Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Being public sector and in particular social services, always had a target. So just a normal week. The best is rucking up as two's at supermarkets, melt down...

For your next trip to Tesco

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Here's his update:

By his reckoning Italy should be 90% done by now, Spain 75%. UK 50%ish

Personally those numbers still look too optimistic to me, largely because this will not fit a perfect S-curve. The flattening off phase will be slower and more jagged than the growth phase, not a perfect mirror.

Yep, its not simply going to go up and then down, its going to go up and up and up, then flat, then probably up again once measures are lifted.
 
Here's his update:

By his reckoning Italy should be 90% done by now, Spain 75%. UK 50%ish

Personally those numbers still look too optimistic to me, largely because this will not fit a perfect S-curve. The flattening off phase will be slower and more jagged than the growth phase, not a perfect mirror.
He has a clear bias for instance the “Aside: if this ends early, note the people who told you that it would long and big, and remove them as advisors” wouldn’t it also be the case if this doesn’t end early to note the people who said it be short and small and removed them as advisors?

But interesting analysis none the less.
 
Difficult to tell what real levels of activity are. You have stuff like the CityMapper app which shows that activity was about 8% of normal in London. I would say that people seem to be taking the lockdown seriously..

Same in Liverpool city center, people go for a jog or the shops or work and that's it with everyone behaving at the supermarket, very quiet, though maybe the students have gone home
 
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