Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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-Rob- said:
I was going to post the following on my Facebook but thought I’d stick it in here first and see what the reaction is. I’m literally just interpreting statistics. I’m not attempting to make any suggestions on how people should live their lives over the next few weeks or months. Those decisions will be partly dictated by the government decisions and also your own judgement.

I’ve just spent a little time on the website of the Office of National Statistics (LINK) looking in to the death rate from Covid-19 to see what the real risks are and to see who is really vulnerable. The results were both shocking (because it’s not something I’d seen reported in the news) and not shocking (because it seems to show what I’d expect).

The first death reported in the UK occurred in the week ending 13th March. In the following 8 weeks up to the week ending 1st May there have been a total of 33,365 deaths relating to Covid-19. It is totally unknown how many of these deaths were actually caused by Covid-19 as the only reported stats just show those that die while having the Covid-19 virus in their body at the time of death. It’s possible they may have been showing absolutely no symptoms of Covid-19 and their death was caused by something else. We’ll never know the real numbers of actual Covid-19 deaths.

What I have found interesting however if the deaths split by age range.

Age 0 to 39 - 0.64% of total covid-19 related deaths up to 1st May 2020
Age 40 to 41 - 1.52%
Age 50 to 59 - 5.03%
Age 60 to 69 - 10.59%
Age 70 to 79 - 23.64%
Age 80 to 99 - 58.58%

To me it seems very clear that those most at risk are the over 60s and that the older you are, the greater the risk. That sounds familiar, that just sounds like death in general. The older you are, the more you are at risk of dying.

But what shocked me the most is the relatively small percentage of people under the age of 60 who have died relating to Covid-19. Just 7.19% of all Covid-19 deaths have been under the age of 60 and an even smaller 2.16% if you are under 40. Some of you may say that is still too many, well yes, no one wants anyone dying but the cold hard truth is that people die of illnesses every single day. Life is a risk, life has a finite time limit, life comes to an end. But if you are sat at home in lockdown and too scared to go back to work or send your kids back to school or to go to the supermarket more than once a week, just look at the statistics and do your own risk assessment.

If you are under 60 there is only a very small chance that you will be adversely affected by Covid-19. If you are under the age of 40 this risk becomes even smaller, so small that it shouldn’t really be any real concern or affect your life too much. So when the government tell you to ‘Be Alert’, maybe you should be alert to the risks of Covid-19. Children will potentially be returning back to school in the next few weeks because they are in the very lowest of risk categories. The statistics show that those children will be relatively safe and at very little risk. What parents need to be aware of in the coming months is that children shouldn’t be spending time with the elderly. Unfortunately the only way to keep the death rate as low as possible is to keep the over 60s as isolated as possible. Most over 60s are going to be retired and therefore won’t need to return to work. Although they may want their lives to return to normal, they are the ones that need to make the sacrifice and continue their lockdown.
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What it says to me is, if you are under 60 get back to work immediately......
 
arminisgod said:
why? It hasn't happened in Germany, Greece, Austria, Switzerland etc and Denmark today have said they are certain there won't be a '2nd wave'
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While there isn't any certainty, their death rate and total number of infections suggest that up to now they've been more successful in dealing with the virus.

It's only conjecture of course, but it's not unreasonable to consider that they may, perhaps, deal with the virus more effectively in the future as well.

From my own professional experience, the social-distancing measures in the country haven't been strictly adhered to and especially in the last five to ten days.

The worst case scenario of a rise in cases or the better scenario, but not perfect, a reduction in the rate that deaths slows are arguably more likely here.

To use a football analogy: Sheff United came up and have done well because they're organised, prepared and have worked as a unit. Norwich city came up and...
 
peteblue said:
Our numbers line up with Italy and Spain and France...all of whom went into early lockdown, were they on holiday as well....
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They were taken by surprise, we saw what was happening there and did nothing.

We had the luxury of a warning and didnt heed it.

We saw dead lying in hospital wards and turned our heads whilst we watched horse racing.
 
NilSatisOptimum said:
Looking at Greece a country apparently that's has all it's services massacred by EU central bank a favoured geographic route of people fleeing warn torn countries. 11 million people and 151 COVID Deaths. You would be forgiven its remote island as well. They deserve much credit in how they have handled this virus.
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They really have stood up to he plate over here.The government and the people.
 
arminisgod said:
why? It hasn't happened in Germany, Greece, Austria, Switzerland etc and Denmark today have said they are certain there won't be a '2nd wave'
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It takes few weeks, most of those countries are coming out of their lock-downs and their current numbers are from things that happened 2 weeks ago and beyond, I will keep you guys posted in the next few days, but look at our chart (Daily new cases) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/lebanon/ for the past few weeks all our cases were contacts of previous cases, this past few days they are cases without any contact with a previous case, i know our numbers are nothing compared to what's happening in your country but jumping from 3 to 30 is 10X, hopefully just a blip, will keep you posted in the next few days
 
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