Current Affairs Ukraine

[Tramps_mate]

Just driving home before , on Talkradio some "expert" saying Putin sacked another 2 of his Best Military Generals today .
Joked they might fall from a window.

Reckoned Putin now at a crossroads as his strategy has not worked , the Russian populous are now against the war.
On a knife edge which way he goes now.

The Russian people or some high ranking army officials need to take over ASAP now..

 

[Tramps_mate]

I see this used a lot, but why is that the case? I mean across NATO the collective armed forces and nuclear arsenal are far larger than that of Russia. If a NATO member was invaded would we be using the same language, that we can't fight back because Putin might use a nuclear weapon?

Russia own half of the worlds nuclear weapons..

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Well, yes. I agree that a lot of people make this assumption, when it's unlikely that even Putin would resort to strategic nuckear weapons in the event of NATO involvement. On the other hand, the consequences would be so horrific that 'unlikely' is still too much of a risk, really.

It does kind of undermine the concept of a nuclear deterrent if even the slightest military engagement with someone invokes screams of "we're going to be nuked (despite having far more nukes than them)"

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Russia own half of the worlds nuclear weapons..

Yes, and NATO pretty much own the other half, and yet we're to believe that this fact is no deterrent at all and the moment NATO shoots down a single Russian plane that Coventry will be flattened again.

 

[Tramps_mate]

Good. It's obscene how imbalanced global wealth is. Usmanov spending $800,000,000US on a boat needing 90+ people to operate it while people die everyday of poverty, famine and disease. Nobody should have that level of wealth.

My fear with Ukraine holding their ground is it will force putins hand to escalate further. I'm not saying they should fly the white flag by any means but Putin is clearly off his rocker going in there in the first place. The initial invasion hasn't gone to plan, now he's resorted to flattening places. What if that doesn't work? What next. He's already talking about the Ukraine having chem weapons, another false flag as he prepares the world for himself to use one? I honestly don't see how this ends with anything other than ww3?

I still think that if the Russians want Crimea and the other two regions then they should just give them. If that stops the way. But can Putin be trusted!

 

[Bruce Wayne]

All meanwhile Russia commits the most horrendous crimes in Ukraine and NATO doesn't want to commit even regular troops, much less any nuclear ones.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I still think that if the Russians want Crimea and the other two regions then they should just give them. If that stops the way. But can Putin be trusted!

Ah, the old "just give Hitler Sudetenland" play...

 

[SteveSC]

Yes, and NATO pretty much own the other half, and yet we're to believe that this fact is no deterrent at all and the moment NATO shoots down a single Russian plane that Coventry will be flattened again.

I'm with you Bruce. For Putin taking Ukraine is to make a point and more importantly it's for control of gas and oil.

Putin knows damn well that the West need his gas and oil. He knew they wouldnt intervene with military power. What he probably didn't count on them doing though was using as many sanctions as they did.

His arrogance probably never considered companies pulling out either. He's a dinosaur and given the modern society we live in he missed the trick.

End of day though the people that have him in power don't want nuclear war especially given most of them live or have family in the countries he would target.

 

[Tramps_mate]

All meanwhile Russia commits the most horrendous crimes in Ukraine and NATO doesn't want to commit even regular troops, much less any nuclear ones.

I think Putin knows if it came to a regular battle against NATO, he would be defeated completely within a week.. the threat of the nuclear weapons prevents NATO from acting.

Surely our intelligence services know where he is and can have him removed?

 

[john jako]

Russia own half of the worlds nuclear weapons..

This is abit like Everton having loads of money. Can’t use it due to FFP and if we do we mess it up.

Launching 1 nuclear weapon is a big process and takes a lot of planning. From watching Russia’s assault on Ukraine I’d imagine russia aren’t even prepared to launch them. logistics doesn’t seem to be Russia’s strong point and these things take alot of logistics.

 

[PhilM]

It does kind of undermine the concept of a nuclear deterrent if even the slightest military engagement with someone invokes screams of "we're going to be nuked (despite having far more nukes than them)"

It's not as simplistic as that. There's clear concerns of escalation, with nuclear weapons being a part, but there's more to keeping our distance than that alone.

 

[Neiler]

Just driving home before , on Talkradio some "expert" saying Putin sacked another 2 of his Best Military Generals today .
Joked they might fall from a window.

Reckoned Putin now at a crossroads as his strategy has not worked , the Russian populous are now against the war.
On a knife edge which way he goes now.

Id love that to be true, though we have to remember we are being given information by the Western media, Russia don’t give a flyer about making slow progress in my opinion, in fact it suits them, Ukraine are running out of medical supplies, food and water. While Putin will relish sticking two fingers up against the West raising tensions and assessing weak spots and responses to see how much he can get away with. Russia are used to slow progressive wars, they've done it everywhere, they can be like a constrictor just slowly squeeze the life out of a country through attrition, cutting supply lines and siege and then install their regime. The longer they sit there the more tension they raise politically, the more Ukraine become desperate. Putin is perfectly happy to accept sanctions and put his people into poverty. Adrenaline is there the first few weeks, but as conditions get harder people become desperate. Certainly some of the scenes around Ukrainian people in cites fighting for food or children dying of dehydration are desperate.

