Current Affairs Irish Border and Brexit

[Charlie Sweet]

I think the Irish border issue will stop Brexit.

Either Theresa May gives in to common sense and agrees to stay in the customs union (for the whole UK or just Northern Ireland) in which case it will spark enough of a revolt from right wing Tories and/or the DUP to bring down the government. General election in Q1 2018 = Corbyn victory against a disunited Right. Corbyn then immediately pads out Brexit/Transition phase until such time as there's an EU-wide re-think on cross migration. We then either continue in an indefinite transition phase or a second referendum is called and a Remain votes wins.

Or Theresa May refuses to buckle on the Border issue and we fall headlong into the worst of Hard Brexits next year. The markets would react so badly to this turn of events that I think the government would have no choice but to hasten the departure date once it became clear no talks were even contemplated. This leads to a savage recession with farmers fields in Lincolnshire going unpicked and the likes of Nissan and JLR cutting jobs like nobody's business. Enough sensible Tories give up the ghost and a snap election sees Corbyn in. He won't formally re-join the EU anytime soon but we'll patch back into the Customs union as a starter on a long path to a new EU.

 

[Eggs]

..it’ll be a shame if this undoes lots of work done in peace and security area.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

..it’ll be a shame if this undoes lots of work done in peace and security area.

It's the lying and head in the sands approach that gets me. The UK has said "no hard border" from the outset and points to some random "hi-tech imaginative" solution without any of the necessary details.

Liam Fox was on the TV yesterday saying that the border couldn't be sorted until a trade deal had been agreed - but has already nailed the colours to the mast on leaving the customs union or making some special arrangement for Northern Ireland.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

It's the lying and head in the sands approach that gets me. The UK has said "no hard border" from the outset and points to some random "hi-tech imaginative" solution without any of the necessary details.

Liam Fox was on the TV yesterday saying that the border couldn't be sorted until a trade deal had been agreed - but has already nailed the colours to the mast on leaving the customs union or making some special arrangement for Northern Ireland.

18'months on and this shower have still go this issue on the 'what the feck to we do with that' pile

Fox is a clueless back shuffling weasel

 

[Tubey]

I don't think it will. I don't know how they'll get around it, but the Brexiteer madness is so full on now that many of them would kill their own mothers to get us out of Europe. Any price is worth paying to them; Ireland, a subject that they give literally zero tosses about, won't stop that mindset.

They can't wait to profit off the race to the bottom that comes after Brexit from the working class turkeys that voted for Christmas. They can taste it.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

I don't think it will. I don't know how they'll get around it, but the Brexiteer madness is so full on now that many of them would kill their own mothers to get us out of Europe. Any price is worth paying to them; Ireland, a subject that they give literally zero tosses about, won't stop that mindset.

They can't wait to profit off the race to the bottom that comes after Brexit from the working class turkeys that voted for Christmas. They can taste it.

Call me sad but I watched a bit of BBC Parliament channel where the Northern Ireland Select Committee interviewed the PM of Gibraltar on how they get the border to work with Spain. It would have been funny if it wasn't so serious. The Select Committee were all of a unionist slant (or at least those that spoke) and one by one they asked a question only to find the answer not to their liking (e.g. yes we have the very highest tech border cameras but of course there are still mad long queues etc). It's madness.

 

[Khalekan]

I think the Irish border issue will stop Brexit.

Either Theresa May gives in to common sense and agrees to stay in the customs union (for the whole UK or just Northern Ireland) in which case it will spark enough of a revolt from right wing Tories and/or the DUP to bring down the government. General election in Q1 2018 = Corbyn victory against a disunited Right. Corbyn then immediately pads out Brexit/Transition phase until such time as there's an EU-wide re-think on cross migration. We then either continue in an indefinite transition phase or a second referendum is called and a Remain votes wins.

Or Theresa May refuses to buckle on the Border issue and we fall headlong into the worst of Hard Brexits next year. The markets would react so badly to this turn of events that I think the government would have no choice but to hasten the departure date once it became clear no talks were even contemplated. This leads to a savage recession with farmers fields in Lincolnshire going unpicked and the likes of Nissan and JLR cutting jobs like nobody's business. Enough sensible Tories give up the ghost and a snap election sees Corbyn in. He won't formally re-join the EU anytime soon but we'll patch back into the Customs union as a starter on a long path to a new EU.

It is the issue of the Irish border which, if May had and sense, could be used to bring some sanity into the Brexit negotiations.

No, there should not be a return to the border in Ireland.

Apart from the economic chaos it will cause particularly to companies in the North, for whom the Republic constitutes its biggest market, the construction of customs posts and other signs of partition along an area where the people detest the very idea and the electoral map illustrates this fact, will inevitably lead to violence.

And there should be no sea border between any part of Ireland and England as that would just be ridiculous as the North is part of the UK and there has been unrestricted movement between the Republic and England since before the Common Market was even thought off.

Remaining in the Customs Union is the way round this and if it doesn’t suit the Tory right then tough luck.

Regarding the coalition between the Tories and the DUP, I actually think it is the DUP which has the weakest hand here.

They are only propping May up because they hate Corbyn and fear a Labour government..

They have no real leverage with May....they made a big deal of extorting a billion quid off her as the price she had to pay but that has not as yet made its way to help the beleaguered economy in the North.

