Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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Well I'm not sure that stands up mate tbh. We've had sub-30 deaths (sub-20 for a lot of it) for pretty much every day for going on the past 2 months now. I do share the concerns about the hospitilsations and capacity etc for other illnesses and treatments, but we're approaching the height of summer, we're also approaching the summer holidays, we're also at a very low base.
I can't think that there has been any better time this year so far to open up than now, other than perhaps early June when the rates were really, really non-existent (before delta came along).
There's going to be massive risks whether we open up now or in 6 months or in 12 months. There's always going to be risks.
BWT: I'd keep masks mandatory in certain settings, I don't see why that needs to change. I'd keep any events to outdoor only for the time being. I'd have a vaccination roll out starting in schools/colleges come September for people aged 17-18 and then maybe 15-16 etc. Want all of this done mate, but I also think steps have to be taken. Continued restrictions won't be adhered to, people have had enough.
BlueStevie35
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No hospital figures reported today, last Saturday’s late revealed total was 25
All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 34 deaths were announced today, up 5 on yesterday and up 16 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 27.43
For the 60 day cut off, 44 deaths were announced today, up 6 on yesterday and up 16 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 33.43
All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 34 deaths were announced today, up 5 on yesterday and up 16 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 27.43
For the 60 day cut off, 44 deaths were announced today, up 6 on yesterday and up 16 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 33.43
spectateur
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Over 35M people have at least one jab, take up rate of vaccinations showing no sign of falling.
The rise follows the relaxation of restrictions at the beginning of the month, that together with the annual tourist influx.
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
Thats magic. Hope it continues.
Yep an excellent and well-explained thread.
It's all about balance.
I don't agree with everything that is supposedly going to go a week on Monday, but there's no evidence a delay does anything but kick the can down the road into the winter and next spring, and the devastating impact that can have on people's lives - whether financially supported or not.
Still think the main issue with getting people to isolate is the time they need to do it and that's what needs to change asap for me. Test and trace, isolation etc becomes a lot easier if you only need to do five days instead of 10, for example, if they introduce a PCR release test.
Also, track and trace have told my mates not to get another PCR within 90 days of this current one, as they can still detect a positive trace up to that amount of time. Again, huge inconsistencies even with that - so the end solution (way down the line) does have to be stopping testing altogether other than in very specific circumstances. For that though, everyone needs to be vaccinated.
Deckard2049
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Mostly sensible except this:
At this stage in proceedings you’d be punishing these businesses which have been shut for over a year and their most likely clientele (younger people) who won’t be double dosed for a little while longer.
People really need to stop fretting so much about night clubs IMO. It’s a proper curtain twitching mentality. I know people will bring up long Covid and community transmission, but the actual risk to the people who will be frequenting these places is minuscule. And if the rest of society is open there is no reason to single out these places anymore.
Strongly disagree, especially for the long Covid aspect - 10% isn’t a miniscule risk and there is some evidence that it might be even higher.
Long COVID in a prospective cohort of home-isolated patients - Nature Medicine
Analysis of a prospectively enrolled cohort of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in Bergen, Norway, reveals a high proportion of patients who experienced long COVID symptoms at 6 months, despite being relatively young and having only mild to moderate acute COVID-19 symptoms.
www.nature.com
Was talking to someone recently who knows their stuff and they were telling me a third dose of AZ, is absolutely of the charts in activating the immunity system.
Its a new phase mate, there will be deaths, not as many, but some ways this could be a stickier phase for health care professionals and health services. It might not be the overwhelming dying units, but it might be an increase in chronic care, that is were this virus is shifting now. Its a different focus of care, large number chronically ill, or suffering long term side effects in huge volumes, without a natural beginning middle and end. It has just as equal potential to overwhelm services in a different way as wild or Covid for those who were unvacinated. I think people are very flippent with saying things like the NHS wont get overwhelmed because there wont be as many admissions (there will) or deaths. You'd be very surprised of what causes carnage, for health care providers and health services. Think of a dementia or cardiac ward, 1 person test positive, both wards are shut down for weeks, IPC guidelines kick in, all patients isolated yu shut down systems to control the spread. Or you get one person in A&E waiting for 4 fours with another 50 people, one has Covid and infects everyone else. People are then admitted through a number of routes throughout that hospital system and the whole place gets seeded, its that type of thing that overwhelms services, before you take into account staff contracting and then you are dealing with a lack of health care professionals to provide a service. Its all very nuanced and interwoven in multifaceted systems.
