Current Affairs Ukraine

[Kev The Rat]

There is no chance in hell that NATO will help Ukraine.

and yet some are convinced they will help Estonia lol

 

[Tony101]

and yet some are convinced they will help Estonia lol

One is in NATO one isn’t. If Russia invades a country in NATO. There would have to be some response that’s more than sanctions.

 

[polish]

and yet some are convinced they will help Estonia lol

Estonia is a NATO member, so in case of any military intervention, they simply have to.

 

[orchard]

every world leader who wants their name to ring out through history should remember the story of Croesus and the oracle (or for the less educated, the story Roz tells in Frasier about Lupe Velez)

Who's Roz ffs

 

[Walken]

every world leader who wants their name to ring out through history should remember the story of Croesus and the oracle (or for the less educated, the story Roz tells in Frasier about Lupe Velez)

Can you go further less educated than Fraiser for my benefit please?

 

[orchard]

Can you go further less educated than Fraiser for my benefit please?

Read Herodotus FFS x

 

[Walken]

Read Herodotus FFS x

They serve gyros?

 

[Kev The Rat]

Estonia is a NATO member, so in case of any military intervention, they simply have to.

very limited appetite in the US to involve themselves in foreign adventures, the idea they will prop up Estonia is for the birds I'm afraid

But yes, you carry waving your piece of paper around that 'guarantees' otherwise.

 

[coollino]

Is there any kind of round up I can read or watch so I can understand a bit more about this?

For the first time in ages I feel lost, I think I only understand about 10% of it lol

 

[Walken]

Is there any kind of round up I can read or watch so I can understand a bit more about this?

For the first time in ages I feel lost, I think I only understand about 10% of it lol

Read Kevs stuff to further increase your ignorance, then sleep well in that bliss

 

[Kev The Rat]

Read Kevs stuff to further increase your ignorance, then sleep well in that bliss

I've not been proved wrong yet. My prediction was that the whole of Ukraine will fall - possibly within a few months and I'm sticking by it.

@tsubaki believed that the EU/USA would partition Ukraine in 2 as part of a deal!

This is beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime - we are at DEFCON 3.

 

[polish]

very limited appetite in the US to involve themselves in foreign adventures, the idea they will prop up Estonia is for the birds I'm afraid

But yes, you carry waving your piece of paper around that 'guarantees' otherwise.

The whole NATO stand around article 5 which says if one member is attacked, it means all of them are under attack.

There are only two scenarios in that case - fight back or the whole alliance would be dissolved.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The whole NATO stand around article 5 which says if one member is attacked, it means all of them are under attack.

There are only two scenarios in that case - fight back or the whole alliance would be dissolved.

they will fight back with sanctions lol lol

they may even arrest a few oligarchs next time.

 

[tsubaki]

I've not been proved wrong yet. My prediction was that the whole of Ukraine will fall - possibly within a few months and I'm sticking by it.

@tsubaki believed that the EU/USA would partition Ukraine in 2 as part of a deal!

This is beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime - we are at DEFCON 3.

No I didn't. What I said was:

TBF that is potentially a huge trap for him, he’s assuming the Ukrainians will kick off at that.

If instead they say “well, alright then, off you trot”, accept it and renounce claims then not only isn’t there a war but it also removes the biggest problem for them being in NATO (ie the ongoing border dispute). He could find himself looking very stupid quite quickly.

and

I disagree - there are a few reasons why some form of deal might happen.

The first and most obvious is the frankly crazy way that the Crimea became Ukrainian (basically Khrushchev signed it over in the 50s, probably to try and distance himself from what he'd done during the late 30s whilst Ukrainian boss and allow him to blame Stalin for it). In terms of giving something up, that is probably the easiest and the one that could be done with the least pain - I mean, Ukraine is never going to get it back unless things change radically and had it (as an independent state) for a shade over 20 years; its not like giving up Kiev.


The second is what removing some of these areas (Crimea, Donbass) does to Ukraine politically - it makes the remainder much more anti-Russian, simply by removing so many pro-Russian Ukrainian citizens. As with the Tories and the Scottish independence, removing a chunk of the electorate that will at best never vote for you and at worst block you coming to power does have a certain appeal to it.


Combining both of those is the likely main requirement for Ukraine to join NATO (and the EU for what its worth) - ie: that there are no outstanding territorial or internal complications that could enmesh the alliance in a conflict it didn't want. If Ukraine signed away Crimea and the Donbass and that was recognized internationally (as part of an agreement settling this dispute) then that problem would largely disappear.

 

[Kev The Rat]

No I didn't. What I said was:



and

actually its even more nutty than I remembered as you think after that split, the west part will join NATO lol lol