Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Harryflashman]

Yeah it was Neil Fergusons science that locked the place down. Same guy who got caught breaking his own rules to see the woman he's having an affair with lol couldn't make it up.

I'm glad though as hopefully we see the last of him now, while I agree the lockdown is necessary, yer man Ferguson is a wrongun. I think his career has been a case of money rules science. His models are always over inflated and I have a feeling his models are based on whoever is funding him and their agenda.

"1. In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

2. In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.

In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.

3. In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.

It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species.

4. In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE."

this guy has had a stellar career and been the person that governments of all colours choose to listen to but apparently in the last couple of days the grade A hatchet job on him has painted him out to be a absolute balloon who should be ignored at all costs as it seems he’s an idiot .

now I’ve No real clue on his history but if he’s OTS I’m not sure if effects his ability to perform his job I mean he’s certainly a huge hypocrite but more importantly if he’s that incompetent and inaccurate then Surely the people in authority that choose to listen to him are Even worse ?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Can’t be an option as Spanish Government aren’t MURDERERS.

Asesinos

 

[Barnfred 55]

Rather than just looking at the headline number of new cases, you also need to look at the percentage of positive tests.

I havn't checked it, but if the number of new cases was rising against a background drop in % positive tests, then I'd take that as being a good thing. If both the number of new cases, and the % of positive tests were rising, then I'd be concerned.

True but we need to see the figures over a longer period to see a trend. We only seriously ramped up the test numbers over the last week or so. Before that we were mainly testing hospital patients and NHS front line staff so the percentage was going to be super high and not a reliable statistic as a starting point.

Notwithstanding the increased testing the new infections are still startlingly high given we've been in lockdown for 7 weeks.

 

[Tea_drinker]

If we're being honest, the best thing Johnson has done during this whole affair is get sick so we didn't have to hear from him.

That's just making excuses for his incompetence in a jokey sort of manner. He is solely responsible for the mess this country is in at the moment. He wanted the job but didn't want to do the job.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Cafes will be shut though .....main source of income ....

True. But those staff can still be furloughed. The important thing is not losing hundreds of millions in perishable stock. Plus it gives people stuck at home a purpose

 

[BrendanGOT]

this guy has had a stellar career and been the person that governments of all colours choose to listen to but apparently in the last couple of days the grade A hatchet job on him has painted him out to be a absolute balloon who should be ignored at all costs as it seems he’s an idiot .

now I’ve No real clue on his history but if he’s OTS I’m not sure if effects his ability to perform his job I mean he’s certainly a huge hypocrite but more importantly if he’s that incompetent and inaccurate then Surely the people in authority that choose to listen to him are Even worse ?

Of course. I'm highlighting that he should've been gone long ago. Shame it took a scandal for that to happen and not science.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

That's just making excuses for his incompetence in a jokey sort of manner. He is solely responsible for the mess this country is in at the moment. He wanted the job but didn't want to do the job.

I don't believe he's provided any leadership at all during this affair. I don't like the bloke, and certainly didn't vote for him, so not sure what you're looking for. Capital letters?

 

[Neiler]

You need to add in the suspected CV deaths from before we were testing in care homes. That would increase the percentage figures substantially. There are many thousands of these.

You have to remember the daily figures quoted are just those who have tested positive. I'm sure the ONS can come up with a fairly reliable figure for those with suspected CV on their death certs

I think its worth while acknowledging the process, i know over here if someone is suspected as Covid a test is done even after RIP and every case is sent to coroner for determination of cause. I'm not sure what the case is in the UK, i know most community testing is being done by post - i dont know do care homes have access to formal testing teams or mobile teams that would come and test.

The last time i checked i think the ONS figures were greater then those the government reported, i want to say 40k -50k but i would have to check again, that would ring true with the European average %.

 

[paultheblue]

If we're being honest, the best thing Johnson has done during this whole affair is get sick so we didn't have to hear from him.

He would probably agree with you

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

We cant do what they're doing because we have terrible leadership. I have no confidence whatsoever in what they tell us. I think that feeling is rife.

Absolutely nothing wrong in wanting better and holding stupidity accountable. However, as we fast approach post Brexit comparing ourselves to our nearest neighbours and former partners is not something that's going to be done with conviction or appetite as the misplaced patriotic populism still has 4.7 years. Just ride it out until enough voters get bitten the on ass by Johnson and they will.. That first virus update and 20,000 deaths was going to be a good result. That sums this Government up, it will haunt Johnsons legacy, just like Iraq has for Blair.

 

[Harryflashman]

If course. I'm highlighting that he should've been gone long ago. Shame it took a scandal for that to happen and not science.

or for whatever reason the media are maxing up his estimates or utilising worst case scenarios to make him look foolish .

Like if he’s said in 200 page report that over a 2 year period if we don’t act Or don’t do x , y or z we might see 500,000 fatalities. Then it’s not difficult for an unscrupulous media to turn that into “stupid scientist wrongly predicts 500,000 deaths “.

as I say I don’t know enough about it but this attacking of Ferguson has certainly seemed concerted and I do wonder if there is an agenda.

 

[BrendanGOT]

or for whatever reason the media are maxing up his estimates or utilising worst case scenarios to make him look foolish .

Like if he’s said in 200 page report that over a 2 year period if we don’t act Or don’t do x , y or z we might see 500,000 fatalities. Then it’s not difficult for an unscrupulous media to turn that into “stupid scientist wrongly predicts 500,000 deaths “.

as I say I don’t know enough about it but this attacking of Ferguson has certainly seemed concerted and I do wonder if there is an agenda.

None of what i posted in the original post is from the media mate. Its also from an article written before he was caught breaking the rules. Every model the man has done has been over inflated and severely wrong. It's all in the original post with links

 

[Bruce Wayne]

He would probably agree with you

Quite possibly. I'm not at all convinced his 'charismatic' leadership is all that, but he's not once shown he has any aptitude for details or unflashy graft, yet that's precisely what is called for during this process. His magniloquence is a complete waste of time when people are struggling.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

It probably hasn't helped that B&Q (etc.) and the supermarkets have continued to sell cuttings, so the balance in the industry has swung towards them.

I'm not saying that those above are wrong to sell horticultural stuff because they need to survive and prosper themselves, but it must be galling for the others.

however, I do know that a garden centre not too far from us (Aigburth Hall Nurseries) is actually open.

One by us opened last week, only a small independent nursery that deals in mainly bedding plants. They had no choice but to open because they weren't doing much online business and had loads of bedding plants just sitting there.

 

[paultheblue]

Quite possibly. I'm not at all convinced his 'charismatic' leadership is all that, but he's not once shown he has any aptitude for details or unflashy graft, yet that's precisely what is called for during this process. His magniloquence is a complete waste of time when people are struggling.

Wasn't it one of his teachers that said
"Boris was born to lead but it might be better if he doesn't "