Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Bruce Wayne]

He has a clear bias for instance the “Aside: if this ends early, note the people who told you that it would long and big, and remove them as advisors” wouldn’t it also be the case if this doesn’t end early to note the people who said it be short and small and removed them as advisors?

But interesting analysis none the less.

One of the defining feature of the Good Judgment Project was that the best forecasters tended to suffer more from intellectual humility than hubris. This is a largely unknown situation, so I suspect our scientists, economists and policy makers would be better served by not attaching themselves to rigidly to particular strategies, and instead adapting as information becomes available. Part of the challenge with this is that our media love people to be absolutely super duper certain about how the future will play out, and then hammer them when it either doesn't or people change their mind. That's not healthy at all. We need to be okay with people, even if they're our ideological opposites, saying they're wrong and doing something differently.

 

[Toast]

My grandson who is at Liverpool Uni is at home in Nottingham. As far as I know the Uni is closed.

It's closed.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[AUXLEN]

My 2p

I work for a provider of PPE and the amount of manufacturer price rasing and "stock outs" (because someone is willing to pay more is disheartening and reprehensible). I will endeavor to swerve these blerts should we come through the other side of this. Anyone else heard of US buyers with cases of cash diverting masks to the US? I imagine this is rife worldwide...but you can't even wipe your backside with the new plastic money so...

staying indoors doesn't bother me as I am a hermit by nature and happy with a book and am lucky enough to have a small garden. when the warm weather comes and people in flats/apartments get stir crazy....bad times will ensue.

I'm 50, overweight with diabetes (i blame EFC scouse pies lol)...but people have already said I'll be fine but am worried and for my 70+ parents.
the office called me scouse doom and gloom because I predicted lockdown long before it was spoken freely and letters for movement. they still call me a bell now.
but they call me for TP and masks...

listen, I'm just a lad...but stay safe and wash yer hands.

 

[LinekersLegs]

One of the defining feature of the Good Judgment Project was that the best forecasters tended to be suffer more from intellectual humility than hubris. This is a largely unknown situation, so I suspect our scientists, economists and policy makers would be better served by not attaching themselves to rigidly to particular strategies, and instead adapting as information becomes available. Part of the challenge with this is that our media love people to be absolutely super duper certain about how the future will play out, and then hammer them when it either doesn't or people change their mind. That's not healthy at all. We need to be okay with people, even if they're our ideological opposites, saying they're wrong and doing something differently.

Big fan of Keynes’ quote “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"

 

[AUXLEN]

I feel for this guy...Trump will throw him 'under the bus' at the first opportunity.

 

[Armaghtoffee]

I’m with you on this because I think extended quarantine will eventually break so become worthless in itself so they’ll continue to use lockdown to gain time which ultimately is all that it is . We’ve done hardly any tests so it’s effectively worthless so all I can imagine is we’re buying team before relaxing it and then perhaps trying again .

I’ll probably be as wrong as I usually am but without mass testing this whole thing smacks of herd immunity via the back door with the pressure taken off the nhs .

This.

And now it has the political cover that the herd didn’t follow instructions and went about their lives.

 

[roydo]

This Professor JVT is sound as.

 

[Walken]

I feel for this guy...Trump will throw him 'under the bus' at the first opportunity.

the work load and responsibility this guy has took at the age of 79 is tremendous. Not just the job he is doing by being the only sane man in the house guiding trumps childish administration from further disaster, but the extra work he puts in from lots of content makers giving up his time to answer the simple questions that idiots like me need to hear. He doesn't sugar coat but gives you solid information in a straight manner, he is honestly the calming influence on the planet right now for me.

 

[peteblue]

Big fan of Keynes’ quote “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"

This is a key point. In any scientific or engineering development, things are learnt and things change. Anyone who thinks they know the answers definitively, is kidding themselves. Trials, testing of results and comparisons against alternative solutions provides a growing body of evidence, and it takes time. We still don’t have the answers but at least it now sounds as though the right steps are being taken.....we are in the hands and minds of our medics and scientists...

 

[peteblue]

the work load and responsibility this guy has took at the age of 79 is tremendous. Not just the job he is doing by being the only sane man in the house guiding trumps childish administration from further disaster, but the extra work he puts in from lots of content makers giving up his time to answer the simple questions that idiots like me need to hear. He doesn't sugar coat but gives you solid information in a straight manner, he is honestly the calming influence on the planet right now for me.

Oldies eh, where would we be without them.......

 

[roydo]

This is a key point. In any scientific or engineering development, things are learnt and things change. Anyone who thinks they know the answers definitively, is kidding themselves. Trials, testing of results and comparisons against alternative solutions provides a growing body of evidence, and it takes time. We still don’t have the answers but at least it now sounds as though the right steps are being taken.....we are in the hands and minds of our medics and scientists...

Its the classic, "NOW we know what we are dealing with".

Once they know, things fall into place way easier.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[summerisle]

lol

 

[Bruce Wayne]

This is a key point. In any scientific or engineering development, things are learnt and things change. Anyone who thinks they know the answers definitively, is kidding themselves. Trials, testing of results and comparisons against alternative solutions provides a growing body of evidence, and it takes time. We still don’t have the answers but at least it now sounds as though the right steps are being taken.....we are in the hands and minds of our medics and scientists...

Of course, it's equally important that the politicians don't shift all blame/responsibility onto the scientists so that any criticism for events is loaded onto their shoulders rather than their own. Johnson has an awful lot of form for this, so it's perhaps too much to expect him to front up this one. For people to own up to mistakes requires a degree of confidence that they aren't going to be thrown under the bus for making them. Hopefully the government won't do that with Witty and the other scientists informing affairs at the moment.