Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[xena]

I’d get looking at the Robin Hood camp in Rhyl, that’s only if they lift the sentries on the Welsh border.

your joking it'll probably cost more than Greece this year.

 

[Furey1878]

Found this a bit confusing on the Rebuild Plan:

People may exercise outside as many times each day as they wish. For example, this would include angling and tennis. You will still not be able to use areas like playgrounds, outdoor gyms or ticketed outdoor leisure venues, where there is a higher risk of close contact and touching surfaces. You can only exercise with up to one person from outside your household – this means you should not play team sports, except with members of your own household.

Tennis isn't a team sport so can you play tennis with someone outside your household where you're both touching the tennis balls?

You play whilst wearing Head branded hazmats

 

[daza_1973]

I was going to post the following on my Facebook but thought I’d stick it in here first and see what the reaction is. I’m literally just interpreting statistics. I’m not attempting to make any suggestions on how people should live their lives over the next few weeks or months. Those decisions will be partly dictated by the government decisions and also your own judgement.

I’ve just spent a little time on the website of the Office of National Statistics (LINK) looking in to the death rate from Covid-19 to see what the real risks are and to see who is really vulnerable. The results were both shocking (because it’s not something I’d seen reported in the news) and not shocking (because it seems to show what I’d expect).

The first death reported in the UK occurred in the week ending 13th March. In the following 8 weeks up to the week ending 1st May there have been a total of 33,365 deaths relating to Covid-19. It is totally unknown how many of these deaths were actually caused by Covid-19 as the only reported stats just show those that die while having the Covid-19 virus in their body at the time of death. It’s possible they may have been showing absolutely no symptoms of Covid-19 and their death was caused by something else. We’ll never know the real numbers of actual Covid-19 deaths.

What I have found interesting however if the deaths split by age range.

Age 0 to 39 - 0.64% of total covid-19 related deaths up to 1st May 2020
Age 40 to 41 - 1.52%
Age 50 to 59 - 5.03%
Age 60 to 69 - 10.59%
Age 70 to 79 - 23.64%
Age 80 to 99 - 58.58%

To me it seems very clear that those most at risk are the over 60s and that the older you are, the greater the risk. That sounds familiar, that just sounds like death in general. The older you are, the more you are at risk of dying.

But what shocked me the most is the relatively small percentage of people under the age of 60 who have died relating to Covid-19. Just 7.19% of all Covid-19 deaths have been under the age of 60 and an even smaller 2.16% if you are under 40. Some of you may say that is still too many, well yes, no one wants anyone dying but the cold hard truth is that people die of illnesses every single day. Life is a risk, life has a finite time limit, life comes to an end. But if you are sat at home in lockdown and too scared to go back to work or send your kids back to school or to go to the supermarket more than once a week, just look at the statistics and do your own risk assessment.

If you are under 60 there is only a very small chance that you will be adversely affected by Covid-19. If you are under the age of 40 this risk becomes even smaller, so small that it shouldn’t really be any real concern or affect your life too much. So when the government tell you to ‘Be Alert’, maybe you should be alert to the risks of Covid-19. Children will potentially be returning back to school in the next few weeks because they are in the very lowest of risk categories. The statistics show that those children will be relatively safe and at very little risk. What parents need to be aware of in the coming months is that children shouldn’t be spending time with the elderly. Unfortunately the only way to keep the death rate as low as possible is to keep the over 60s as isolated as possible. Most over 60s are going to be retired and therefore won’t need to return to work. Although they may want their lives to return to normal, they are the ones that need to make the sacrifice and continue their lockdown.

I'm 46 and off the radar apparently

 

[Nymzee]

Don't want to go but unless it gets cancelled ill loose my money as far as i know.

The flights just won't be on. UK won't let people travel outside for holiday I don't think.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I was going to post the following on my Facebook but thought I’d stick it in here first and see what the reaction is. I’m literally just interpreting statistics. I’m not attempting to make any suggestions on how people should live their lives over the next few weeks or months. Those decisions will be partly dictated by the government decisions and also your own judgement.

