Current Affairs Ukraine

[degsy]

the trouble is, none of his political objectives with regards Ukraine are going to be accepted by NATO/EU

Just what are 3 sets of political objectives?
'The West'?
Ukraine?
Russia?
Ukraine is possibly (or not) the easiest - probably just to be left alone...and if that means left alone to mess it up well fair enough - why should they be any different than the rest of us?

'The West' - who can tell? Stumble on to a, post Brexit, post Covid, Trump Mk II, dogs breakfast with China simmering in the back ground
Russia - apply that riddle enigma thing.
But since the Wall came down they have gradually lost their buffer states...and that carries a bit of weight in the Russia psyche.
Then you've got the people that want to return to the 'good old' pre Gorby days.
Where Putin sits in relation to all that, who knows - he probably doesn't care.
He's the boss now and when he's gone to the big KGB office in the sky - devil take the hindmost.

My guess is that there'll be some kind of 'deal' that appears to saves face and Ukraine will get the dirty end of the stick.
A bit like 1956 in Hungary, or the bay of pigs.
But then I would say that not being a big fan of American foreign policy - which, since say the early Eisenhower era seems to consist of not being able to grasp that not everybody wants to be like them, but they lead them on, suck them in, then, when the going gets tough, leave them to fend for themselves
Like the recent carryings on in Kabul.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Just what are 3 sets of political objectives?
'The West'?
Ukraine?
Russia?
Ukraine is possibly (or not) the easiest - probably just to be left alone...and if that means left alone to mess it up well fair enough - why should they be any different than the rest of us?

'The West' - who can tell? Stumble on to a, post Brexit, post Covid, Trump Mk II, dogs breakfast with China simmering in the back ground
Russia - apply that riddle enigma thing.
But since the Wall came down they have gradually lost their buffer states...and that carries a bit of weight in the Russia psyche.
Then you've got the people that want to return to the 'good old' pre Gorby days.
Where Putin sits in relation to all that, who knows - he probably doesn't care.
He's the boss now and when he's gone to the big KGB office in the sky - devil take the hindmost.

My guess is that there'll be some kind of 'deal' that appears to saves face and Ukraine will get the dirty end of the stick.
A bit like 1956 in Hungary, or the bay of pigs.
But then I would say that not being a big fan of American foreign policy - which, since say the early Eisenhower era seems to consist of not being able to grasp that not everybody wants to be like them, but they lead them on, suck them in, then, when the going gets tough, leave them to fend for themselves
Like the recent carryings on in Kabul.

To those points about giving Ukraine the dirty end of the stick with a ‘deal’.

I find it unlikely for a couple of reasons

1) Russia is well aware that they are actually at war with Ukraine and have been for 8 years with thousands of deaths. That is the kind of ‘status quo’ that is unacceptable to them. I cannot imagine without direct subjugation/annexation to Russia that this will end. The Ethnic Russians in the east will never just ‘give up’ the fight.

2) the maidan revolution of 2014 shows that an independent Ukraine will not voluntarily fall into Russias orbit. Once again a ‘generic deal’ won’t alter this.

I genuinely believe the only way out of this for Putin might be a far more aggressive posture than he would like.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Did we send him a questionnaire ?

Nope just a global hawk and the odd Rivet Joint.

 

[peteblue]

Did we send him a questionnaire ?

Lavrov is an American spy….. ( sorry mate, looks like the gulag for you)…….

 

[slipstream86]

My guess is that there'll be some kind of 'deal' that appears to saves face and Ukraine will get the dirty end of the stick.
A bit like 1956 in Hungary, or the bay of pigs.

Agreed. And sadly for Ukraine, it's probably the best outcome for everyone as it stands, including Ukraine.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

lollol

 

[tsubaki]

To those points about giving Ukraine the dirty end of the stick with a ‘deal’.

I find it unlikely for a couple of reasons

1) Russia is well aware that they are actually at war with Ukraine and have been for 8 years with thousands of deaths. That is the kind of ‘status quo’ that is unacceptable to them. I cannot imagine without direct subjugation/annexation to Russia that this will end. The Ethnic Russians in the east will never just ‘give up’ the fight.

2) the maidan revolution of 2014 shows that an independent Ukraine will not voluntarily fall into Russias orbit. Once again a ‘generic deal’ won’t alter this.

I genuinely believe the only way out of this for Putin might be a far more aggressive posture than he would like.

I disagree - there are a few reasons why some form of deal might happen.

