north of the island of Ireland will stay in the customs union and the single market with the EU. Surely, the word of the British PM is sacrosanct? The likes of Rees Mogg, Gove, Duncan Smith and Johnson are trying to call in question the assurances May gave in December so that her word means nothing and she is not to be trusted.

Rees Mogg, Duncan Smith, Gove and Johnson are wanting to come out of the customs union and the single market if that is the case they will have to say explicitly that there will be checks on the border on the island of Ireland. The Swiss border is not 'frictionless' and not without queues, and with two different VAT and tax regimes the paper work - bureaucracy will increase. And what happens to those that flaunt the new border that don't register their goods because they are going two miles down a road to deliver some bread? Will the Police Service of Northern Ireland be told to issue arrest warrants?

Furthermore, Rees Mogg, Gove, Duncan Smith and Johnson have said that they want to take back control of EU migrants entering the UK. That means there will have to be border checks on the movement of EU people coming into the UK. An EU citizen can now go to the south of Ireland and go onwards to the north without any checks. Unless there are border checks on the border between the north and the south the same will happen after the UK leaves the EU. That is, free movement of EU citizens into the UK. If the gang of four want to erect border posts on the island of Ireland, they will be breaking the Good Friday Agreement which is an international treaty between two sovereign nations and recognised in the UN.

What's more, under the Good Friday Agreement those in the north can take up Irish citizenship which automatically means they are EU citizens. As EU citizens they are entitled to benefit, or otherwise from EU laws and directives. If the EU passes a works directive law in Strasbourg that after 30 hours work people will get paid four times their pay for overtime this applies to all EU countries. Dublin will have to follow that directive. If someone with Irish citizenship in the north of Ireland wants to have the same rights as those in the south, they will be able to challenge any firm that does not apply those rights in the ECJ.

May has said that if there is no trade agreement, the north of the island of Ireland would stay in the customs union and the single market. That is tariff free. If the UK resorts to WTO tariffs, much beloved by the Rees Moggs, Johnson et al, how can they impose them on Irish goods coming into the UK? They would have to put them on all goods coming form Ireland which would break her assurances. If they are not imposed then any EU firm can take their goods to Ireland and onwards to the UK tariff free. Irish port capacity is already expanding to handle more goods.

The Irish issue may well scupper any attempt by the UK leaving the customs union and the single market unless the north of Ireland gets special status. Something the DUP are fundamentally against so far.