Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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I think there has been quite a few countries in this time of crisis we need to look at and ask why have they coped far better than the UK. Obviously certain ideologies won't be very palatable in a particular country, but hopefully we can look at them dispassionately and take some positive lessons forward (this won't happen)

I suspect among those whose job is the understanding of pandemics, this will provide a rich source for study. Among the political class, I fear much less so.
 
It's easy to be concerned about the reasons for the very careful and gradual lifting of lockdown if done too quickly costing lives.

The truth is it's nowhere near as black and white as that, the lives and livelihoods lost by extending it longer than absolutely necessary are on the other side of the ledger.

The disasterous spike in deaths from non coronavirus conditions, and for most people far more serious illnesses has to be thought of, delays to cancer treatments or non attendance at GP referrals, serious heart disease and other fatal conditions have all spiked. The reallocation of resources really can't come quick enough. Already an awful lot of consultants and doctors have been told to take their annual leave due to them now, while this coronavirus pandemic and the cancellation of operations, allows them to - as they'll be rushed off their feet once all these very serious non coronavirus operations are scheduled and resources are spread more evenly on need and not media attention.

The cost to lives of deteriorating mental health for some and a wrecked economy for all with sky high borrowing can't be underestimated either, both in livelihoods and actual lives lost.

It's not as simple as extending lockdown saves lives, by going on too long it could easily cost them.
Yeah I've said from the start that balancing the 2 will be extremely difficult and a lot will be to do with the timing of decisions.
 
Is it me or has it all gone very quiet on the people who will be doing the contact tracing here?

My take, for what it's worth, is that at the moment the Government have announced lots of things which aren't ready (I'll leave others to decide the motive) and targets which they cannot reasonably reach. There is a gap between what the Government are saying is happening and what can actually be delivered.

Regionally everyone is looking around to see what everyone else is doing to see if they can make any progress or to establish where they should be positioned as far as response.

With that uncertainty, local difference is starting to creep in and now decisions, which should be nationally driven and locally tailored are having to be made solely at local level - so one area opens schools while another keeps them closed etc.

It's a failure of command and control, and a departure from following science and strategy in favour of panic about the economic impact. Classic example of trying to play catch up because of poor prep and then having too juggle many competing demands to address.

The tracing isn't ready; schools are uncertain; scientists at SAGE don't seem equipped to adequately persuade, influence or challenge; messaging is unraveling because of hypocrisy in Government and the competing demands are causing uncertainty in Government which is rippling across the rest of the country.
 
Finaly

What we need now is some nice responsible person with no agenda to go through it all and pick out the important bits.

For me our biggest issue has been our testing capacity and I'm particularly interested in discussions around that topic
 
I dont think it's down enough to start up the economy again and ease limits on family gatherings etc though. This is a recipe for disaster.
I agree mate. Way too soon and given that the majority of the British public are a bunch of pig ignorant selfish goons, this is a recipe for disaster.

theyve only relaxed rules to deflect from the Cummings fiasco. It will backfire on them when the R rate soars above 1.

The Govt need to answer for their inept handling of this situation.
 
For me, the issue is that we have people still banging the drum for complete suppression of the virus, when in reality it’s been shown that’s not possible, especially this far down the line. In reality we have a similar R number, which people obsessed over, as other countries when they took similar measures to us now.

Granted, everything this government touches seems to turn to excrement, but there’s been no massive second wave reported elsewhere. Why after banging the drum about how we should have learned from Italy, Spain etc early into this should we now ignore the fact that the worse case scenario that people have decided will happen, isn’t?
 
For me, the issue is that we have people still banging the drum for complete suppression of the virus, when in reality it’s been shown that’s not possible, especially this far down the line. In reality we have a similar R number, which people obsessed over, as other countries when they took similar measures to us now.

Granted, everything this government touches seems to turn to excrement, but there’s been no massive second wave reported elsewhere. Why after banging the drum about how we should have learned from Italy, Spain etc early into this should we now ignore the fact that the worse case scenario that people have decided will happen, isn’t?
Any working out for this mert?
 
I agree mate. Way too soon and given that the majority of the British public are a bunch of pig ignorant selfish goons, this is a recipe for disaster.

theyve only relaxed rules to deflect from the Cummings fiasco. It will backfire on them when the R rate soars above 1.

The Govt need to answer for their inept handling of this situation.

I find it sad that so many people in this thread seem to think so little of the general population.

Surely you’re not going to say you vote Labour too ?
 
For me, the issue is that we have people still banging the drum for complete suppression of the virus, when in reality it’s been shown that’s not possible, especially this far down the line. In reality we have a similar R number, which people obsessed over, as other countries when they took similar measures to us now.

Granted, everything this government touches seems to turn to excrement, but there’s been no massive second wave reported elsewhere. Why after banging the drum about how we should have learned from Italy, Spain etc early into this should we now ignore the fact that the worse case scenario that people have decided will happen, isn’t?

The R number may be similar In some countries but the proportion infected here is higher, and therefore the chance of any individual catching the disease higher at the point of coming out of lockdown.

Currently new infections in Spain, Italy, France, Germany much much lower than here.

Worth noting the Ireland’s R number estimated to be below 0.5 currently. They have handled this so much better than us.
 
Finaly

What we need now is some nice responsible person with no agenda to go through it all and pick out the important bits.

For me our biggest issue has been our testing capacity and I'm particularly interested in discussions around that topic
I nominate @davek and @peteblue. At least you know they'll balance each other out...

*3 weeks go by*

'We jointly conclude that Keir Starmer is a numpty and is a terrible lawyer and worse Labour leader...SAGE?...what about it?....what do the minutes say?... One thing at a time...'
 
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