Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Tubey]

Flu pandemic was joint #1 on the national risk register; it was very much predicted as you say but unfortunately it seems for whatever reason that they didn’t do as much effective work as was done on the other leading threat (terrorism).

Indeed. It was complacency. I think the belief was that these serious pandemics were a result of hygiene issues in the past, squalid conditions and so on.

Even I made that mistake tbh with COVID - I thought initially it'd be largely contained regional to Asia as other epidemics had been despite the scares.

Clearly nothing was in place to react, not just in the UK but literally everywhere except a few Asian countries.

 

[Tipp blue]

Indeed - three flu epidemics in last 100 years alone that have killed as many each as COVID has. Asian, Spanish and Hong Kong flu. Many more throughout history as world trade expanded, and as the world becomes interconnected we can expect something like this every 50 years or so in the future.

The question is what you can do about it. China will continue to China so the answer is pretty much nothing we can do to prevent these as far as I'm concerned except to develop an increasingly rapid system to respond to the threat as they arise.

The creation of vaccines will become quicker and quicker, I'd imagine that by the time the next pandemic comes along the vaccine will be developed in a matter of days.
Any bit of forethought from governments now would see big money blasted into a massive vaccine making facility ready to make millions upon millions of doses at the drop of a hat.

 

[tsubaki]

Indeed. It was complacency. I think the belief was that these serious pandemics were a result of hygiene issues in the past, squalid conditions and so on.

Even I made that mistake tbh with COVID - I thought initially it'd be largely contained regional to Asia as other epidemics had been despite the scares.

Clearly nothing was in place to react, not just in the UK but literally everywhere except a few Asian countries.

TBF I think it’s the nature of what was required that played the biggest role - with terrorism, it’s politically easy to arm more cops, encourage people to report suspicious things and come out with Churchillian crap.

This on the other hand required a load of things like dedicated public health campaigns, dedicated staff looking out for things like this, stocks being built up and stored, buildings kept in reserve and manufacturing capacity being ready to deploy in an emergency.

It’s basically a list of everything successive governments have tried to get rid of in the hope of being more agile / lean or whatever.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Oh this was very much predicted. Disease X was well known, 1918 Spanish flu showed how it works, everyone knew it was coming, the UK even did pandemic planning - we just didn't know when and didn't take it seriously enough due to false alarms in recent years with SARS, MERS and Swine Flu.

Disease X is the same as "asteroid coursing to Earth" stories we get every few years mate. Its just a doomsday scenario in reality not one virus has come close to wiping the human race out certainly not since modern medicine has become so advanced.

My point was when was the last time you seen the world literally stop still over a virus? Some individual countries have come close before but Covid is a worldwide anomaly which I doubt we'll see again certainly not in our lifetime.

Obviously we'll see flu strains and similiar COV strains pop over over time as Humans will be Humans particulary in Asian countries with their treatment of wildlife but I highly doubt we'll ever be in a situation as we have been these past 12 months for a long time.

 

[davek]

TBF the vast majority of people arriving in the country are required to quarantine, it’s the nature of it that varies.

A "hundred or so per day quarantining in hotels out of 15,000 coming in each day". A third of those are hauliers and aren't going to be asked to follow the guidlelines.

But the rest are British or oversees citizens not performing a vital trade supply link.

It's woeful. They basically dont give a flying one about new variants arriving here. It's all reactive and not proactive. For that reason it's just a matter of time before we see new variants that are either more transmittable or deadly.

 

[peteblue]

The creation of vaccines will become quicker and quicker, I'd imagine that by the time the next pandemic comes along the vaccine will be developed in a matter of days.
Any bit of forethought from governments now would see big money blasted into a massive vaccine making facility ready to make millions upon millions of doses at the drop of a hat.

The U.K. had already started one before all this....

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[davek]

Dave, what is nonsensical is how you run with a stat and twist it to suit your agenda, whilst totally ignoring the simple facts that underpin that data.

There will certainly be some of those 141 area's that will be of concern to authorities. But the vast majority will be area's with very low numbers who's stats will be effected by small outbreaks in places of work or even families, all of which can be brought under control very quickly. But then you've been told this before. The overall trend is one of reducing infection rates, despite the fact that approximately 800,000 addirional tests have been carried out daily in our schools, colleges and Universities.

There is no question that the virus has been suppressed to a very great degree (thanks, Murderer Johnson for bringing it down from 60,000 per day where you put it).

But there's been a plateauing out for the last fortnight at least. Many towns in the north west and north east are in a position where ANY increase in activity when restrictions are lifted will result in a spike of cases. There is no question of that.

The very least that should happen is that any lifting of restrictions should wait until the adult population is vaccinated partially or fully. To give every adult who wants one would mean holding off the reopening of society for another 6 weeks or so. Why aren't we seeing that?

 

[Tubey]

Disease X is the same as "asteroid coursing to Earth" stories we get every few years mate. Its just a doomsday scenario in reality not one virus has come close to wiping the human race out certainly not since modern medicine has become so advanced.

My point was when was the last time you seen the world literally stop still over a virus? Some individual countries have come close before but Covid is a worldwide anomaly which I doubt we'll see again certainly not in our lifetime.

