Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Bruce Wayne]

You need to read that article again. His reference to continuing to be part of a free trade agreement is said to come from Germany's BDI. He then mentions a points based immigration system in the SAME ARTICLE.

I don't know what the future will hold, but if you think that everyone who voted leave is going to have a breakdown due to that article then you are grossly mistaken.

It's possible, yes, of course it is, but it is incredibly unlikely because access to the EU free trade area requires ratification from all 27 remaining states. I've said it several times already, but I'll say it again, whilst Germany et al might do a lot of trade with Britain, there are many among those 27 that do very little.

For countries such as Romania and Poland, the free movement of people with Britain is far more valuable than a free trade agreement as they simply don't trade much with us (relative to other EU nations), so it's unlikely that they would agree to any arrangement whereby free movement is off the table.

To repeat, it takes one nation to scupper a deal. Just one. Now Boris may be some kind of negotiating wizard, but I'd say the odds that he will convince the EU to overlook something that is enshrined in its constitution as a founding principle is rather unlikely.

 

[Tubey]

The EU has been in ongoing discussions with Canada, USA and China for years. This is the precise problem UK businesses have! The EU cannot reach agreements with any of these countries because the EU is 28 bickering members. The biggest economy the EU has ever negotiated a trade deal with is South Korea. Australia has a better collection of trade deals, and it doesn't have one with the EU.

Remind me how much longer Obama is in power for? The US and the UK could, and would, negotiate a trade deal in a fraction of the time the EU could. Pretty sure the US government has the manpower available to carry out both sets of negotiations at once.

Article 50 is solely for the member state concerned to invoke. The EU does not dictate brexit at all.

....

Look, don't want to be rude, but will you stop saying wrong things please?

 

[Tubey]

No it isn't. I'm saying I don't know what the outcome of the negotiations will be. Your saying that you do, and that the outcome of the forthcoming negotiations is already a fact. A fact that didn't seem to be well promoted within the Remain's angel-like propaganda campaign for some reason?

I'm also saying that Mr Johnson's article in the Telegraph is not some massive U-turn from his rhetoric prior to the vote. In fact, it's basically identical. And it's a rhetoric that includes a specific reference to gaining control of immigration and implementing a points style system. @Seanjd has interpreted the article as if it is some massive U-turn from Boris Johnson when it is nothing of the sort. What was that you were saying about 1+1 being ignored as you are only willing to accept the answer of 3?

The reason I know the outcome of "negotiations" is simple - we can't join a free trade agreement with Europe without accepting the free movement of people in the EFTA.

I've typed that about fifty times now and for some reason you refuse to read it and acknowledge it.

 

[TheBlueGibbon]

The reason I know the outcome of "negotiations" is simple - we can't join a free trade agreement with Europe without accepting the free movement of people in the EFTA.

I've typed that about fifty times now and for some reason you refuse to read it and acknowledge it.

Yes but they might change their mind on a founding principle of the organisation because they need us desperately

 

[Bruce Wayne]

They have a stronger hand than we do.

Indeed, if for no other reason than EU membership seems to benefit our economy by many tens of billions.

 

[Tubey]

Yes but they might change their mind on a founding principle of the organisation because they need us desperately

Again, no, can't happen. It's a fantasy.

Farage doesn't want free trade; he wants a trade agreement. Johnson wants free trade, and we're talking about Johnson. As such, he's lying about a points based system, because he can't have that with free movement of people.

Also, after activating Article 50, we'd have two years before we leave. We cannot get a trade agreement before then (next to impossible), so Farage is advocating no formal trade agreement with the EU except for the default WTO conditions, which are nowhere near good enough.

In short, Johnson wants to have his cake and eat it too, in a room where no cake exists.

 

[Tubey]

We'll see if an opinion poll emerges, but in the wake of Brexit, my instinct tells me that support for independence will be about 60/40. I think you're underestimating how big an impact it makes on things personally.

Turns out I'm right!

NEARLY six out of 10 Scots say they’d vote Yes in a second independence referendum.

In a clear reflection of the growing backlash north of the Border to Thursday’s Brexit result, a ScotPulse online survey of 1,600 Scottish adults on Friday (24 June) showed that 59% of Scots now back leaving the UK.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-puts-support-for-scottish-independence-at-59-1-4163338

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Just for clarification, here are the four founding principles of the EU, to encourage the free movement of:

1. goods
2. capital
3. services
4. persons

Expecting them to renege on something so fundamental is very wishful imo.

 

[Brennan]

Again, no, can't happen. It's a fantasy.

Farage doesn't want free trade; he wants a trade agreement. Johnson wants free trade, and we're talking about Johnson. As such, he's lying about a points based system, because he can't have that with free movement of people.

Also, after activating Article 50, we'd have two years before we leave. We cannot get a trade agreement before then (next to impossible), so Farage is advocating no formal trade agreement with the EU except for the default WTO conditions, which are nowhere near good enough.

In short, Johnson wants to have his cake and eat it too, in a room where no cake exists.

Think he was being sarcastic

 

[Tubey]

Think he was being sarcastic

Aye I missed it. No coffee yet soz

 

[Lee Smith]

You miss the point.

I'm talking about the purpose behind the government gaining a mandate to threaten to invoke Article 50, in a situation where invoking said Article would leave the six other net contributors to the EU facing an increase in their contributions that they cannot or do not want to make.

I appreciate your point that many leave voters will not have been voting with this in mind. You are certainly right about some leave voters, possibly a majority, But I certainly voted with this factor in mind, and so were most of my leave-voting friends.

The end game here is that we are going to negotiate a better deal on staying in the EU because the other net contributors cannot afford for us to leave. Part of that better deal is going to be our exemption from the free movement policy. We couldn't get this kind of deal without first threatening to leave the EU, and we couldn't do that without holding a referendum.

I can imagine the upcoming negotiations between the UK and the EU being like one huge stare out competition, to see who blinks first

 

[orchard]

Yes, but they did vote to remain in the uk...

Turns out I'm right!

NEARLY six out of 10 Scots say they’d vote Yes in a second independence referendum.

In a clear reflection of the growing backlash north of the Border to Thursday’s Brexit result, a ScotPulse online survey of 1,600 Scottish adults on Friday (24 June) showed that 59% of Scots now back leaving the UK.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-puts-support-for-scottish-independence-at-59-1-4163338

 

[Brennan]

Yes, but they did vote to remain in the uk...

On the basis that we would remain in the EU.

 

[toffee matt]

"Project Fear"

 

[JLW]

On the basis that we would remain in the EU.

Its irrelevant,, Scotland opted to stay with the UK and The UK opted out of the EU