Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Neiler said:
The data is unreliable though.

They dont include Care Home and Community RIPs. While the infection rate is only as good as the number of test you do. I'm sure they are doing their best and its good to see test numbers increase.

But i dont take the UK numbers to literally or believe their reliably to be honest. Im not calling a conspiracy theory on the government purposely fudging them, the government themselves have acknowledged they dont have the ability or infrastructure to report accurately anything in the UK bar hospital related numbers at the moment. Therefore its hard to draw any meaningful conclusion.
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The numbers may not be correct but they are consistent. Whatever or however the numbers are being collated, on the assumption that they are at least measuring the same things in the same way, they show a picture. The picture shows that there was an increase, then a potential plateau, and now a hint of decline. The absolute numbers are irrelevant as they may be out by a factor of x, it is the trend that counts. The Rnought factor being below 1, or remaining below 1 is key. The trend with all the numbers will inform......
 
OnlyBlueWillDo said:
The professor also said, "Bat coronaviruses are collected and studied by laboratories in multiple parts of China — including Wuhan Municipal CDC and Wuhan Institute of Virology,” and “the first human infection also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with a virus accidentally infecting a laboratory worker.”
Ebright further noted: “There also is clear precedent for this: The second, third, fourth, and fifth entries of the SARS virus into human populations occurred as a laboratory accident in Singapore in 2003, a laboratory accident in Taipei in 2003, and two separate laboratory accidents in Beijing in 2004.”
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zzr45 said:
Also from the one article that seems to constitute your research:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, also called for closing these wildlife markets down, saying, “What we are going through right now is a direct result of that.”

The Lancet, a medical journal, published a study from Chinese researchers concluding that most, but likely not all, early cases of the novel coronavirus could be tied to the Wuhan wet market.

Secondly, where did SARS v1, the one that was being studied in the labs that the bit you quoted, where did that come from?
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Are you both discussing whether this has come from a market or a lab?
 
BlueToff said:
They are starting to though Neiler. They made a point of that on the graph for cumulative cases and deaths etc. If you look at the graph there's two categories for UK (in hospital, and including everything else).

It's acting as a guideline, just like every country.

There definitely needs to be improvement and like you say they've acknowledged it, but they are now getting there with the accurate figures they do have.

I've said before but i know six people who have had the symptoms of this - all recovered, thankfully. Only one got tested (and tested positive). Multiply that 1/6 rate around the country and think how many people have got this without knowing for sure. And that means that the mortality rate is still a lot lower even if the actual number of deaths right now is higher than the official figures show.
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I notice that mate, but it was only yesterday the government said that it didn't have access to that information. Maybe im being dim, but how i read the graph is they have UK RIP's at the total hospital number figures and the including everything else figure at 5k. So that would have the actual RIP rate at 18k. I'm not quite sure what everything else is????, im assuming its community and care homes. That seems conservative to me, nursing homes alone are accounting for 50% of most countries totals. Certainly we have had an awful outcome over here and we closed all visiting in them before March.

Id be critical of the UK overall RIP figure on the care home aspect alone and how its reported, but like i say i hope they just arent organised enough. Because that is a critical number in protecting the most vulnerable and only appeared to be an issue of recognition this week. I dont trust any countries infection rate to be honest as its only as good as your testing. if you release lock down and arent doing significant testing a s country you are only fooling yourself.

Again though i acknowledge where you are voing from though, its a guide, peoples lives have been disrupted and threatened and as such this info is important for those that are effected. But id be very very much be treating as a guide and each country has a varying level of compantancey around it.
 
BlueToff said:
Know you aren't in the UK, Legs, but Witty - our CMO - has just said, and they're not sure why, males seem to be more susceptible to getting this seriously.
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Yes, been a consistent pattern across countries. Irrc Korea had more cases in women, due to the mega church outbreak that had a lot of young women attendees, but same sex difference in serious cases.

Was some speculation in China that it was down to smoking but haven’t seem anyone come up with a thorough data analysis on it yet. Hopefully though it means that older, overweight males are being monitored particularly carefully when they contract the virus as they seem particularly vulnerable.
 
peteblue said:
The numbers may not be correct but they are consistent. Whatever or however the numbers are being collated, on the assumption that they are at least measuring the same things in the same way, they show a picture. The picture shows that there was an increase, then a potential plateau, and now a hint of decline. The absolute numbers are irrelevant as they may be out by a factor of x, it is the trend that counts. The Rnought factor being below 1, or remaining below 1 is key. The trend with all the numbers will inform......
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But that depends on the data sample. The WHO said yesterday, that RIP's from care homes were on average coming in at around 50% of total RIP's in European countries. So if the UK doesn't have data to a potential of 50% you have to question the validity of graphs like that, i dont believe the UK exists in a vacuum to the rest of Europe (political ideology aside). A potential missing 50% of overall RIP missing, is quite significant and impact in terms of trend.
 
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