Obviously we'll see flu strains and similiar COV strains pop over over time as Humans will be Humans particulary in Asian countries with their treatment of wildlife but I highly doubt we'll ever be in a situation as we have been these past 12 months for a long time.

Only because focus now will be on improved reactions. But in terms of a pandemic like this again, I have no doubt really that we'll get another one.

 

[davek]

That Pfizer vaccine has been a massive success.

Pfizer finds Covid vaccine safe and effective for children 12 to 15

Drug firm in partnership with BioNTech to seek US emergency approval after trials found vaccine ‘well-tolerated’ in school-age children

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Moderna and Novavax – here’s what new vaccines mean for the UK rollout and the end of lockdown

The anticipated arrival of two new vaccines can boost the morale of those worried about the wait for their dose.

theconversation.com

 

[BlueToff]

The risk for who? Over 60’s? Over 50’s?

Look, I’m not anti vaxx (I know that’s like starting a conversation with “I’m not racist but”) but we can’t just write off any decision another country makes regarding the vaccine rollout as simply being political. I will happily agree that people like Dave sometimes seem to look for any opportunity to slaughter our scientists, anything the UK does and almost seem to relish in stories like this (I don’t obviously believe that he enjoys it but it sometimes comes across that way), but in this instance the decision from Germany seems to be based upon the fact that they are concerned the benefits of vaccination with the AZ vaccine for younger people (at least whilst this issue is investigated) do not outweigh the risks of Covid for most people in that cohort. Isn’t that just sensible? The blood disorder they reported is incredibly repair so for them to announce 31 suspected incidents would be off the charts.

The problem is we are so desperate as a country to end lockdown that the attitude of “just stick it in us” is what’s currently prevailing. We’re in a race against time. It’s why talk about vaccine passports gets bandied about- it’s nothing more than an incentive to “encourage people” to take the jab ASAP. The threat of exclusion from social life. It’s also why these stories get dismissed as “political”. Seriously, what does Canada have to gain by also halting the jab for people under 60? There is no gain at all for them.

At this moment in time it’s obvious we want to get as much coverage from the vaccine as possible in order to build herd immunity. That makes sense. But I know you’re around my age (mid 20’s), so can you honestly say you’re getting the vaccine because you’re worried about Covid? Or are you getting the vaccine for the benefit of society and because you’ve just had enough? Because the latter whilst noble shouldn’t be the main reason to rush to get a vaccine.

It’s a 0.01148% thing though, mate. It’s not 100s of people, it’s 31 from 2.7m.

now, I appreciate if it’s a certain cohort, then the right assessments need to be made. But keep in mind Germany has shot itself in the foot repeatedly with its vaccine roll out, especially in regards AZ, and that has already massively decreased public confidence in it. So they’ve now suspended it again, slowing down an already slow roll out, and risking another drop in confidence, based on very little evidence.

They’ll make their own decision and that’s fine. But the decision should be as plain as this - what’s a person more likely to get? Covid, or a blood clot from this jab (even though there’s no evidence to say they are linked).

As for the last bit, I’ll get the vaccine cause it’s a bit of both. I want to be protected, as much as I can be, and I want other people to be and I want life to be able to return to some form of normality

 

[Kurt.]

Syphilis is easily treated with penicillin btw. Chlamydia is also easy to treat, gonorrhoea is the resistant one.

That’s nothing to clap about

 

[BlueToff]

1% of those arriving in the country are being quarantined. I think it's safe to say they have abandoned suppression and are running with some numb nuts belief that having half the UK population partially vacinated will stop another deadly surge in autumn/winter. It wont. They know this, but they get support from people desperate to get out and mix again.

It is THE most cynical and irresponsible government this country has ever had. It should be toppled.

Dave, if you arrive in the country, from anywhere, you have to quarantine. Either in a hotel if it’s a red listed country or you have to self isolate, with a test sent to you - that you pay £170 for - on day 2 and day 5 of that 10-day period. Test negative twice; and you can end the isolation.

the only people who won’t be isolating on arrival are those who need to not so for their jobs - I.e. all the lorries coming in from Europe, planes landing for cargo and trade and the pilots etc etc

 

[BlueToff]

I agree with limitations on indoor activities as thats where infection takes place. Outdoor activities are very safe so allow as much as possible.

We’ll see a rise in cases because of yesterday and today, no doubt about it.

1000s of people in the parks in cities. Even in small groups, even outdoors, there will have been spread. There were too many people too close together.

the test of it is, when the cases do spike, what the realistic threshold to push stuff back is - which is what is up for debate. Some (we know who) will say it should be low, some will say it should be high.

We (as in, the general public) don’t make that decision. We have to hope whatever decision is ultimately made is the right one (not holding out for that but, what else can we do)

 

[BlueToff]

Flu pandemic was joint #1 on the national risk register; it was very much predicted as you say but unfortunately it seems for whatever reason that they didn’t do as much effective work as was done on the other leading threat (terrorism).

Europe and the west in general followed the flu pandemic model. The countries that had success and sustained it last year with keeping transmission low followed the SARS model. Australia and New Zealand were helped in that by their geographical location and lack of population densitiy.

SARS model obviously involved test track and trace which it’s fair to say the eastern nations had nailed down very well.