Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

Sources?

Otherwise just more propaganda bollocks

Putin Places Spies Under House Arrest

After two weeks of halting war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin just suddenly launched an attack in a surprising direction — his beloved agency, the FSB.

cepa.org

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2022

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in...

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin

Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin

The origins of the war in Ukraine lie in Russian economic stagnation, corruption and the president’s dwindling popularity

www.ft.com

Edit: link is not paywalled

 

[efcfanwirral]

Sassy there is no justification for what Putin is doing. It is Hitler's Lebensraum in reverse. He doesn't care a damn for civilians but just wants to restore the old Soviet/Russian empire - and I fear he won't stop at that. This is the most frightening time in which I have lived. Anyone trying to justify massacre of innocents is satanic.

Is there any evidence whatsoever that this is something Russia has the ability to do? Fair enough if they'd swooped in and taken Ukraine in a couple of days, but the idea of them pushing all the way through a load of other countries then continuing and, presumably from what you've said ending up on our doorstep, just doesn't sound realistic. The media did push that narrative at the start but I'm wondering if that was to ensure support considering the effects of sanctions on us. Even they have stopped that now considering how much they're struggling to take half of Ukraine never mind the full country

 

[Glasshalffull]

Is there any evidence whatsoever that this is something Russia has the ability to do? Fair enough if they'd swooped in and taken Ukraine in a couple of days, but the idea of them pushing all the way through a load of other countries then continuing and, presumably from what you've said ending up on our doorstep, just doesn't sound realistic. The media did push that narrative at the start but I'm wondering if that was to ensure support considering the effects of sanctions on us. Even they have stopped that now considering how much they're struggling to take half of Ukraine never mind the full country

I believe that Putin would like to restore the Russian empire, and if his army had just been able to stroll into Ukraine and take over, he'd have been emboldened in that ambition. He seems to believe that most of what we'd call eastern Europe is just a series of regions of a Greater Russia, and any of their citizens who don't agree are wilfully stupid or nazis.

As things stand, Putin would be unlikely to mess with a NATO country as long as NATO remains a strong and viable organisation. If Russia could get a Trump-like president in the US, believing that anything happening outside the borders of the USA is irrelevant to them, and then create division between EU and NATO member nations, then despite his chastening experience in Ukraine, he might well try to pick off former 'iron curtain' countries, or regions of them, one by one. If that happened, then even the states of western Europe could be heavily leaned upon by the new Soviet Union.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

 

[Yarrgh]

All it needs is a cut shot to a blown up apartment building with dead people after they showed the missile launching.

Because that's what they do. It's not some clean cut heroic affair.

 

[spectateur]

Is there any evidence whatsoever that this is something Russia has the ability to do? Fair enough if they'd swooped in and taken Ukraine in a couple of days, but the idea of them pushing all the way through a load of other countries then continuing and, presumably from what you've said ending up on our doorstep, just doesn't sound realistic. The media did push that narrative at the start but I'm wondering if that was to ensure support considering the effects of sanctions on us. Even they have stopped that now considering how much they're struggling to take half of Ukraine never mind the full country

It is on record that in 1945 after beating the nazi Germany, many soviet generals wanted to continue the push westwards towards the North Sea. Pushing back the Anglo American forces.
Stalin disagreed because he had already done a deal with Roosevelt on the carving up of Europe.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20April%2018.pdf

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces likely began large-scale offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts focused on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka.

• Russian forces may be able to gain ground through the heavy concentration of artillery and numbers. However, Russian operations are unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous major offensives around Kyiv. The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes—poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale—that impeded prior offensives.

• Successful Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv will likely force Russian forces to divert some units intended for the Izyum offensive, but Ukrainian forces are unlikely to completely sever Russian lines of communication north of Izyum in the coming days.

• Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol continued to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and air bombardment.


----

Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces likely commenced large-scale offensive operations in Donbas but are unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough.

• Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv may divert some Russian units but are unlikely to sever Russian lines of communication in the coming days.

• Russian forces concentrating around Izyum will continue small-scale offensive operations to the southeast and southwest and may begin larger-scale offensives.

• Russia and its proxies may declare victory in the Battle of Mariupol.

• Russian forces could launch a new offensive operation from Donetsk City to the north through Avdiivka toward Kramatorsk.

 

[stipe]

It is on record that in 1945 after beating the nazi Germany, many soviet generals wanted to continue the push westwards towards the North Sea. Pushing back the Anglo American forces.
Stalin disagreed because he had already done a deal with Roosevelt on the carving up of Europe.

Some Western generals has similar ideas, just read what General Patton was saying about Russians being "Asiatic hordes" and his famous quote "we defeated wrong enemy (Germany)".

He was biggest supporter of idea of going to war immediately against Soviets, even had plans about arming defeated Wehrmacht, but then he got killed in car accident. Also US had nukes, i read nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki was intended to serve as warning to Stalin.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces likely began large-scale offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts focused on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka.

• Russian forces may be able to gain ground through the heavy concentration of artillery and numbers. However, Russian operations are unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous major offensives around Kyiv. The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes—poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale—that impeded prior offensives.