They sat back and looked on helplessly as the government refused to to tackle Trump over the cash penalties placed on Bombardier which threatens the future of Northern Ireland's largest private employer and it situated right in the heart of the DUP’s East Belfast heartland.

May could tell the DUP to jump through hoops if she had a mind to.

But of course, all of the above is based on the flawed notion of May having “sense”.

And so far she has displayed precious little of that since she arrived in Downing Street

 

[Khalekan]

..it’ll be a shame if this undoes lots of work done in peace and security area.

I would say that is almost certain, Eggs.

As ever, when England sneezes, Ireland catches a cold.

 

[Eggs]

It's the lying and head in the sands approach that gets me. The UK has said "no hard border" from the outset and points to some random "hi-tech imaginative" solution without any of the necessary details.

Liam Fox was on the TV yesterday saying that the border couldn't be sorted until a trade deal had been agreed - but has already nailed the colours to the mast on leaving the customs union or making some special arrangement for Northern Ireland.

..and the conjecture is whether Fox was talking on behalf of May or whether he’s another Minister with a different agenda. I dare say the current instability in Ireland’s political scene and the stalemate in Stormont isn’t helping at all, especially when adding the UK Government’s dependence on the UDP.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

I would say that is almost certain, Eggs.

As ever, when England sneezes, Ireland catches a cold.

True. But equally Ireland has a history of bringing down a UK government.....

Any general election in Ireland would serve to heighten a tough negotiating position with FG and FF both having to counter Sinn Fein's attacks.

The worst is there is perhaps 5% of the population (ultra hard right unionists probably living on the Antrim coast) that are happy for there to be a hard border. The reality is just madness.

 

[Prevenger17]

We must go to war.

 

[Khalekan]

Call me sad but I watched a bit of BBC Parliament channel where the Northern Ireland Select Committee interviewed the PM of Gibraltar on how they get the border to work with Spain. It would have been funny if it wasn't so serious. The Select Committee were all of a unionist slant (or at least those that spoke) and one by one they asked a question only to find the answer not to their liking (e.g. yes we have the very highest tech border cameras but of course there are still mad long queues etc). It's madness.

Indeed.

A border between Gibraltar and Spain in not one bit contentious for the citizens of The Rock.

They desire it 100%.

Then they talk about how smoothly borders between other EU states operate with non members.

Sweden and Norway is oft quoted.......Newsnight had a feature on the Switzerland/France border one evening.

And they say this could be the model for the Irish border.

But WHOOSH......the pertinent point goes right over their head.

Those people don’t mind a border between their country and another.

It is the normal way of things.

But the Irish border cuts right through that country......nearly half the people in the Nirth vote for paries that want it removed altogether and the whole island to be one unitary state.

Every Westminster constiituency along the length of the border returned a Sinn Fein MP in the last election if I am not mistaken.

And the people in the border counties on the Republic side are equally as opposed to a border which in many cases cuts right through their farms and backyards.

The peace process in the North was not perfect but it was bowling along and things in Belfast these days are so much better than when I was a regular visitor a couple decades ago.

The Republic was sorting its economy out after the collapse of the Tiger.

Now everything is put at risk with the Brexit madness which will impact Ireland in ways it will not impact this country.

 

[hullefc]

The only solution, under the Belfast Agreement and the Northern Ireland Act 1989 and the changes to the Irish constitution, is for the island of Ireland to have special status. That doesn't please the DUP. The Tories are going to have to make a choice between pleasing the DUP, 'Brexit means Brexit with a border' or special status with no borders. The eleventh hour is fast approaching for May.

 

[Joey66]

France are in the EU Switzerland not - yet no hard border answer solved some gutbwas on LBC Radio am saying it's pure politics by the Irish south as they will and are scared if the rest of the UK does well after Brexit they will deffo leave the EU themselves!

 

[hullefc]

France are in the EU Switzerland not - yet no hard border answer solved some gutbwas on LBC Radio am saying it's pure politics by the Irish south as they will and are scared if the rest of the UK does well after Brexit they will deffo leave the EU themselves!

Unlike on the island of Ireland, there is no political issue with a border between Switzerland and France. Under the Good Friday Agreement free movement of Irish citizens is enshrined in that agreement. That means there cannot be a border on the island of Ireland to check people travelling, that would be to check passports or what they are carrying in vans, cars or lorries i.e goods. Also the all Ireland institutes cannot be hindered in their business, again enshrined in the agreement, by a border.

It is not the Irish republic who are playing politics with the border but the May government, with their political reliance on the DUP becoming more evident with every passing day. The DUP are actively pushing the Tories to tear up the Belfast agreement an international treaty between two sovereign governments. They also want the Northern Ireland Act 1989 repealed because it enables reference to be made to the ECJ by the Northern Ireland assembly - which is why they have hindered any agreement to get the assembly back on track and sitting to pass legislation.

Unfortunately, the likes of Davis, May, Johnson et al haven't a clue what is going on and they haven't a clue about what is in the Belfast Agreement and the Northern Ireland Act 1989 and the implications for Brexit and the island of Ireland. The clock is ticking and they will have to come clean with the people and admit Northern Ireland will not leave the EU - will have special status - or they will renege on an international agreement (Belfast agreement)- which wont look good when they are trying to negotiate international agreements with other countries outside the EU.