Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

Smallpox is the only virus humans have ever eradicated completely. With something as contagious as Covid you'll destroy the economy/society trying to eradicate it fully imo.

Its going to be here for a long time until it either runs out of steam or mutates to one of the other Coronavirus strains and be just mild in nature regardless of vaccines.

Even if the vaccine prevents many transmissions until the world is fully vaccinated there is little you can do as an individual country other than banning entries and exits out of the country.

None of this is true, though. For a start, at no point did I say eradicate it; I said prevent its spread.

With an effective detection and containment strategy (for all pandemic disease, not just this) there’s no reason why economic or social damage would take place; in fact you would be protecting society and the economy by doing it. We’ve lost tens / hundreds of billions and a hundred thousand lives because we did not protect ourselves properly.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

None of this is true, though. For a start, at no point did I say eradicate it; I said prevent its spread.

With an effective detection and containment strategy (for all pandemic disease, not just this) there’s no reason why economic or social damage would take place; in fact you would be protecting society and the economy by doing it. We’ve lost tens / hundreds of billions and a hundred thousand lives because we did not protect ourselves properly.

But we never did this for the Flu etc. No one in the world predicted this could happen. Majority of viruses that spring up are either too deadly to spread far wide (SARS, Ebola) or not deadly enough to trouble the world (numerous flu strains over the years).

Covid has fallen into that rare middle group of being potentially deadly but not deadly enough to easily prevent spreading.

I know this argument is heading back to your track and trace stance but we may never get another virus like this for another 200+ years and quite frankly Western population won't ever take to it.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

 

[Mrk]

Worth remembering that we saw transmission and deaths fall to an extremely low level last summer, which just happens to coincide with when our measures properly start to ease this year - provided we see a similar trend, that gives us another few months to get younger people vaccinated to prevent as much transmission in September/October.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Worth remembering that we saw transmission and deaths fall to an extremely low level last summer, which just happens to coincide with when our measures properly start to ease this year - provided we see a similar trend, that gives us another few months to get younger people vaccinated to prevent as much transmission in September/October.

This is why I agree with reopening all outdoor activities now. If for example outdoor pubs were open yesterday with proper measures you're less likely to see the park problems that occurred yesterday.

We need to get the balance right between science and reality.

 

[Mrk]

This is why I agree with reopening all outdoor activities now. If for example outdoor pubs were open yesterday with proper measures you're less likely to see the park problems that occurred yesterday.

We need to get the balance right between science and reality.

I'm not sure I agree with doing it all at once - in fairness, for probably the first time, I think the Govt have got it pretty much spot on with the caution they are taking this time around. Every single easing measure will see a spike in transmission, better to try and smooth it out.

 

[grandjoeblue]

I'm not sure I agree with doing it all at once - in fairness, for probably the first time, I think the Govt have got it pretty much spot on with the caution they are taking this time around. Every single easing measure will see a spike in transmission, better to try and smooth it out.

I agree with limitations on indoor activities as thats where infection takes place. Outdoor activities are very safe so allow as much as possible.

 

[Mrk]

I agree with limitations on indoor activities as thats where infection takes place. Outdoor activities are very safe so allow as much as possible.

On the surface, you're right - but how we ease the lockdown has to be based heavily upon behavioural science - if we fling the doors open to all outdoor activities at once, I can imagine that will have some negative impact on how cautious we are as people. It's not like getting a drink in a beer garden is months away - it's close, thank god.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Lol.

A/ it's not my article, I linked to it.

B/ it's "nonsensical" because it shows 141 places in England with rising levels of Covid19...even before we see resttrictions being lifted in any substantial way?


Dear me.

Dave, what is nonsensical is how you run with a stat and twist it to suit your agenda, whilst totally ignoring the simple facts that underpin that data.

There will certainly be some of those 141 area's that will be of concern to authorities. But the vast majority will be area's with very low numbers who's stats will be effected by small outbreaks in places of work or even families, all of which can be brought under control very quickly. But then you've been told this before. The overall trend is one of reducing infection rates, despite the fact that approximately 800,000 addirional tests have been carried out daily in our schools, colleges and Universities.

 

[tsubaki]

But we never did this for the Flu etc. No one in the world predicted this could happen. Majority of viruses that spring up are either too deadly to spread far wide (SARS, Ebola) or not deadly enough to trouble the world (numerous flu strains over the years).

Covid has fallen into that rare middle group of being potentially deadly but not deadly enough to easily prevent spreading.

I know this argument is heading back to your track and trace stance but we may never get another virus like this for another 200+ years and quite frankly Western population won't ever take to it.

We never did it for the flu because, to be honest, the lives of likes of you and me were not considered worth protecting; it’s only relatively recently that flu jabs started (which probably save 10000 lives a year plus), and even then we’ve done nothing much apart from that.

The important point though is that by having a system that can protect against disease like this, you save money as well as lives. This isn’t a 200 year type event, it’s a 50 year type one and they will probably become more regular than that (not least because people have seen how much damage they cause).

 

[Tubey]

But we never did this for the Flu etc. No one in the world predicted this could happen. Majority of viruses that spring up are either too deadly to spread far wide (SARS, Ebola) or not deadly enough to trouble the world (numerous flu strains over the years).

Covid has fallen into that rare middle group of being potentially deadly but not deadly enough to easily prevent spreading.

I know this argument is heading back to your track and trace stance but we may never get another virus like this for another 200+ years and quite frankly Western population won't ever take to it.

Oh this was very much predicted. Disease X was well known, 1918 Spanish flu showed how it works, everyone knew it was coming, the UK even did pandemic planning - we just didn't know when and didn't take it seriously enough due to false alarms in recent years with SARS, MERS and Swine Flu.

 

[Prevenger17]

I know this argument is heading back to your track and trace stance but we may never get another virus like this for another 200+ years and quite frankly Western population won't ever take to it.

That is an incredibly uninformed estimate

 

[Tubey]

Worth remembering that we saw transmission and deaths fall to an extremely low level last summer, which just happens to coincide with when our measures properly start to ease this year - provided we see a similar trend, that gives us another few months to get younger people vaccinated to prevent as much transmission in September/October.

There's not much evidence this is seasonal yet. Indeed whilst the UK was shooting up in cases in Jan/Feb, worldwide the cases were actually falling.

What's evident is that its affecting populations in waves, but not necessarily predictable waves. There's an outside chance at a surge around July or August, but even so if its not killing people or flooding hospitals then we really do need to adopt more of a "who cares" attitude to this.

 

[tsubaki]

Oh this was very much predicted. Disease X was well known, 1918 Spanish flu showed how it works, everyone knew it was coming, the UK even did pandemic planning - we just didn't know when and didn't take it seriously enough due to false alarms in recent years with SARS, MERS and Swine Flu.

Flu pandemic was joint #1 on the national risk register; it was very much predicted as you say but unfortunately it seems for whatever reason that they didn’t do as much effective work as was done on the other leading threat (terrorism).

 

[Tubey]

That is an incredibly uninformed estimate

Indeed - three flu epidemics in last 100 years alone that have killed as many each as COVID has. Asian, Spanish and Hong Kong flu. Many more throughout history as world trade expanded, and as the world becomes interconnected we can expect something like this every 50 years or so in the future.

The question is what you can do about it. China will continue to China so the answer is pretty much nothing we can do to prevent these as far as I'm concerned except to develop an increasingly rapid system to respond to the threat as they arise.