Current Affairs Ukraine

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Sadly, I'm not sure if it is that easy. As the weather likely improves come the end of April, the ground will be much easier for armour to move over.

Part of me feels that the Russians have now chose to sit still to wait for this, which means armour will be more flexible e.g. keeping off the roads.

That doesn't mean that's the only reason they're held up - they've been heavily bruised and logistically shown to be inept - but it may change later on.
 
I'm kind of hoping they're conservative estimates
Those figures are for KIA. They don't cover wounded or deserters. Factor in these numbers and you're looking at a reduction in combat force effectiveness of around 27%.

That is incredible and totally unsustainable for RuAF. They simply cannot continue for much longer at this rate of attrition.
 
Those figures are for KIA. They don't cover wounded or deserters. Factor in these numbers and you're looking at a reduction in combat force effectiveness of around 27%.

That is incredible and totally unsustainable for RuAF. They simply cannot continue for much longer at this rate of attrition.
And their logistical support appears to be nothing short of calamitous.
I spoke to someone who told me the Ukrainians are playing the Russians like sheep in a sheepdog trial - splitting them up into smaller units, surrounding them and them they don't need to attack them, without provisions, fuel, ammo supplies, they're completely isolated and it's probably only a matter of time before they either surrender to the UAF or simply desert.
 
Sadly, I'm not sure if it is that easy. As the weather likely improves come the end of April, the ground will be much easier for armour to move over.

Part of me feels that the Russians have now chose to sit still to wait for this, which means armour will be more flexible e.g. keeping off the roads.

That doesn't mean that's the only reason they're held up - they've been heavily bruised and logistically shown to be inept - but it may change later on.
It’s going to be a miserable April for them though, the spring rains are just starting now, a lot of the Russian troops are sleeping outside as it’s too risky to sleep in their vehicles, frostbite issues then become trench foot issues. With the current rate of losses what kind of effective force will be left come May?
The Ukrainian attack on the Russian ship is likely the start of an up scaled attempt to disrupt the Russian supply lines in the south, NATO today were discussing supplying ship busting missiles to Ukraine to allow them to clear out their southern ports of Russian ships.
 
It’s going to be a miserable April for them though, the spring rains are just starting now, a lot of the Russian troops are sleeping outside as it’s too risky to sleep in their vehicles, frostbite issues then become trench foot issues. With the current rate of losses what kind of effective force will be left come May?
The Ukrainian attack on the Russian ship is likely the start of an up scaled attempt to disrupt the Russian supply lines in the south, NATO today were discussing supplying ship busting missiles to Ukraine to allow them to clear out their southern ports of Russian ships.
Aye you're right, it'll be a point of them surviving the rains and the health and moral issues they will bring, like the cold has. Combat losses will add up too!

But if there is a Russian fighting force left after that, there may still be a concern regarding how the battlefield may open up with increased flexibility.

It's like how we sat with the Qattara Depression to protect our left flank during the Second Battle of El Alemein and the Mediterranean on our right.

It limited the Afrika Korps to frontal assaults and negated their previous tactical advantage. After the battle, the Panzerarmee had more flexibility and used it.

Like you mention, the Ukrainians will have to use this time wisely to keep reducing front line units, damaged moral and continue to smash their supply lines.
 
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