Current Affairs Ukraine

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maccavennie said:
How much longer are the people of Mariupol going to be able to survive if there is no route to escape?

Does anyone know why Russia seem to have targeted that one in particular with most force compared to other cities?
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I believe it has just been the path of least resistance, rather than targeting it specifically.

Without ending up sounding too much like Kev the Rat here, the Russian forces were able to advance on Mauripol from both sides by armies from the west in Crimea and the East, which have now encircled the city.

Also, Southern Ukraine generally has a higher pro Russian sentiment compared to northern and western Ukraine. Their supply lines will have had less interference in that region, compared to the logistical clusterfcuk in the north.

Without doubt, Kiev is the prize trophy for Putin, but they are some way off yet.
 
I really cannot see the logic of invading a country like Ukraine, even if they manage to take control of it or large parts of it they will need to station half their armed forces here to remain in control. It will be a source of conflict for years to come with young Russian soldiers being in the firing line and many of them dying. This doesn't look like a good way to keep Russia safe.
 
Caolam said:
I really cannot see the logic of invading a country like Ukraine, even if they manage to take control of it or large parts of it they will need to station half their armed forces here to remain in control. It will be a source of conflict for years to come with young Russian soldiers being in the firing line and many of them dying. This doesn't look like a good way to keep Russia safe.
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I think they are doing it because they can; that sort of regime needs victories and they’ve shown in this (and historically) that dead soldiers is not something that by itself causes political problems. Come to think of it none of our recent governments paid a price for dead servicemen or ongoing wars either, to be honest. There is also the effect (which them and the PRC have repeatedly pointed to) that what they’ve done highlights the uselessness of the current global order (which is rules based only when it’s not the US or it’s closest allies who’ve broken the rules).

A lot of countries (and certainly a lot of social media populations in those countries) agree with that assessment already, and perceived bullying from the West isn’t going to change that.

Whether they take the whole of Ukraine or just the bits they’ve said (and then wait for us to remove sanctions) is another matter of course.

I do hope that more effort is made for peace talks though on a global scale, in terms of building a consensus against this invasion I think we stand a far better chance of doing that via the food security route (and the danger that Russia poses to more than half the world in that respect) than going down the “anyone who isn’t with us gets sanctioned” lane. I also hope we make it clear sanctions continue only for as long as the war does.
 
slipstream86 said:
I believe it has just been the path of least resistance, rather than targeting it specifically.

Without ending up sounding too much like Kev the Rat here, the Russian forces were able to advance on Mauripol from both sides by armies from the west in Crimea and the East, which have now encircled the city.

Also, Southern Ukraine generally has a higher pro Russian sentiment compared to northern and western Ukraine. Their supply lines will have had less interference in that region, compared to the logistical clusterfcuk in the north.

Without doubt, Kiev is the prize trophy for Putin, but they are some way off yet.
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I'm not sure that Kiev is the goal. I think it's just a cruel way to batter the Ukrainian will into submission.

Mauripol would be a "barrier/ asset" in the land corridor to Crimea and possibly key in controlling the shale deposits in the region.

If the war is going as badly as reported for Russia then I think we'll see the Russian endgame pop up in the ongoing "peace talks" as soon as they have what is an acceptable exit position. Lughansk and Donetsk independent with Crimea officially Russian and Ukraine demilitarised could happen now. Does Russia push for the land corridor and puppet regime in place in Ukraine versus its potential humiliation is the gamble.

The west and Russia will be quite cynical (or pragmatic) in letting Ukraine take the brunt of things returning back to the status quo with Russian international relations.
 
Yarrgh said:
I'm not sure that Kiev is the goal. I think it's just a cruel way to batter the Ukrainian will into submission.

Mauripol would be a "barrier/ asset" in the land corridor to Crimea and possibly key in controlling the shale deposits in the region.

If the war is going as badly as reported for Russia then I think we'll see the Russian endgame pop up in the ongoing "peace talks" as soon as they have what is an acceptable exit position. Lughansk and Donetsk independent with Crimea officially Russian and Ukraine demilitarised could happen now. Does Russia push for the land corridor and puppet regime in place in Ukraine versus its potential humiliation is the gamble.

The west and Russia will be quite cynical (or pragmatic) in letting Ukraine take the brunt of things returning back to the status quo with Russian international relations.
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Yes you're right, I did think after I wrote that, that the costal position of Mauripol would be strategically important for Russia.

But It's hard to see how Ukraine could be "demilitarized" whatever that means without a regime change. Zelensky has been more accepting in the last week that NATO membership is unrealistic, but there's no rhetoric from him regarding standing down forces, or conceding territory.
 
maccavennie said:
How much longer are the people of Mariupol going to be able to survive if there is no route to escape?

Does anyone know why Russia seem to have targeted that one in particular with most force compared to other cities?
Click to expand...
I keep thinking the same. How much of this brutal war are the people of Mariupol and Ukraine to endure before something is done to stop Putin. I’m so afraid that as this war continues and as we continue witnessing these atrocities on our screens that out governments are going to become desensitized and Putin is going to get away with it and make of Ukraine another Syria :(
 
Diogenes the Cynic said:
How on earth could Ukraine demilitarising be even considered as an option?

Agree to demilitiarise, Russia withdraw.

Demilitiarise, Russia reinvade.

Absolutely bonkers stuff.
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It all depends what demilitarise means - there’s been some mention of no foreign bases / no hostile pacts rather than reducing the size of the army, which would be a lot less painful than reducing the size of the army itself.

I also think expanding the civilian ownership of firearms (along the Swiss model rather than the US one) is something they should definitely look to explore, especially after this.

So far to me this really does sound like Finland 1940, and I think as painful as it would be to do it isn’t as bad as some of the alternatives.
 
tsubaki said:
It all depends what demilitarise means - there’s been some mention of no foreign bases / no hostile pacts rather than reducing the size of the army, which would be a lot less painful than reducing the size of the army itself.

I also think expanding the civilian ownership of firearms (along the Swiss model rather than the US one) is something they should definitely look to explore, especially after this.

So far to me this really does sound like Finland 1940, and I think as painful as it would be to do it isn’t as bad as some of the alternatives.
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The Soviet invasion of Finland led to them being expelled from the League of Nations which is something that should be considered for modern day organisations.

The civilian ownership of firearms is interesting but wouldn't provide significant national security in my opinion unless this is going to be extended to actual ownership of military grade weaponry which is impractical and unworkable.

Putin has also previously made mention of the justification of the Soviet invasion of Finland to reclaim territory so this should be warning to all previous Soviet states.
 
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