Current Affairs Ukraine
- Thread starter Mutzo Nutzo
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Scariest bit of Putin’s speech for me (and there was a lot of scary stuff) was the reference he made to the Baltic states and how he regrets granting them independence.
Alarm bells should now be ringing in NATO’s HQ. This won’t stop with Ukraine - he wants to re-establish the Soviet Union.
Alarm bells should now be ringing in NATO’s HQ. This won’t stop with Ukraine - he wants to re-establish the Soviet Union.
I'd be amazed tbh.
Yarrgh
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Cheers Ursula! Sort the Irish border out whilst you're at it.
Martin Alvito
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I wouldn't go that far, but he wants NATO off Russia's present borders. That means retaking, puppeting, or reducing Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltics to failed states.
Now, NATO has a decision to make with respect to the Baltic countries.
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It certainly does. He’s been trying for years to undermine the political leadership in Estonia as well as “creating” situations that discredit foreign NATO troops stationed there.
Tipp blue
If I agreed with you, we’d both be wrong.
tsubaki
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That should be a very easy decision for them to make - if they are up for it (and I've no doubt they are) they've got to have many NATO troops based there; in fact that whole border needs it.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Let's recap what we saw.
Putin is a former KGB operative trained to think in the military manner. He is evaluating capabilities, not intentions. Intentions can change at a moment's notice. Altering capabilities takes time.
From his perspective, NATO is an offensive alliance aimed at his destruction. This is probably true, though not in the way he portrayed the problem. Does NATO pose a more credible offensive nuclear threat as more accurate counter-force targeting capabilities and hypersonic missiles are developed? You bet. Is that the plan to bring him down? Probably not. Our preferred methodology has always been providing propaganda and economic support to dissenting elements in authoritarian countries. See: Spring, Arab and Europe, Radio Free.
The flaw in his argument is that pushing NATO back to Poland doesn't solve his long-term security problems. It helps, to be sure. It buys a few minutes of time to respond to a disabling counter-force strike at hypersonic speeds. It renders an invasion crossing puppet states to reach him politically unpalatable. It probably follows that he's after something else, at the end of the day.
He's stoking the same sort of nationalist resentments that are part of the standard authoritarian playbook for resisting the West. It doesn't necessarily follow that he plans to expand his territory further. He certainly made an argument for taking Ukraine into his fold. That may be a bluff, or it may not. History is full of examples of authoritarian states that used a policy of territorial expansion to secure legitimacy and retain their grip on power. There are plenty of others that have not.
Imposing heavy sanctions now is probably a mistake, because at that point why not invade Ukraine? If I were advising Biden, I would tell him that at this point the best play is to coordinate with allies to impose some somewhat meaningful sanctions, solidify support among allies for a package that would hit Russia and its oligarchs where they live, and make very clear what will happen if an invasion goes forward.
That's all we can do short of deciding now is the time for war. Even if the broad-based popular support and allied commitment were there, I don't think this is the time or the place, militarily. It's time for the US and its allies to end the ambiguity on their side of the fence, and force Putin's hand.
Putin is a former KGB operative trained to think in the military manner. He is evaluating capabilities, not intentions. Intentions can change at a moment's notice. Altering capabilities takes time.
From his perspective, NATO is an offensive alliance aimed at his destruction. This is probably true, though not in the way he portrayed the problem. Does NATO pose a more credible offensive nuclear threat as more accurate counter-force targeting capabilities and hypersonic missiles are developed? You bet. Is that the plan to bring him down? Probably not. Our preferred methodology has always been providing propaganda and economic support to dissenting elements in authoritarian countries. See: Spring, Arab and Europe, Radio Free.
The flaw in his argument is that pushing NATO back to Poland doesn't solve his long-term security problems. It helps, to be sure. It buys a few minutes of time to respond to a disabling counter-force strike at hypersonic speeds. It renders an invasion crossing puppet states to reach him politically unpalatable. It probably follows that he's after something else, at the end of the day.
He's stoking the same sort of nationalist resentments that are part of the standard authoritarian playbook for resisting the West. It doesn't necessarily follow that he plans to expand his territory further. He certainly made an argument for taking Ukraine into his fold. That may be a bluff, or it may not. History is full of examples of authoritarian states that used a policy of territorial expansion to secure legitimacy and retain their grip on power. There are plenty of others that have not.
Imposing heavy sanctions now is probably a mistake, because at that point why not invade Ukraine? If I were advising Biden, I would tell him that at this point the best play is to coordinate with allies to impose some somewhat meaningful sanctions, solidify support among allies for a package that would hit Russia and its oligarchs where they live, and make very clear what will happen if an invasion goes forward.
That's all we can do short of deciding now is the time for war. Even if the broad-based popular support and allied commitment were there, I don't think this is the time or the place, militarily. It's time for the US and its allies to end the ambiguity on their side of the fence, and force Putin's hand.
FrenchDarrenBent
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Looked a bit uncontrolled/flustered Putin. Thought he would've rehearsed this ten times in his bathroom
Tipp blue
If I agreed with you, we’d both be wrong.
Ah yes "peacekeeping"
It's that special type of peacekeeping where they kill thousands of people to stop the thousands of people being upset that the Russians are there illegally.
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