Current Affairs Ukraine

[Noisy noise annoys]

China don’t want the sanctions the west has put on Russia put on them. That’s what will happen if they invade.

I imagine they were very surpised by the reaction from the West to Putins move.

 

[efcfanwirral]

Gives China an "easy" run at Taiwan?

I agree. I honestly thought they would have a "go" once Russia invaded, but it seems prudent for China to just sit back and watch, let everyone exhaust themselves andtheir resources and then stroll over.

China don’t want the sanctions the west has put on Russia put on them. That’s what will happen if they invade.

I don't think the Western general public want those sanctions either. If we think the upcoming cost of living crisis is bad (its barely started as it is), we'd destroy ourselves with those sanctions, but we'll do it anyway. As they don't care about their citizens and can bring an iron fist of control down on them, maybe its in their interests to invite the sanctions because we'd come out just as badly

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I don't think the Western general public want those sanctions either. If we think the upcoming cost of living crisis is bad (its barely started as it is), we'd destroy ourselves with those sanctions, but we'll do it anyway. As they don't care about their citizens and can bring an iron fist of control down on them, maybe its in their interests to invite the sanctions because we'd come out just as badly

Yeh, it almost feels like a who blinks first moment. Something has to give at some point, the worlds major powers all heading in very different directons

 

[PhilM]

I agree. I honestly thought they would have a "go" once Russia invaded, but it seems prudent for China to just sit back and watch, let everyone exhaust themselves andtheir resources and then stroll over.

For all their investment and posturing, the Chinese armed forces are still relatively green, and more so their blue water navy which needs to grow.

Attacking across the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea isn’t something they can guarantee on yet, so it’ll be a few years before they do.

 

[Mrk]

For all their investment and posturing, the Chinese armed forces are still relatively green, and more so their blue water navy which needs to grow.

Attacking across the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea isn’t something they can guarantee on yet, so it’ll be a few years before they do.

Yep, and it would also be literally impossible to organise a capable invasion force without Taiwan and western intelligence agencies watching their every move - giving Taiwan time to prepare and the US time to move more naval units into the area, making invasion hugely risky.

 

[devogue]

For all their investment and posturing, the Chinese armed forces are still relatively green, and more so their blue water navy which needs to grow.

Attacking across the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea isn’t something they can guarantee on yet, so it’ll be a few years before they do.

Tbh I can't see China invading Taiwan ever. The resources it would require just to attempt it is mind blowing and thats before you factor in the US Navy. China is more likely to try and infiltrate Taiwan's political system which I think they are already doing.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

For all their investment and posturing, the Chinese armed forces are still relatively green, and more so their blue water navy which needs to grow.

Attacking across the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea isn’t something they can guarantee on yet, so it’ll be a few years before they do.

Ok. I was thinking the sheer weight of numbers manoeuvre, but we’ve seen how the Russians thought that!

 

[PhilM]

Tbh I can't see China invading Taiwan ever. The resources it would require just to attempt it is mind blowing and thats before you factor in the US Navy. China is more likely to try and infiltrate Taiwan's political system which I think they are already doing.

Indeed. It would need the US to be effectively relinquish itself of Taiwan’s defence and keeping the 7th fleet back, which I do not see likely any time soon.

Is China willing to risk toe-to-toe conflict with the US? Like fluff they are. Subterfuge and manipulation would be cheaper and more effective, albeit a longer game.

 

[devogue]

Indeed. It would need the US to be effectively relinquish itself of Taiwan’s defence and keeping the 7th fleet back, which I do not see likely any time soon.

Is China willing to risk toe-to-toe conflict with the US? Like fluff they are. Subterfuge and manipulation would be cheaper and more effective, albeit a longer game.

Ye until the US has the same chip making capabilities as Taiwan they have to defend it.

 

[devogue]

 

[PhilM]

Apart from saying nasty things and starting to implement sneaky beaky stuff, I’m not sure what Russia can actually do.

The sanctions, isolation, the cost of the war financially and in terms of their military is hurting them a lot - much more than it is us.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Seems a strange hill to die on

 

[tsubaki]

A really interesting article this:

What a Russia war win would look like

War plunges its participants into a welter of death and destruction, hardship and cruelty, tragedy and irony. The Ukraine war’s agonies have been widely documented but its overlooked ironies are pa…

asiatimes.com

 

[Taifi gorm]

If it's trump and the Chinese offer a discounted soak and hand shandy, Taiwan may forget about any help.

 

[wm02]

Ye until the US has the same chip making capabilities as Taiwan they have to defend it.

It has been increasing recently and is definitely a priority. Check out the first strategy in the DOC’s newly released Strategic Plan