Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Joey66]

I hear he's repurposed it into a ventilator and is hawking it on eBay.

NAY Bruce 5 Dysons of all models and spare parts are like goldust mate.......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

He`s in negotiations with Trump at the mo, to supply the American health care system with spare parts.

Even Trump is finding it hard to get him to lower his demands.

I was trying to think for a minute what part of Joe could possibly be spare. I'm not sure he could isolate the part of the brain used for spelling, and to be honest, I'm not sure Trump would be a willing buyer if he could.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Loads of people about in Richmond today, people playing sport on the green, streets quite crowded etc

Seems all it takes is a bit of sun for people to abandon the lockdown.

Sunday will be interesting as it's supposed to get up to 19 Celsius in most parts of the country..

 

[Bruce Wayne]

NAY Bruce 5 Dysons of all models and spare parts are like goldust mate.......

And those fools thought Andrex double quilted would be the currency of the future.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

A lot of people seem to be just going about their business during the day though.
Its not being enforced in my opinion.

I been stopped once by police and challenged by far too many people recently on my many daily outings reckon some people have been waiting for this moment rather to eagerly.

 

[peteblue]

Loads of people about in Richmond today, people playing sport on the green, streets quite crowded etc

Seems all it takes is a bit of sun for people to abandon the lockdown.

Meanwhile in Sweden, where they are all trying to catch it, their death rate is about 1/11th that of the U.K. with 1/6th of the population. Could just be where they are on the cycle though...

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I been stopped once by police and challenged by far too many people recently on my many daily outings reckon some people have been waiting for this moment rather to eagerly.

With comrade Corbyn tending to his vegetables, you may as well walk around with a target on your head.

 

[Joey66]

Other than South Korea, I don't think many if any countries are testing asymptomatic cases routinely.

That said, every year a lot of flu cases will never be reported either as people don't go to get tested.

TBH if you look at the high rate case eg the UK all the high death rates are by major airports, and the channel tunnel @Bruce Wayne posed a question was this virus pandemic in the air = yes it was 8 weeks ago when flights to major Airports should have been cut back to how it is now ...... closing the stable door after the horse has bolted springs to mind.... Money came first and for what as the financial crisis has happened any way......

 

[peteblue]

I been stopped once by police and challenged by far too many people recently on my many daily outings reckon some people have been waiting for this moment rather to eagerly.

It’s the striped jersey and the bag with SWAG written on it that does it.....

 

[LinekersLegs]

So those are death rates involving confirmed cases? Does anyone have a handle on how many asymptomatic cases there have been? That would surely lessen the death rate -- not that it would be any less frightening.

They tried to adjust for that but will still be an estimate. In particular they factored in that although mostly older patients will have shown up, it is likely the virus infected a similar % of younger people but they just didn’t show as severe symptoms to get tested/hospitalization.

They will probably be able refine those estimates as more data from countries like SKorea, Iceland, Norway and Germany who are doing wide scale testing including of asymptotic people becomes available,

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined.9 Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.7 In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher.

Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province)2,17. Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases.

Here we attempt to adjust for these biases in data sources to obtain estimates of the case fatality ratio (proportion of all cases that will eventually lead to death) and infection fatality ratio (the proportion of all infections that will eventually lead to death) using both individual- level case report data and aggregate case and death counts from mainland China, from Hong Kong and Macau, and international case reports. By adjusting for both underlying demography and potential under- ascertainment at different levels of the severity pyramid (figure 1), these estimates should be broadly applicable across a range of settings to inform health planning while more detailed case data accrues

 

[Joey66]

And those fools thought Andrex double quilted would be the currency of the future.

Toilet rolls are easy to get now Bruce - tinned food, lentils, rice, pasta, etc is hard to get now .......

 

[evilwebby]

I'm really hoping this guy's modeling turns out to be a closer to reality than many others out there:

An Optimistic Assessment of COVID-19 – The Aleph Blog

alephblog.com

Here's his update:

Continuing An Optimistic Assessment of COVID-19 – The Aleph Blog

alephblog.com

By his reckoning Italy should be 90% done by now, Spain 75%. UK 50%ish

Personally those numbers still look too optimistic to me, largely because this will not fit a perfect S-curve. The flattening off phase will be slower and more jagged than the growth phase, not a perfect mirror.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

With comrade Corbyn tending to his vegetables, you may as well walk around with a target on your head.

Being public sector and in particular social services, always had a target. So just a normal week. The best is rucking up as two's at supermarkets, melt down...

 

[canuckblue]

They tried to adjust for that but will still be an estimate. In particular they factored in that although mostly older patients will have shown up, it is likely the virus infected a similar % of younger people but they just didn’t show as severe symptoms to get tested/hospitalization.

They will probably be able refine those estimates as more data from countries like SKorea, Iceland, Norway and Germany who are doing wide scale testing including of asymptotic people becomes available,

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined.9 Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.7 In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher. Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province)2,17. Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases.
Here we attempt to adjust for these biases in data sources to obtain estimates of the case fatality ratio (proportion of all cases that will eventually lead to death) and infection fatality ratio (the proportion of all infections that will eventually lead to death) using both individual- level case report data and aggregate case and death counts from mainland China, from Hong Kong and Macau, and international case reports. By adjusting for both underlying demography and potential under- ascertainment at different levels of the severity pyramid (figure 1), these estimates should be broadly applicable across a range of settings to inform health planning while more detailed case data ac

Thanks.

 

[Toast]

Depends what you mean though.

Are people still out and about during the day - yes.

Are people keeping their distance, walking in ones and twos / family groups / walking their dog / jogging / riding their bikes - yes.

So it is being observed, as per the government instructions by and large ( where I live )

Past 6 pm it`s dead where I live, to the point where the local general store has started closing at 8pm, rather than 10.

The test will come this weekend, as it`s predicted to start warming up again.

The social distance is being observed here I think.
But no way all these people are shopping for bare essentials.
Fella out the back of ours came home with a load of sand a paving slabs earlier.
Probs sorting garden out for a BBQ on Sunday as it's going to be over 20 degrees.
Accountant firm at top of my road is also open with all staff stood outside smoking together, but keeping apart.