I dont wholly buy the incompetence of the Russian army thing that comes from Western Media outlets, we're as vulnerable to propaganda as anyone, Putin is a serious dude, im sure there are wins for Ukraine, but this dude knows what hes doing he was at this for almost a year, arguably a decade in Checynya, through sieges and attrition and has been planning his Ukraine offensive for a long time. They are in key strategic areas outside cities, ground is going to start getting harder now, the weather better and Ukraine's supply lines in these cities are diminishing. Hes perfectly happy i think holding this hand for now and making slow incremental progress.

For me his end game is to have a puppet regime right on the doorstep of the EU and NATO and curb the west to east influence and political and military pathways for the intervening nations to the EU and Nato. Its quite possible he can achieve this - only Ukraine can stop him, because it doesn't seem that anyone else is prepared to go in there.

 

[Yarrgh]

Id love that to be true, though we have to remember we are being given information by the Western media, Russia don’t give a flyer about making slow progress in my opinion, in fact it suits them, Ukraine are running out of medical supplies, food and water. While Putin will relish sticking two fingers up against the West raising tensions and assessing weak spots and responses to see how much he can get away with. Russia are used to slow progressive wars, they've done it everywhere, they can be like a constrictor just slowly squeeze the life out of a country through attrition, cutting supply lines and siege and then install their regime. The longer they sit there the more tension they raise politically, the more Ukraine become desperate. Putin is perfectly happy to accept sanctions and put his people into poverty. Adrenaline is there the first few weeks, but as conditions get harder people become desperate. Certainly some of the scenes around Ukrainian people in cites fighting for food or children dying of dehydration are desperate.

I dont wholly buy the incompetence of the Russian army thing that comes from Western Media outlets, we're as vulnerable to propaganda as anyone, Putin is a serious dude, im sure there are wins for Ukraine, but this dude knows what hes doing he was at this for almost a year, arguably a decade in Checynya, through sieges and attrition and has been planning his Ukraine offensive for a long time. They are in key strategic areas outside cities, ground is going to start getting harder now, the weather better and Ukraine's supply lines in these cities are diminishing. Hes perfectly happy i think holding this hand for now and making slow incremental progress.

For me his end game is to have a puppet regime right on the doorstep of the EU and NATO and curb the west to east influence and political and military pathways for the intervening nations to the EU and Nato. Its quite possible he can achieve this - only Ukraine can stop him, because it doesn't seem that anyone else is prepared to go in there.

That's the problem with looking at a war strategy that's different in time scale and nature than what we'd do. Constriction is probably a very good description of the Russian tactics and if they tolerate higher losses they will probably settle in for the long term grind. Can see this going on for years and years - Russia 'excels' at 'frozen' wars.

What a goddamn unnecessary mess and waste of human life this is.

 

[Neiler]

That's the problem with looking at a war strategy that's different in time scale and nature than what we'd do. Constriction is probably a very good description of the Russian tactics and if they tolerate higher losses they will probably settle in for the long term grind. Can see this going on for years and years - Russia 'excels' at 'frozen' wars.

What a goddamn unnecessary mess and waste of human life this is.

This is it in my opinion mate. This could go on for a long time, with slow incremental progress made, everyone thinks there will be a quick end to this, there very likely will not be. Western and media attention will turn elsewhere and Russia will grind it out, either they take the country or things get so desperate in Ukraine Zelensky agrees to a deal to save his citizens from death, either through hunger and conditions or just making rubble of the cities. What else can happen, Ukraine's are already in their cities defending them, the Russians are in strategic positions outside siegeing, two weeks into this things for the Ukrainians are getting desperate running out of food, water and medicine - it it goes on for long weeks, months or years things are only going to get worse. We have to be very careful what the Western media is feeding us, its has an agenda and its own political influences.

The West dont look like intervening or want to really - so the media will fill us up on Ukrainian wins, as this goes on Western support will wain over time and we will post memes about tractors from a far and say its terrible that the Ukrainians are starving and another hospital or creche is shelled, then give out about the cost of petrol. All the while the Russian constrictor tightens, gaining inch by inch control and continues to stick its fingers up to the the West and say "come on and stop us if you think your hard enough" and the west wont. Russia know what they are at and are pretty happy with how things are panning out in my opinion - there isnt a chance in the world they thought this would be a two week campaign, they are there for the long haul, years if needs be.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

It does kind of undermine the concept of a nuclear deterrent if even the slightest military engagement with someone invokes screams of "we're going to be nuked (despite having far more nukes than them)"

I agree. We are basically telling the world that if you have nuclear weapons you can do what you want and we will not respond through direct conflict. Kind of makes the threat impotent. It will be interesting, though incredibly sad, to see what impact and how quickly economic war through mega sanctions, has.