Oh I'm not advocating it as a way to do it mate. I need to make that clear. I think it's far too risky. There'd be about 400,000 deaths.
I'm just stating the fact that, so far, the only way to know that you're 'safe' from this illness is if you get it and recover.
So my point really was, where does that leave us?
In my mind, the only way a 'herd immunity' plan would have worked would have been if we'd have had a load of beds available and ventilators and stuff. Cancelled all large gatherings for a set time (continuously reviewed etc). So there could then be a more calculated approach to it. You could mitigate for a certain amount of people getting it, and then know you had the systems in place to handle those who needed the care.
The worrying thing was it was the plan this time last week, but they hadn't done enough of the prep work which would have needed to go into it. That's why they've had to change their approach so much.
Absolutely mate, for a time it seemed like the main strategy worryingly, but thankfully the UK seem to have changed tack over a week. But the cost of the precious time lost may be felt. Hopefully not.
To me its fight or flight, you either confront the virus - fight, or you self distance as much as practically possible - flight. Both are valid ways of coping under normal adverse circumstances. I dont think we can fight this until their is vaccine, or at least better treatment. So its about that period in between. It lives normal life in ribbons, but it just might be the best we can do as a form of life never mind nationalistic stuff. To me it boils down to morality and humanity, a test of society of what it values, either self distance to protect, ourselves, ill people and older people or crack under the pressure of self isolation. Its a huge test.
Personally i think we are just at the beginning of a four week surge, in that time we will all be faced with a personal responsibility to flatten the curve, this isnt going away in my opinion and its not inconceivable that his lasts into the winter months to the new year, there may be periods of respite in between.
I dont think the purposeful herd immunity would have worked myself, the cost was to much, that is not to say countries wont get there naturally but it will be absolute delayed carnage and hopefully a vaccine comes out before we hit those levels.
Luckily for the UK and Ireland though, we are both islands, both have individual challenges but if we can get on top of this, a decision can be made to shut borders and isolate the country, which might protect against as second wave - its probably harder in Irelands case, given we are still part of the EU.