• Successful Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv will likely force Russian forces to divert some units intended for the Izyum offensive, but Ukrainian forces are unlikely to completely sever Russian lines of communication north of Izyum in the coming days.

• Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol continued to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and air bombardment.


----

Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces likely commenced large-scale offensive operations in Donbas but are unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough.

• Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv may divert some Russian units but are unlikely to sever Russian lines of communication in the coming days.

• Russian forces concentrating around Izyum will continue small-scale offensive operations to the southeast and southwest and may begin larger-scale offensives.

• Russia and its proxies may declare victory in the Battle of Mariupol.

• Russian forces could launch a new offensive operation from Donetsk City to the north through Avdiivka toward Kramatorsk.

So the big question here is whether or not opening up another front will overwhelm the Ukrainians or not. A good way to think about what's happening here is through a chess analogy - the Russians have a material advantage and their kingside attack (Kyiv) has stalled, so they're pushing queenside. The Russians may be playing like amateurs, but a GM will still lose to an amateur if they have to spot them enough material.

Some Western generals has similar ideas, just read what General Patton was saying about Russians being "Asiatic hordes" and his famous quote "we defeated wrong enemy (Germany)".

He was biggest supporter of idea of going to war immediately against Soviets, even had plans about arming defeated Wehrmacht, but then he got killed in car accident. Also US had nukes, i read nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki was intended to serve as warning to Stalin.

Rather convenient accident for a political/military leadership that didn't want another war, if you ask me. Hardly conclusive evidence, but one wonders.

 

[peteblue]

I don't believe anything Zelensky says anymore.

Do you believe what the Russians say ?….

 

[Neiler]

A few weeks back i described what Russia would do would be like a Python - they've done it everywhere else. They will probe and try and find a weak spot and when they do they will capitalise and patiently squeeze, i think that is their focus now in the east and south.

At this point, they've realised that sieging the likes of of Kyiv is to labour intensive and it suits the Ukrainian military. So the next phase of the war will be securing the land border between Ukraine and Russia and creating the land border all the way from Russia to Crimea through the offensive in Donbass and along the sea of Azov and the Black Sea - which will be a huge strategic objective for them in this campaign given the influence of the black sea in the region . This will allow Russia to better supply their army, refresh troops by having a staging post in the country along their own border. It also brings into play their air force - something we haven't strategically seen significantly yet, but i think we will in the east - its why Ukraine have been crying out for anti aircraft weapons and systems. I think we will see a different war now, it will be different from besieging cities. Russia look to be picking battles in regions that will contest areas through open field warfare, this will suit Russia far more then Ukraine, its why people are describing it like WW2 as such open battles probably haven't been seen since then - tanks will come more into play.

If Donbas and the southern coast falls, i think we are at a tipping point then, Putin might decide to continue. he might decide that the mission was successful and be happy with the Donbas and Sothern Ukraine and like Crimea - i think the west would concede that - maybe not Ukraine. It may stay like that for years like Crimea until he picks a time to attack again. Or he may sit in Crimea, Donbass and Southern Ukraine for months, regroup and go again. No end in sight to this unfortunately and things took a turn yesterday i think for the worst over the next few weeks/months, Putin needs to show progress before the 9th of May. Russia are in absolutely no hurry to my mind and will play the long game willingly if things haven't gone their expected way so far. All eyes now turn to the east and south.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin

Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin

The origins of the war in Ukraine lie in Russian economic stagnation, corruption and the president’s dwindling popularity

www.ft.com

Edit: link is not paywalled

It always was. It was just subtext. You could ask Kasparov, the Skripals, Navalny, or a certain band whose name would get language filtered. There are many other examples.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin

Putin’s dictatorship is now based on fear rather than spin

The origins of the war in Ukraine lie in Russian economic stagnation, corruption and the president’s dwindling popularity

www.ft.com

Edit: link is not paywalled

It it paywalled for me, can't read

 

[PhilM]

So the big question here is whether or not opening up another front will overwhelm the Ukrainians or not. A good way to think about what's happening here is through a chess analogy - the Russians have a material advantage and their kingside attack (Kyiv) has stalled, so they're pushing queenside. The Russians may be playing like amateurs, but a GM will still lose to an amateur if they have to spot them enough material.

To add context to this, the general consensus coming out of the defence departments (MoD, inside NATO etc.) is that the moved units still face many problems.

The matter of a fortnight or so will not be enough to replenish supplies and the loss of men and materials, nor will it offer time to train and change tactics.

They now have the opportunity to attack on a broader line rather than focusing on narrows axis of attack, but they're still logistically in the mire.

The Ukrainians in front of them know their territory, are entrenched in deep, well-built defence lines and with their own troop deployments coming to support.

I'm far from an expert, however I think we'll see advances in the first few days and it'll then slow and perhaps stall again when the UKA engage them.

The flip side of that will be that the Russians will be reverting to tactics more akin to their doctrine: mass artillery; broader sweeps and try to encircle.