I’ve just spent a little time on the website of the Office of National Statistics (LINK) looking in to the death rate from Covid-19 to see what the real risks are and to see who is really vulnerable. The results were both shocking (because it’s not something I’d seen reported in the news) and not shocking (because it seems to show what I’d expect).

The first death reported in the UK occurred in the week ending 13th March. In the following 8 weeks up to the week ending 1st May there have been a total of 33,365 deaths relating to Covid-19. It is totally unknown how many of these deaths were actually caused by Covid-19 as the only reported stats just show those that die while having the Covid-19 virus in their body at the time of death. It’s possible they may have been showing absolutely no symptoms of Covid-19 and their death was caused by something else. We’ll never know the real numbers of actual Covid-19 deaths.

What I have found interesting however if the deaths split by age range.

Age 0 to 39 - 0.64% of total covid-19 related deaths up to 1st May 2020
Age 40 to 41 - 1.52%
Age 50 to 59 - 5.03%
Age 60 to 69 - 10.59%
Age 70 to 79 - 23.64%
Age 80 to 99 - 58.58%

To me it seems very clear that those most at risk are the over 60s and that the older you are, the greater the risk. That sounds familiar, that just sounds like death in general. The older you are, the more you are at risk of dying.

But what shocked me the most is the relatively small percentage of people under the age of 60 who have died relating to Covid-19. Just 7.19% of all Covid-19 deaths have been under the age of 60 and an even smaller 2.16% if you are under 40. Some of you may say that is still too many, well yes, no one wants anyone dying but the cold hard truth is that people die of illnesses every single day. Life is a risk, life has a finite time limit, life comes to an end. But if you are sat at home in lockdown and too scared to go back to work or send your kids back to school or to go to the supermarket more than once a week, just look at the statistics and do your own risk assessment.

If you are under 60 there is only a very small chance that you will be adversely affected by Covid-19. If you are under the age of 40 this risk becomes even smaller, so small that it shouldn’t really be any real concern or affect your life too much. So when the government tell you to ‘Be Alert’, maybe you should be alert to the risks of Covid-19. Children will potentially be returning back to school in the next few weeks because they are in the very lowest of risk categories. The statistics show that those children will be relatively safe and at very little risk. What parents need to be aware of in the coming months is that children shouldn’t be spending time with the elderly. Unfortunately the only way to keep the death rate as low as possible is to keep the over 60s as isolated as possible. Most over 60s are going to be retired and therefore won’t need to return to work. Although they may want their lives to return to normal, they are the ones that need to make the sacrifice and continue their lockdown.

It does appear that coronavirus is particularly lethal to the elderly.

But it doesn't mean there are few adverse impacts if you are younger - I’ll try to dig out the UK hospitalization stats but from what I recall quite a significant percentage were non elderly. Sure, like Boris did, with good medical care they will likely survive but we do not yet know if there are long term repercussions - there have been several reports of permanent lung damage for instance.

Also would be interesting to know relative risk for a person’s age group - for a 40 year old for instance what is the chance of hospitalization/death due to coronavirus compared to say heart attack.

Not trying to be a “Debbie Downer” but humans are notoriously bad at accurately judging risk and a message of “shouldn’t be a real concern for under 40s or affect your life” has some real downsides to it.

 

[Goat]

However, it is to what extent that will be vital. For example, I've been told that the modelling suggests that the schools going back will raise the r0 rate by 0.2-0.3

Now, the government aren't sure where we are yet (somewhere above 0.5 and up to 1), so that in itself could push the rate above 1 without everything else.

Relaxed rules on employment, more people on public transport and reduced restrictions on exercising and meeting up are all due within the next two weeks.

Each of those you would suspect could easily have a similar increase, so when you combine them all together it looks unrealistic to think we'll keep it below 1.

