Current Affairs Ukraine

[Simon Buttle]

I simply don't follow the logic here. I cannot see why donated jets would be Putin's "line in the sand" that would see him declare war on NATO. Let me explain my thinking.

Several Western countries, including the USA, the UK, several EU states and some non-EU NATO countries, have sent and continue to send weapons and munitions in significant volume to Ukraine. Most notably the MANPADs and NLAWs that have been used to significant effect against Russian aircraft and Russian armoured vehicles, enouh that Putin's original timetable of invasion has been completely thrown out the window. Add to that the very public use of Bayraktar drones - donated or sold by Turkey, IIRC, to Ukraine - to slow down and degrade Russian armoured columns and supply vehicles. THEN consider the shipments of bullets, grenades, rifles, machine guns etc etc that have been very openly supplied by various governments - the Finnish government listed exactly what they were sending on their official website!

All this kit is being used to shoot down Russian helicopters and planes, to blow up Russian tanks, to kill Russian troops: but despite it being absolutely confirmed, open knowledge that NATO countries and non-NATO EU countries are supplying this kit, Putin hasn't escalated.

I grudgingly concede that deploying NATO planes / helicopters with NATO pilots would be a different kettle of fish, but just giving the jets to Ukraine in the same way we're giving them hundreds of anti-air and anti-armour weapons each day? No, I don't get it.

Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe Putin drawing this line is simply more evidence that he's gone entirely off the reservation.

I do wonder what else is being provided by the West though - I bet the number of transport helicopters and armoured fighting vehicles in the Ukrainian military has mysteriously increased in the last ten days.

Id be interested to know from one of the ex forces folk on here, what point does it get to when the west has given all the munitions/stuff it can give to Ukraine before it's at the stage where the only thing left to give is actually troops or planes or tanks etc,etc.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

I simply don't follow the logic here. I cannot see why donated jets would be Putin's "line in the sand" that would see him declare war on NATO. Let me explain my thinking.

Several Western countries, including the USA, the UK, several EU states and some non-EU NATO countries, have sent and continue to send weapons and munitions in significant volume to Ukraine. Most notably the MANPADs and NLAWs that have been used to significant effect against Russian aircraft and Russian armoured vehicles, enouh that Putin's original timetable of invasion has been completely thrown out the window. Add to that the very public use of Bayraktar drones - donated or sold by Turkey, IIRC, to Ukraine - to slow down and degrade Russian armoured columns and supply vehicles. THEN consider the shipments of bullets, grenades, rifles, machine guns etc etc that have been very openly supplied by various governments - the Finnish government listed exactly what they were sending on their official website!

All this kit is being used to shoot down Russian helicopters and planes, to blow up Russian tanks, to kill Russian troops: but despite it being absolutely confirmed, open knowledge that NATO countries and non-NATO EU countries are supplying this kit, Putin hasn't escalated.

I grudgingly concede that deploying NATO planes / helicopters with NATO pilots would be a different kettle of fish, but just giving the jets to Ukraine in the same way we're giving them hundreds of anti-air and anti-armour weapons each day? No, I don't get it.

Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe Putin drawing this line is simply more evidence that he's gone entirely off the reservation.

I do wonder what else is being provided by the West though - I bet the number of transport helicopters and armoured fighting vehicles in the Ukrainian military has mysteriously increased in the last ten days.

The issue is that they would be a highly valuable asset being supplied directly from a NATO territory, with direct contact between Ukranian forces and NATO forces.

The plan was to bus Ukranian pilots to the bases where the Polish planes are based and have them fly back to Ukraine. Presumably you'd need some massive transfer of spares and logs as well.

It would, just from the optics, be a pretty serious escalation.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Id be interested to know from one of the ex forces folk on here, what point does it get to when the west has given all the munitions/stuff it can give to Ukraine before it's at the stage where the only thing left to give is actually troops or planes or tanks etc,etc.

With how terrifyingly well equipped the US military are and how little use most NATO members will have gotten from their munitions, that point will be a while away.

 

[Tree13]

Send the anchor to the front lines to do some reporting.

Something about Russian state television reminds me of the "Hunger Games" movies and their portrayal of the denizens of the capital.

 

[Tree13]

How would that work? By force? Good luck with that.

Are you advocating doing nothing?

 

[grandjoeblue]

Are you advocating doing nothing?

My preference is sanctions and diplomatic negotiations over time not the end of the world.

 

[Tree13]

The issue is that they would be a highly valuable asset being supplied directly from a NATO territory, with direct contact between Ukranian forces and NATO forces.

The plan was to bus Ukranian pilots to the bases where the Polish planes are based and have them fly back to Ukraine. Presumably you'd need some massive transfer of spares and logs as well.

It would, just from the optics, be a pretty serious escalation.

How is that different from the current transfer of weapons and ammunition? Aren't they coming directly from NATO territories, with direct contact between NATO-allied forces and Ukrainian forces?

At the risk of sounding flippant, I presume it isn't deliveroo handling the actual logistics of moving hundreds of missiles, thousands of rifles and a couple million bullets.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Syria recruiting troops from its military to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine

Up to 16,000 volunteers to be paid $3,000 a month – a sum up to 50 times a Syrian soldier’s monthly salary

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tree13]

My preference is sanctions and diplomatic negotiations over time not the end of the world.

So continue the sanctions until Russia gives up nuclear weapons?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This is seemingly already WW3 just not officially yet and being fought in Ukraine, for the time being.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Lobster Johnson]

How is that different from the current transfer of weapons and ammunition? Aren't they coming directly from NATO territories, with direct contact between NATO-allied forces and Ukrainian forces?

At the risk of sounding flippant, I presume it isn't deliveroo handling the actual logistics of moving hundreds of missiles, thousands of rifles and a couple million bullets.

That's correct, of course. But Russia doesn't have a big radar alerting it when trucks and trains cross the border and, therefore, plausible deniability is maintained.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Are you advocating doing nothing?

Russia are not giving up their nuclear weapons. Even if their population is starving there will be money to replenish their warheads.

You can't invade to take them off them so I nothing can be done about it. The only hope is eventually Russia get a modernist leader who wants to work in cooperation with the west and agrees to reduced numbers. If we can get to a point there is only hundreds instead of thousands in the stockpile then if the worst does happen least there might be areas still habitable on Earth.

 

[LinekersLegs]

How is that different from the current transfer of weapons and ammunition? Aren't they coming directly from NATO territories, with direct contact between NATO-allied forces and Ukrainian forces?

At the risk of sounding flippant, I presume it isn't deliveroo handling the actual logistics of moving hundreds of missiles, thousands of rifles and a couple million bullets.

I’d assume that the issue is that you offer an easy target when the high value transfer is happening, the air base, versus a decentralized and hard to to identify fleet of trucks etc carrying comparatively lower value items.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Russia are not giving up their nuclear weapons. Even if their population is starving there will be money to replenish their warheads.

You can't invade to take them off them so I nothing can be done about it. The only hope is eventually Russia get a modernist leader who wants to work in cooperation with the west and agrees to reduced numbers. If we can get to a point there is only hundreds instead of thousands in the stockpile then if the worst does happen least there might be areas still habitable on Earth.

This is the only realistic approach to this scenario. Unless you live somewhere like the Falklands or Faroe Islands nuclear war probably shouldn't be on your wish list. Quite surprising how many people think it's the most logical next step.