Current Affairs Ukraine

[tommytowne]

Watched the BBC prog on the Rise of the Nazis last night.
The thrust of this excellent production was the fact the Stalin ignored the warnings of Molotov in particular, that the massive build up of the German war machine along the entire western Soviet border was not Hitler's assertion that he was engaging his forces in war games as a prelude to invading Britain, but preparations for a full on invasion of Russia.
Just a thought at this moment in time.

 

[devogue]

So Russia have expelled a US ambassador, started burning documents at their embassy in Kiev and the rebels they back in Donbass have shelled a Kindergarten. Looks like it might all kick off quite soon.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Just read Russia's response to US security guarantee proposals (they've taken 3 weeks to respond).

1. Basically told the US to pipe down and remove all US forces and weapons from Central and eastern Europe and the Baltic States.

2. De-escalation requires complete fulfillment by Ukraine to honour the Minsk agreement (essentially hand over Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia).

Neither 1 or 2 will never happen so looks like Putin will have his war

 

[Woolverhampton_Blue]

Just read Russia's response to US security guarantee proposals (they've taken 3 weeks to respond).

1. Basically told the US to pipe down and remove all US forces and weapons from Central and eastern Europe and the Baltic States.

2. De-escalation requires complete fulfillment by Ukraine to honour the Minsk agreement (essentially hand over Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia).

Neither 1 or 2 will never happen so looks like Putin will have his war

Do you think he will actually go in?

I was sure they would earlier but the longer it goes on the less sure I am.

 

[dublinbluenose]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Do you think he will actually go in?

I was sure they would earlier but the longer it goes on the less sure I am.

My own opinion is that he will. Starting to see now the pretext for war.

1. Russia's Duma (Parliament) yesterday requested that Putin officially recognise Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent states. He then went on air to say that acts of genocide against native russians were taking place in those regions.

2. Massive cyber attacks against Ukraine's govt and military infrastructure

3. Artillery bombardments last night in the east of Ukraine (Russia claiming it was Ukrainian forces)

4. Russia assault units out of their staging areas and into final assault positions

5. Russia's response to the US on security proposals for Ukraine. Essentially Putin wants Ukraine to accept Minsk protocol and hand over Donetsk and Luhansk and also all US forces out of Central/Eastern Europe and to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine

6. Russia expelling US deputy ambassador in Moscow

Anytime now

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Twitter just gone off air?

 

[tsubaki]

Watched the BBC prog on the Rise of the Nazis last night.
The thrust of this excellent production was the fact the Stalin ignored the warnings of Molotov in particular, that the massive build up of the German war machine along the entire western Soviet border was not Hitler's assertion that he was engaging his forces in war games as a prelude to invading Britain, but preparations for a full on invasion of Russia.
Just a thought at this moment in time.

That was a great programme, but it really did show how the limitations of the format at least in terms of how a viewer could understand why Stalin did that; I mean it seems inexplicable but when you look at what he had been doing during the 30s and 40s (up to that point) its very understandable. The man probably saw himself as God.

 

[tsubaki]

My own opinion is that he will. Starting to see now the pretext for war.

1. Russia's Duma (Parliament) yesterday requested that Putin officially recognise Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent states. He then went on air to say that acts of genocide against native russians were taking place in those regions.

2. Massive cyber attacks against Ukraine's govt and military infrastructure

3. Artillery bombardments last night in the east of Ukraine (Russia claiming it was Ukrainian forces)

4. Russia assault units out of their staging areas and into final assault positions

5. Russia's response to the US on security proposals for Ukraine. Essentially Putin wants Ukraine to accept Minsk protocol and hand over Donetsk and Luhansk and also all US forces out of Central/Eastern Europe and to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine

6. Russia expelling US deputy ambassador in Moscow

Anytime now

It is so difficult to find any logic whatsoever in his motives right now. Either he doesn't fear any consequences whatsoever (including NATO ramping up on the border in a very large way and going back to the Cold War again) or he is just crazy; either is very worrying.

 

[Martin Alvito]

So Russia have expelled a US ambassador, started burning documents at their embassy in Kiev and the rebels they back in Donbass have shelled a Kindergarten. Looks like it might all kick off quite soon.

The DCM is, more often than not, the spymaster and on CIA's payroll. The Russians may have had evidence of this, or may have expelled him on general principles.

Putin is certainly doing everything in his power to show that he means business. In general, this either means he believes he has a very strong hand, or is holding a very weak one and wants the opposition to believe his hand is strong.

Given his positioning on the diplomatic front, either he doesn't understand his adversaries (incredibly unlikely) or he's prepared to go to war unless he receives concessions he knows he'll never get through diplomacy.

 

[tsubaki]

The DCM is, more often than not, the spymaster and on CIA's payroll. The Russians may have had evidence of this, or may have expelled him on general principles.

Putin is certainly doing everything in his power to show that he means business. In general, this either means he believes he has a very strong hand, or is holding a very weak one and wants the opposition to believe his hand is strong.

Given his positioning on the diplomatic front, either he doesn't understand his adversaries (incredibly unlikely) or he's prepared to go to war unless he receives concessions he knows he'll never get through diplomacy.

TBF this does beg the question of how good a leader he actually is - I mean, its in his and Western government's interests to puff him up as a scary bad guy but in terms of what he actually does its rather more questionable. For example the Skirpal assassination failed and was easily traced back to them; Khangoshvili's worked but was traced back to them and the suspect caught, and that airliner shootdown was obviously them too.

I think he thinks because of the sh*t hes gotten away with in the past that he will get away with this but I am really doubtful that he will - its too threatening to too many people (basically all of Europe).

 

[roydo]

TBF this does beg the question of how good a leader he actually is - I mean, its in his and Western government's interests to puff him up as a scary bad guy but in terms of what he actually does its rather more questionable. For example the Skirpal assassination failed and was easily traced back to them; Khangoshvili's worked but was traced back to them and the suspect caught, and that airliner shootdown was obviously them too.

I think he thinks because of the sh*t hes gotten away with in the past that he will get away with this but I am really doubtful that he will - its too threatening to too many people (basically all of Europe).

Putin has made himself a multi billionaire, whilst being paid circa £70000 a year as President.

Everything he does is to protect himself from that being taken away.

 

[Mrk]

Finding it really interesting that the UK & USA are using their overwhelming intelligence gathering capabilities to try and wrong-foot Putin on a daily basis:



Think there's a fair amount of truth in this:

 

[tommytowne]

That was a great programme, but it really did show how the limitations of the format at least in terms of how a viewer could understand why Stalin did that; I mean it seems inexplicable but when you look at what he had been doing during the 30s and 40s (up to that point) its very understandable. The man probably saw himself as God.

With the demise of history lessons in schools, programmes like that are the next best thing. I thought it was fascinating and will watch the remainder of the series now. As for the complexity of the individuals, I couldn't begin to understand how their minds work.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Thought we were suppose to be at war as of yesterday... One of these days its going to be the right call, its now by the 20th...