Current Affairs Ukraine

[Frenk]

A nuclear or chemical escalation would require NATO to very quickly re-think its strategy and could possibly draw them into direct conflict with Russia.

I can’t give you a definitive answer but it would mean a total re-think from NATO.

If Putin opts to go go the nuke route then it’s a serious own goal for him as the prevailing wind is west to east so Rostov would be subject to significant radiation.

I think the next escalatory step for Putin would be a chemical weapon rather than a nuke - the horror of which will be too much for the west to stand by and watch.

Unless Ukraine agrees to Russia’s demands then things are gonna get uglier.

Nuking a next door neighbor would also bring substantial risk to his own country too, even without retaliation. It also brings into question the idea that he want to restore the old Soviet Union. Would Nuking Ukraine kind of go against all that.? I don’t know, just some thoughts that come to mind, that all.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Nuking a next door neighbor would also bring substantial risk to his own country too, even without retaliation. It also brings into question the idea that he want to restore the old Soviet Union. Would Nuking Ukraine kind of go against all that.? I don’t know, just some thoughts that come to mind, that all.

Thing is his armed forces have been shown up to be Sh1te. If they were half way decent they’d have wrapped this thing up by now.

Reports flying around are that he’s lost close to 10K killed and if you apply standard battlefield maths of a ratio of 3:1 for wounded that means a further 30K have been wounded. Now think about how many Russian scruffs just dropped their weapons and ran away? Let’s be generous to Putin and say 5K legged it.

So out of 180K - he’s lost 45K. That’s a force degradation of 22% and that’s not even looking at the amount of tanks, IFV’s, aircraft, heli’s and other hardware that he’s lost.

It’s a serious problem for him as these personnel losses would have been his so-called “elite” assault troops. What’s left are 2nd and 3rd echelon troops.

He brought in the Chechens - they got slapped, now he’s bringing in Syrians and Africans - well they’re gonna get slapped as well. Then he has a decision to make. He can’t win this war so what does he do?

That’s when it gets scary.

 

[Davideeyore]

'Nuke whom'. Nuclear armageddon, the end of the world, and deaths of all our loved ones, is not an excuse for imprecise grammar. Tsk!

As Reece said to Sarah in The Terminator, 'there was a nuclear war, abou 40 years from now'. In 1984.

 

[Wizard]

Thing is his armed forces have been shown up to be Sh1te. If they were half way decent they’d have wrapped this thing up by now.

Reports flying around are that he’s lost close to 10K killed and if you apply standard battlefield maths of a ratio of 3:1 for wounded that means a further 30K have been wounded. Now think about how many Russian scruffs just dropped their weapons and ran away? Let’s be generous to Putin and say 5K legged it.

So out of 180K - he’s lost 45K. That’s a force degradation of 22% and that’s not even looking at the amount of tanks, IFV’s, aircraft, heli’s and other hardware that he’s lost.

It’s a serious problem for him as these personnel losses would have been his so-called “elite” assault troops. What’s left are 2nd and 3rd echelon troops.

He brought in the Chechens - they got slapped, now he’s bringing in Syrians and Africans - well they’re gonna get slapped as well. Then he has a decision to make. He can’t win this war so what does he do?

That’s when it gets scary.

Is there any chance he’s thrown in the fodder first in terms of troops? (I feel horrendous using that term about humans by the way but don’t know how to put it better). The loss of equipment does seem to have been huge which is good news in the Ukrainian’s holding them off

 

[thirdmantackle]

Is there any chance he’s thrown in the fodder first in terms of troops? (I feel horrendous using that term about humans by the way but don’t know how to put it better). The loss of equipment does seem to have been huge which is good news in the Ukrainian’s holding them off

Yes, he's probably thrown in mainly conscripts, many with crap equipment and basic provisions/ammo supply
The proper professional soldiers are probably sitting inside Russia still

 

[daza_1973]

As Reece said to Sarah in The Terminator, 'there was a nuclear war, abou 40 years from now'. In 1984.

