Current Affairs Iran

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tsubaki said:
I disagree with this notion that it’s Iran who is destabilising the region; they’ve largely kept their word in terms of diplomacy, honoured the agreements they’ve signed up to and most of their actions are in response to attacks on them.

The region is being destabilised by Netanyahu, and has been for at least twenty years. He’s repeatedly proved his word, Israel’s word under his watch, is meaningless. Repeated deals with neighbours and the Palestinians have been wrecked by him; JCPOA was wrecked by him, the Abraham Accords were wrecked by him. He is even destabilising Western politics in order to achieve his goals, such as they are.

Nothing will change for the better with him in charge.
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Seems like your right Lebanon next with an eye on Iran.

Biden will be on the bench knowing full well Israel will go to far.
 
tsubaki said:
I disagree with this notion that it’s Iran who is destabilising the region; they’ve largely kept their word in terms of diplomacy, honoured the agreements they’ve signed up to and most of their actions are in response to attacks on them.

The region is being destabilised by Netanyahu, and has been for at least twenty years. He’s repeatedly proved his word, Israel’s word under his watch, is meaningless. Repeated deals with neighbours and the Palestinians have been wrecked by him; JCPOA was wrecked by him, the Abraham Accords were wrecked by him. He is even destabilising Western politics in order to achieve his goals, such as they are.

Nothing will change for the better with him in charge.
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Israel and Iran (and the US) have been engaged in what some commentators have described as a shadow war, (no tories) being fought via proxies for a long time now, the Hamas incident and what has followed being the latest. I imagine most are well aware of this.

If the US choose to react to the Jordan incident it would seem that key to stabilising the current unrest would be to dismantle Irans influence. Strikes upon these proxies would be messy and would leave Iran with a difficult choice as to whether to intervene but you'd assume that the regime might feel that the US have been looking for an excuse to wipe them out for some time now. If Iran understand this they might see it as a risk worth taking unless they have guarentees from Russia and China. That said the Iran regime have shown many times that they are willing to sacrifice their proxies whilst watching from the sidelines.

Jordan's reaction has not really been core to conversations yet but if there has been an attack on their land by a militia/proxy of Iran they might have their own thoughts about consequences. No doubt there will be a wider convesation offline about possible coalitions.
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
Israel and Iran (and the US) have been engaged in what some commentators have described as a shadow war, (no tories) being fought via proxies for a long time now, the Hamas incident and what has followed being the latest. I imagine most are well aware of this.

If the US choose to react to the Jordan incident it would seem that key to stabilising the current unrest would be to dismantle Irans influence. Strikes upon these proxies would be messy and would leave Iran with a difficult choice as to whether to intervene but you'd assume that the regime might feel that the US have been looking for an excuse to wipe them out for some time now. If Iran understand this they might see it as a risk worth taking unless they have guarentees from Russia and China. That said the Iran regime have shown many times that they are willing to sacrifice their proxies whilst watching from the sidelines.

Jordan's reaction has not really been core to conversations yet but if there has been an attack on their land by a militia/proxy of Iran they might have their own thoughts about consequences. No doubt there will be a wider convesation offline about possible coalitions.
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I agree. But I have been told Israel could strike Iran before the US will on their mainland. He feels Hamas will be extinguished or severely compromised within the month. Lebanon could be next but he says that could be a head fake. Iran seems to be the main target as they may have lost control of their proxies.
 
theintercept.com

Leaked Report: “CIA Does Not Know” If Israel Plans to Bomb Iran

A leaked intelligence report from February says “Netanyahu probably calculates Israel will need to strike Iran to deter its nuclear program.”
theintercept.com theintercept.com

This is last May 2023 but it shows the importance of more dialogue between the US and Israel and also Iran and its proxies. Control is lost it seems and anything could happen which would really widen the conflict. Very concerning.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
Those KC-135’s left Mildenhall U.K. this morning and are now transiting south through Romanian airspace headed for the ME.

Their job is to refuel strike aircraft - they have no other purpose.

Make of that what you will
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Wow. So strikes incoming somewhere in the ME. You'd imagine they aren't bonkers enough to directly hit Iran so maybe somewhere Iran has proxies.
 
Spadge Vernacular said:
Looks like Iran is going to leave their militias to face any US retribution.


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Destroying Iran's proxies means Iran cannot hide behind them and surely no one will be rushing in to replace them given that they now know what is going to happen.

Probably the smartest move the USA could've taken given the circumstances.

Hopefully it will calm down now at least for a short while.
 
Yarrgh said:
Destroying Iran's proxies means Iran cannot hide behind them and surely no one will be rushing in to replace them given that they now know what is going to happen.

Probably the smartest move the USA could've taken given the circumstances.

Hopefully it will calm down now at least for a short while.
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TBF that does assume Iran’s proxies are just that, mere creatures of that state rather than groups with motivations and goals of their own who would inevitably reappear.

There is no military way out of this that works at this point. What would be much more likely to work vs Iran directly is to remove the regimes legitimacy, by calming everything and everyone down.
 
tsubaki said:
TBF that does assume Iran’s proxies are just that, mere creatures of that state rather than groups with motivations and goals of their own who would inevitably reappear.

There is no military way out of this that works at this point. What would be much more likely to work vs Iran directly is to remove the regimes legitimacy, by calming everything and everyone down.
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I presume that their proxies do have their own agendas too just to confuse the whole situation further.

I agree that calming down the situation would be very wise. Let's hope that this happens ASAP. Also include Israel in this and the genocide of Palestinians is stopped immediately which will certainly defuse the tensions in the middle east somewhat.
 
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