Current Affairs Iran
- Thread starter Spadge Vernacular
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spectateur
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Oh well,let them get on with it. I suppose Sunnak will send a couple of RAF and let the navy fire a couple of rockets.
To show groveling support as usual.
Lots of tankers KC-135’s and C-17 heavy lift on the move to Europe - There is a major NATO exercise underway in Europe, so could be related to that. It will be interesting to see if they’re sqwarking ADSB tomorrow en-route to their final destination. Also B-52’s deployed to Diego Garcia. Which again is not unusual but it would give the US options.
Smash em lad
BrendanGOT
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Cheers for the update I've no clue with regards to military movements etc.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
no
The mirror universe Ned Flanders has never been right on anything; even when he fell out with Trump it was for the wrong reasons.
Tennessee Blue Mike
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Died laughing on the Ned Flanders comment Homer would be proud.
Martin Alvito
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Sort of. What we're doing with Iran isn't working, they are very actively operating against our interests and those of our allies to destabilize the region, and they're being smart by working through proxies. A message does need to be sent.
It doesn't follow that it should be a messy one, on Iranian soil. Bolton is at least being honest. He would give a Republican president the same advice. He also wants regime change in Iran, which would require a war. He sees an opportunity, and could care less about domestic politics.
If the shoe were on the other foot, the same Republican politicians you hear advocating disproportionate response would be advocating restraint. Israeli disproportionate response landed us here, they know that, and they would know that bearing responsibility for a wider war probably costs them the White House in November. Their whole electoral strategy revolves around the message that Biden is feeble and incompetent.
This plays into that nicely, by offering Biden a no-win scenario. If his response is soft, it fits their messaging. If he escalates the crisis, it sets up a wider war the public does not want, and leaves him with the blame.
I think he will target the Iranian-backed militia group/groups directly responsible for the attack. In addition I think the US will target Iranian Shahed drone manufacturing locations in Iran and follow up with some form of rhetoric like “Fk around and find out”
If attacks continue I can see the US targeting the IRGC directly along with supply lines from Iran to the militias (including the Houthis).
Those KC-135’s left Mildenhall U.K. this morning and are now transiting south through Romanian airspace headed for the ME.
Their job is to refuel strike aircraft - they have no other purpose.
Make of that what you will
Martin Alvito
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I would also start with the militia groups, after a day to think about it. I don't know that hitting the drone facilities is necessary (yet) if their hit rate is 1/240.
I agree the US is likely to quit messing around if a second response becomes a political necessity. I would be likely to keep the first answer minimal and go shock and awe on the second, but that's a matter of taste and beliefs about psychology. I suspect the second move will more or less be necessary, so I would want to maximize its impact. I doubt any reasonable first reply moves the needle much.
tsubaki
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I disagree with this notion that it’s Iran who is destabilising the region; they’ve largely kept their word in terms of diplomacy, honoured the agreements they’ve signed up to and most of their actions are in response to attacks on them.
The region is being destabilised by Netanyahu, and has been for at least twenty years. He’s repeatedly proved his word, Israel’s word under his watch, is meaningless. Repeated deals with neighbours and the Palestinians have been wrecked by him; JCPOA was wrecked by him, the Abraham Accords were wrecked by him. He is even destabilising Western politics in order to achieve his goals, such as they are.
Nothing will change for the better with him in charge.
Wouldn't be surprised if the USA do a big operation agaist Iranian interests in the area.
Then sit back and watch Israel try bump the nuclear capability of Iran off.
As always with the middle east there isn't a right or wrong way to go when the west gets involved it allways ends up in a mire anyway.
I would leave well alone if it were possible.
Then sit back and watch Israel try bump the nuclear capability of Iran off.
As always with the middle east there isn't a right or wrong way to go when the west gets involved it allways ends up in a mire anyway.
I would leave well alone if it were possible.
Yarrgh
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There's always a wrong way it seems. Leave alone as much as possible seems a sensible approach but with Israel and Iran both acting particularly badly, it drags the west in and both those countries know it.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
There is a right way here though; stop tolerating Israel’s antics.
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