Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Barnfred 55]

There is no question that the virus has been suppressed to a very great degree (thanks, Murderer Johnson for bringing it down from 60,000 per day where you put it).

But there's been a plateauing out for the last fortnight at least. Many towns in the north west and north east are in a position where ANY increase in activity when restrictions are lifted will result in a spike of cases. There is no question of that.

The very least that should happen is that any lifting of restrictions should wait until the adult population is vaccinated partially or fully. To give every adult who wants one would mean holding off the reopening of society for another 6 weeks or so. Why aren't we seeing that?

The infection rates have plateaued Dave I agree, but as I mentioned before one of the main reasons for this has been the huge increase in testing since the schools colleges and universities re-opened. Just in schools they were averaging 1200 positive tests per day during the first 2 weeks, and these will be reflected in the daily new infection figure. And as I've mentioned to you before Dave, the majority of the would have been asymptomatic and by asking these people and others they came into contact with to isolate, we are reducing the infection even more. It's no coincidence that the daily infection rates for the last 4 days since the schools closed for Easter, have been the lowest since September.

I think to get an accurate assessment we need to look at infection rates at the end of the 2 week Easter break and then compare with what it was immediately before the schools returned. My guess is that you will see a reduction of maybe 30/40%. But that is around 10% a week and it was reducing by around 25% a week before that, so it's still a slowing down.

The second thing Dave is that we aren't due to have given all adults their first dose until the end of July. This is actually 16 weeks, not 6, and I'm afraid our hospitality and retail industry cannot wait another 16 weeks to open. There probably won't be a hospitality and retail industry to open up again if they do.

 

[Barnfred 55]

We’ll see a rise in cases because of yesterday and today, no doubt about it.

I don't think we will Toff. The rate of infection outside is nowhere near as bad as inside. I'm not too worked up about people meeting outside per se, it's the ones that leave their mess and rubbish lying around I'm more bothered by. It's disgraceful really and shows a total lack of consideration for others.

 

[roydo]

Folk really need to drill down on a headline Per 100,000 "score". And % changes.

Portishead was surpressed the other week, then a 100% rise. 2 to 4. That translated into a 50 to 99 per 100,000 dark green colour on the map.

Thats with circa 4000 school tests every week, apparently. Not 100% (sic) sure they are all doing that if I am honest. But still, there were 4 positive tests, zero hospital admissions, and zero deaths.

 

[Tipp blue]

Folk really need to drill down on a headline Per 100,000 "score". And % changes.

Portishead was surpressed the other week, then a 100% rise. 2 to 4. That translated into a 50 to 99 per 100,000 dark green colour on the map.

Thats with circa 4000 school tests every week, apparently. Not 100% (sic) sure they are all doing that if I am honest. But still, there were 4 positive tests, zero hospital admissions, and zero deaths.

Too many metrics being used when only 1 thing really matters.. hospital capacity.

 

[roydo]

Too many metrics being used when only 1 thing really matters.. hospital capacity.

Quite. They have been crystal clear about that ever since the road map was set out. The last briefing was pretty reassuring that the plan seems to be working. It was close to, but not quite, a reversal of that flat fish graphic a few weeks ago, with the massive head, (over 50s) at risk/dead, with the long tail, (under 50), largely unaffected, hosptial/death wise.

 

[COYBL25]

Quite. They have been crystal clear about that ever since the road map was set out. The last briefing was pretty reassuring that the plan seems to be working. It was close to, but not quite, a reversal of that flat fish graphic a few weeks ago, with the massive head, (over 50s) at risk/dead, with the long tail, (under 50), largely unaffected, hosptial/death wise.

The press seem desperate to highlight rising cases, due to hospital admissions and deaths going into such a rapid decline.

 

[roydo]

The press seem desperate to highlight rising cases, due to hospital admissions and deaths going into such a rapid decline.

Its not just the press is it?

That said, other than the covid briefings, I havnt watched or read hardly anything corona related in the MSM.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Im gonna say it - with this slump in Vaccines in April I do think things should be moved back a month (hairdressers aside).

CBA with infection rates rising in April when all the tossers are getting hammered in beer gardens.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

And your point is ?

The German suspension of AZ is a sovereign decision.

Nothing to do with the EU or whatever regulator says or does not say




.

 

[Goat]

Not even messing, but ive got a weird red bruise on my hand.

@davek help me.

I sent it to my brother who works for the NHS and he said "At least people can come to your funeral".

 

[whiteshadow]

Im gonna say it - with this slump in Vaccines in April I do think things should be moved back a month (hairdressers aside).

CBA with infection rates rising in April when all the tossers are getting hammered in beer gardens.

They'll end up delaying it if the hospitalisations start getting too high. Within reason I think they will tolerate high infection rates.

They're better to test it by easing restrictions as at least they'll find out and businesses need the money urgently.

 

[Goat]

Snail republic.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Not even messing, but ive got a weird red bruise on my hand.

@davek help me.

I sent it to my brother who works for the NHS and he said "At least people can come to your funeral".

Thought it was young people at risk

 

[roydo]

Snail republic.

Not good that. Obvs.

I assume that lock down will not mess with their vaccine roll up. More than they have mucked it up.

 

[Goat]

Thought it was young people at risk

I am young!

Not good that. Obvs.

I assume that lock down will not mess with their vaccine roll up. More than they have mucked it up.

Seems like they have screwed the whole thing.