A balance needs to be struck, whats not open at the moment night clubs and a few other bits, its not like we are going without food and water, its not a crisis of those proportions we're basically being asked to watch netflix a bit more, im not going to minimise though as i know people livelihoods have been effected on different scales, so to be clear im speaking broadly here about personal freedoms and not without compassion for peoples individual hardships across a spectrum, there are very little personal freedoms we dont have currently and certainly ones we can do without if it means protecting the health of the world, in the context of what the developing world has to put up with all of the time with or without Covid.
But this isn't the right way to look at it
Those are people's livelihoods and they have had no idea when they're going to be able to open again. Same with gigs and events, arenas and music venues on the verge of bankruptcy.
You can't just say 'oh well they aren't vital' because to a hell of a lot of people involved in those industries, they very much are, and they also happen to take a hell of a lot of pre-planning.
18 months in and with very low numbers of deaths, then there isn't really justification. So we have to learn to live with it and move forward. That's not me quoting Tory rhetoric because as I've said, I'd still have certain measures in place in the hope that they would mean that in the long term we get it all back for good sooner, but - and I know you aren't meaning to just disregard people - but these people will rightly feel like they have been disregarded when there really isn't much justification to keep doing so now.
Think of all the people who work in nightclubs, or at concert venues, or all the road crew for artists, all the tour managers and promoters. That's a very small example but that's 1000s and 1000s of people in the UK alone. And ultimately, 1000s of people losing work and their livelihoods can't really be justified at this stage with the hospital figures we're seeing, with the proviso of the vaccine roll out doing what it should be doing. That is obviously the most thing here.
Deckard2049
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The new scientist released an article on long Covid, it’s behind a paywall.Strongly disagree, especially for the long Covid aspect - 10% isn’t a miniscule risk and there is some evidence that it might be even higher.
Long COVID in a prospective cohort of home-isolated patients - Nature Medicine
Analysis of a prospectively enrolled cohort of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in Bergen, Norway, reveals a high proportion of patients who experienced long COVID symptoms at 6 months, despite being relatively young and having only mild to moderate acute COVID-19 symptoms.
This is the table they put out of symptoms reported :
This article also highlights why this issue is really not clear cut:
I am accepting of the fact some of these may be quite debilitating. But long Covid as a condition really needs to start being categorised a lot more (hard I know as we’re not even two years into this), as some of these symptoms are nowhere close to things like permanent lung damage which are seriously going to mess up your life. Give the state of the the world since the start of 2020, can we really rule out a psychological element to some of these symptoms? I’m happy to be called an ignoramus but are we seriously saying fatigue and impaired concentration are definitively caused just by Covid?
Long Covid fatigue 'reduced with exercise programme'
Researchers say a six-week exercise programme helped patients make "significant" improvement.
www.bbc.co.uk
Based on that study, we’ve reached the equivalent of what my grandmother would say; “get outside and get some fresh air and exercise and you’ll feel better”. Flippant perhaps, but can we really say that for even a few people it wouldn’t help? Posters in here bring up neighbours, colleagues, friends and family who have clearly suffered mentally the last year and a half. Can that train of thought not be extended to some of those suffering long Covid symptoms?
Like I said, my original disagreement is on the issue of how it’s always night clubs that get brought up. We’ve been unlocking in stages for months now- clubs are right at the end. I don’t agree that masks should be going, but I just think this stressing out over clubs is bizarre- and it follows on from the survey that was linked here the other day where about 1/5 people polled said they’d like them to be closed forever. It’s just weird.
And a disclaimer: I do not own or work in a night club. But I am a “young person” and I know what a majority of young people are thinking in regards to worrying about long Covid and getting back to a bit more normality.
There's still a lot of very unwell people out there that no vaccine is going to save..
I don't really want my kids under 18 having the vaccination. I don't think it's necessary..
Today's figures..
32,367 new cases and 34 new deaths
32,367 new cases and 34 new deaths
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