Current Affairs Iran

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TBF that does assume Iran’s proxies are just that, mere creatures of that state rather than groups with motivations and goals of their own who would inevitably reappear.

There is no military way out of this that works at this point. What would be much more likely to work vs Iran directly is to remove the regimes legitimacy, by calming everything and everyone down.
There is no doubt that the leaders of these proxies, being given the military equipment, training and funding will have agendas but without Iran (or state backing) they'd be different propositions. I suppose if Iran do withdraw we will see how confident and capable they are in either continuing to attack targets or the more serious reality of facing off the US military.

A military solution might not work, but you'd have to wonder what chance diplomacy would have in a situation with directly competing geopolitical goals. Add to that people(s) committed to bringing death to America and wiping Israel off the map.

There will be many planners of the opinion that until the Iranian regime (not population) and its proxies are taken off the board there will be no peace in the middle east.
 
There is no doubt that the leaders of these proxies, being given the military equipment, training and funding will have agendas but without Iran (or state backing) they'd be different propositions. I suppose if Iran do withdraw we will see how confident and capable they are in either continuing to attack targets or the more serious reality of facing off the US military.

A military solution might not work, but you'd have to wonder what chance diplomacy would have in a situation with directly competing geopolitical goals. Add to that people(s) committed to bringing death to America and wiping Israel off the map.

There will be many planners of the opinion that until the Iranian regime (not population) and its proxies are taken off the board there will be no peace in the middle east.

It’s how you get rid of the regime that’s the key thing though. If we’ve learned nothing else from the past twenty years of Middle Eastern history it’s that military action has consistently failed at even its most basic level to deliver positive change, so that has to be ruled out.

That leaves other things. Direct diplomacy is going to be very difficult; US credibility there is near zero given the fact everything it signs up to can be vetoed by the Israeli leadership. Economic pressures aren’t working either, given that the regime can continue a good standard of living whilst being given a whole load of excuses for their own corruption and incompetence affecting the living standards of the population.

That just leaves the cultural / social aspect, which as I’ve tried to say before is where the real vulnerability of the regime (and FWIW the Russian regime) lies. Calm things down, encourage Iranian participation and what would probably happen is that those in charge would very quickly enrich themselves.

Then the population would ask where their improvement was, and that is when regime change may well happen.
 
It’s how you get rid of the regime that’s the key thing though. If we’ve learned nothing else from the past twenty years of Middle Eastern history it’s that military action has consistently failed at even its most basic level to deliver positive change, so that has to be ruled out.

That leaves other things. Direct diplomacy is going to be very difficult; US credibility there is near zero given the fact everything it signs up to can be vetoed by the Israeli leadership. Economic pressures aren’t working either, given that the regime can continue a good standard of living whilst being given a whole load of excuses for their own corruption and incompetence affecting the living standards of the population.

That just leaves the cultural / social aspect, which as I’ve tried to say before is where the real vulnerability of the regime (and FWIW the Russian regime) lies. Calm things down, encourage Iranian participation and what would probably happen is that those in charge would very quickly enrich themselves.

Then the population would ask where their improvement was, and that is when regime change may well happen.
It is a nice idea and I would love it to be the case but in reality when a regime has an iron grip and the might to back this up the people tend to be kept in line out of fear. Iran has had a few attempts but the people are clamped down on. Russia the same through both Soviet times and now under Putin. If we factor modern technology into this and a ruling powers abilty to control this through targeted narratives, surveylance of groups and individuals and the ability to restrict vital comms channels then it makes a difficult challenge much harder.

Don't get me wrong, if there is a choice between option that would deliver, then I'd much prefer a diplomacy.
 
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