I'm more concerned whether we can keep it below 1.5 as I have the growing belief that they've accepted that more people will need to die in the coming months.

They've upped capacity with the nightingales in place etc., have more ventilators and staff are far more thoroughly trained - will they try and manage it below this?

Sadly I think the thinking is that we could handle the peak death rate, which was 1172 a day I believe, so anything below 1300 a day will be considered a success.

Tory death cult.

 

[Goat]

It does appear that coronavirus is particularly lethal to the elderly.

But it doesn't mean there are few adverse impacts if you are younger - I’ll try to dig out the UK hospitalization stats but from what I recall quite a significant percentage were non elderly. Sure, like Boris did, with good medical care they will likely survive but we do not yet know if there are long term repercussions - there have been several reports of permanent lung damage for instance.

Also would be interesting to know relative risk for a person’s age group - for a 40 year old for instance what is the chance of hospitalization/death due to coronavirus compared to say heart attack.

Not trying to be a “Debbie Downer” but humans are notoriously bad at accurately judging risk and a message of “shouldn’t be a real concern for under 40s or affect your life” has some real downsides to it.

Scares me so much that large portions of the world think this illness only targets the over 60s.

Terrifies me.

 

[marnie]

Greece seems to have applied a good deal of common sense in how they have dealt with this pandemic, they seem very alert to the needs of their people...

No new cases in 4 days since restrictions have eased here.

 

[peteblue]

We are second in the world for deaths. I wouldn’t say we lined up.
I think from an economic perspective the stimulus provided has been very good, albeit slow and not perfect. The policy seemed to be let’s look and see what everyone else is doing first (that isn’t a dig, it’s an observation)

From a health perspective I think they’ve been found lacking. I think they were slow to react, got their original policy wrong, were not draconian enough with their measures or clear enough with their message and I think the got caught up in the wrong things (like 100k tests - which they didn’t meet - rather than focussing on track and trace solutions).

You can think they’ve done well from an economic stimulus perspective and not think they’ve done well from a health perspective.

We have larger populations than both France and Italy. We have a much larger population than Spain. Our number line up with these countries....

 

[COYBL25]

Don't want to go but unless it gets cancelled ill loose my money as far as i know.

I’m in the same boat mate, except I’ve booked for Spain.

You have to wait for them to cancel or you’ll lose the lot.

The Martin Lewis website is very good for explaining the ins and outs of it all.

No matter what that nugget O’Leary says, there won’t be any foreign hols for Brits this Summer.

 

[peteblue]

What that says to me is stay in your home until you fecking die. Great that...NOT!!

If all the under 60’s get back to work, then the over 60’s will have full use of the pubs during work hours.....

 

[LinekersLegs]

Scares me so much that large portions of the world think this illness only targets the over 60s.

Terrifies me.

Know the CDC at one point said 20% of hospitalizations were in under 44s but despite being sure I saw it somewhere can’t find equivalent UK data. In the US of course that has other impacts beyond health - most people couldn’t easily afford a hospital stay, will likely bankrupt a lot of them.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing...

www.cdc.gov

Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, start highlight36%end highlight were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged start highlight≤19end highlight years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).

 

[peteblue]

Our numbers line up so well they’ve stopped using the national comparison chart.

I don’t particularly like using comparison charts or numbers, but as a claim was made, obviously based on numbers, they had to be challenged.....and our numbers do line up....

 

[OGG]

We have larger populations than both France and Italy. We have a much larger population than Spain. Our number line up with these countries....

Er - we don’t have a larger population than France. And our deaths are considerably higher despite the epidemic hitting us later.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Don't want to go but unless it gets cancelled ill loose my money as far as i know.

We were supposed to be going Milan in June for our lads 21st, we got straight on to the company we had booked with about cancelling the holiday and getting a refund, they wouldn't give us a refund but have kept the booking open so when we're able to go we can just send them the new dates we want.