Yes, but the machines started it

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Ukraine was never actually close to joining NATO though. They only started asking to join after Russia invaded them in 2014 and the war started in the Donbass, however NATO has a rule against countries joining who have ongoing conflicts/disputed regions. The whole idea that this war is about NATO expansion is mostly false.

If Ukraine was ever accepted to NATO then yes, NATO soldiers would be stationed there. Keep in mind though NATO already has soldiers in the Baltics.

This
Ukraine was miles off meeting the requirements for NATO admission
I’m sure the goals have moved recently though

 

[Glasshalffull]

Yeah NATO should be careful, however its Russia's fault that countries bordering them want to be in NATO.

Yes, but although this conflict is down to Putin being a megalomaniac, with a substantial number of loose screws in his head, there's the chicken and egg situation of the more bordering countries want to join NATO, the more Russia wants to invade, and the more Russia is inclined to invade, the more bordering countries want to join NATO.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Is there any chance he’s thrown in the fodder first in terms of troops? (I feel horrendous using that term about humans by the way but don’t know how to put it better). The loss of equipment does seem to have been huge which is good news in the Ukrainian’s holding them off

Unfortunately no. He committed his elite air assault units (VDV). They got battered. He has also committed his Spetsnaz units - they’ve also been badly mauled. He put in his Chechens, they were slaughtered. He’s lost at least 3 high ranking generals and a mob of high- ranking officers.

His 1st and 4th guards tank armies have been malleted. Only his naval infantry assault units in the south have had any success.

I’d say he’s lost a big chunk of his elite units already

 

[DualityNSNO]

Is there any chance he’s thrown in the fodder first in terms of troops? (I feel horrendous using that term about humans by the way but don’t know how to put it better). The loss of equipment does seem to have been huge which is good news in the Ukrainian’s holding them off

I think this was hinted at by some experts from some of the videos

Spoiler

(like the one of them gunning down the old couple in the car)

- they don't seem to have good control of anything and take ages to make maneuvers, which means they're still new, at least the "drivers"...

Also I won't be surprised just in general tbh. I feel I can say with certainty that this is the exact same terminology he's used for his own people as well also, sadly.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Unfortunately no. He had committed his elite air assault units (VDV). They got battered. He has also committed his Spetsnaz units - they’ve also been badly mauled. He put in his Chechens, they were slaughtered. He’s lost at least 3 high ranking generals and a mob of high- ranking officers.

His 1st and 4th guards tank armies have been malleted. Only his naval assault units in the south have had any success.

I’d say he’s lost a big chunk of his elite units already

I doubt that btw, the spetsnaz at least. There were rumours that they are conscripts who got amazing surprise last second promotions, which I'm willing to believe.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I doubt that btw, the spetsnaz at least. There were rumours that they are conscripts who got amazing surprise last second promotions, which I'm willing to believe.

Spetsnaz units are as far as Russian military philisophy is concerned the “tip of the spear”.

Go back to the early airborne assault Hostomel airfield just NW of Kyiv. That was a key target. They would have made up a large portion of the assault troops in that engagement.

Fact is they got battered. Take nothing from them though - they just didn’t get any armour to support them and the Ukes steamrollered them.

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

It really does show how fragile peace is.

I never thought we would be stupid enough to have another World War but then that was exactly the thinking following the first... Never again.

 

[Frenk]

This
Ukraine was miles off meeting the requirements for NATO admission
I’m sure the goals have moved recently though

Agree, but look at the meetings they had towards the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, I believe not long after that in April of 2021 there was a significant build-up of Russian troops along the Ukraine border. I’m not saying it is the cause, but I am sure it is causing anger.

 

[Aberblue]

Yes, he's probably thrown in mainly conscripts, many with crap equipment and basic provisions/ammo supply
The proper professional soldiers are probably sitting inside Russia still

But Russia went into this war underequipped from a logistics standpoint. Both soldiers and equipment were minimally supplied, and after two weeks, they have troops who are apparently running out of food, ammunition, and fuel. Their supply lines are highly exposed to attacks from Ukrainians. It's by no means certain that supplies are available in Russia, and getting stuff from outside Russia won't be easy, given sanctions and the economic blockade.