Its hard to call really.
Putin wants to draw the west in, of that there is no doubt. He can justify his invasion back hone the second NATO intervenes militarily.
Ultimately I think what China/SA does or doesnt do will have a major say in what happens.
This is why, in general, i think the West has made about the best fist of this it could.
The difference between 1939 and today is that the world is infinitely more connected and interdependent. An isolationist strategy is economic suicide.
The key here is not to get into a shooting match with Russia regardless of provocation and wait for economics to grind down Putin's war machine or make his position untenable (whilst providing a face saving off-ramp for Russia).
I think NATO the US and the EU are walking that tightrope pretty effectively presently.