What's happening in Ireland? I haven't read an awful lot about it - which suggests that Ireland are doing better than the UK?
We’re doing ok mate, worse then some better then most thankfully. We’re about a week or two ahead of the UK of when we put restrictions in.
We’re down to R0 .5 from 4.5-5 before lockdown. Which is positive as limited as the data might be - I personally think your R0 is only as good as your testing. Personally I think we have far more cases then our baseline figures or our R0 would suggest.
On the ground things have settled in the health service, we were being stretched two - three weeks ago and I was getting worried, PPE was stretched, beds were filling quickly and my team were gong down with the virus or had to self isolate. It has settled since, so I’m hoping work wise we are beyond our peak. We still have patients coming in, but it doesn’t look like we will be swamped.
We put in testing and contact testing in early and have teams out in the community, identifying cases, contacts and clusters, we could do more but it’s definitely crucial. I want to see the UK do this now. We just secured a deal to ramp up our testing to 100k a week for technology and necessary chemicals, not insignifcant for a county of under 5 mill that could be a game changer for us. Overall in a general sense the trend is New cases going up (more testing) and in general RIP numbers falling, but you’d be keeping a close eye on them.
The natives in my opinion have been getting bolder, nothing on the roads for weeks but last night driving home from work may as well not have been of lock down, but in general we’ve done good bar a few bulbs. If not starting to get a little over confident and cocky.
The horror over here has been the impact in nursing homes and health care staff well over 60% of our deaths have been in nursing homes and 200 of our 300 clusters ( over 3 confirmed linked cases ) in the community are there, horrible but we have acted fast at throwing resources at it in the last few weeks, weve been late though to our shame. Else wise over 40% of positive cases have been Heath care workers, very, very high and something we need to look at. A lot of that was not identifying nursing homes for PPE.
In the context of horror around the world we’ve done alright, I suspect we will start to open up incrementally after the May weekend, although I’ve be cautious. for that to work we need to do more on our infrastructure in testing and contact tracing for bigger numbers. The goal is to to keep our R0 under 1, anything over you should be locking down again really.
We’re in the same soup as everyone else, but overall we’re doing well compartively with everyone whose got through this well so far. End of the beginning mind,