The first and most obvious is the frankly crazy way that the Crimea became Ukrainian (basically Khrushchev signed it over in the 50s, probably to try and distance himself from what he'd done during the late 30s whilst Ukrainian boss and allow him to blame Stalin for it). In terms of giving something up, that is probably the easiest and the one that could be done with the least pain - I mean, Ukraine is never going to get it back unless things change radically and had it (as an independent state) for a shade over 20 years; its not like giving up Kiev.

The second is what removing some of these areas (Crimea, Donbass) does to Ukraine politically - it makes the remainder much more anti-Russian, simply by removing so many pro-Russian Ukrainian citizens. As with the Tories and the Scottish independence, removing a chunk of the electorate that will at best never vote for you and at worst block you coming to power does have a certain appeal to it.

Combining both of those is the likely main requirement for Ukraine to join NATO (and the EU for what its worth) - ie: that there are no outstanding territorial or internal complications that could enmesh the alliance in a conflict it didn't want. If Ukraine signed away Crimea and the Donbass and that was recognized internationally (as part of an agreement settling this dispute) then that problem would largely disappear.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I disagree - there are a few reasons why some form of deal might happen.

The first and most obvious is the frankly crazy way that the Crimea became Ukrainian (basically Khrushchev signed it over in the 50s, probably to try and distance himself from what he'd done during the late 30s whilst Ukrainian boss and allow him to blame Stalin for it). In terms of giving something up, that is probably the easiest and the one that could be done with the least pain - I mean, Ukraine is never going to get it back unless things change radically and had it (as an independent state) for a shade over 20 years; its not like giving up Kiev.

The second is what removing some of these areas (Crimea, Donbass) does to Ukraine politically - it makes the remainder much more anti-Russian, simply by removing so many pro-Russian Ukrainian citizens. As with the Tories and the Scottish independence, removing a chunk of the electorate that will at best never vote for you and at worst block you coming to power does have a certain appeal to it.

Combining both of those is the likely main requirement for Ukraine to join NATO (and the EU for what its worth) - ie: that there are no outstanding territorial or internal complications that could enmesh the alliance in a conflict it didn't want. If Ukraine signed away Crimea and the Donbass and that was recognized internationally (as part of an agreement settling this dispute) then that problem would largely disappear.

I think those days of Russian appeasment have gone actually. We have an emboldened NATO and Ukraine, ready to face down Russian intimadation rather than cave into it. We have seen what happens in that area when you attempt to partition one part of the country off from another - war as it is today and has been going on for 8 years.

 

[spectateur]

French Air force very active over central France this morning.
Practicing no doubt.
On their way to Romania?

 

[Kev The Rat]

As an adjunct to the above the Ukrainian PM
Confirms what I think are his, NATO’s and the EU’s view on the topic:



He also mentions they’ve lost 15,000 people over 8 years - the idea of compromise left their thoughts long ago.

 

[slipstream86]

Just heard an interview on BBC with the Ukrainian ambassador to UK. He was quoted as saying a few days ago that Ukraine could be flexible with their NATO ambitions, but he then reaffirmed Zelenskys message today of pressing ahead with NATO alliance.

Sounds like the plan is not so clear cut... Possibly it's just their negotiating posture?

 

[Kev The Rat]

Just heard an interview on BBC with the Ukrainian ambassador to UK. He was quoted as saying a few days ago that Ukraine could be flexible with their NATO ambitions, but he then reaffirmed Zelenskys message today of pressing ahead with NATO alliance.

Sounds like the plan is not so clear cut... Possibly it's just their negotiating posture?

No, I think its clear cut - no turning back for Ukraine.

They've had 15,000 deaths in the eastern part of country in what they term temporarily occupied areas. if they were about to now partition the country they wouldnt have sacrificed that number of lives.

That's why Putin has a major problem on his hands.

 

[Yarrgh]

Just heard an interview on BBC with the Ukrainian ambassador to UK. He was quoted as saying a few days ago that Ukraine could be flexible with their NATO ambitions, but he then reaffirmed Zelenskys message today of pressing ahead with NATO alliance.

Sounds like the plan is not so clear cut... Possibly it's just their negotiating posture?

I don't think Russia will want to have Ukraine in NATO. This makes implementing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine more important. This further increases the chance for sudden invasion in my opinion.

Or contrarily, it reduces the probability of separating and moving into the East of Ukraine such that there's an easier installation of a puppet regime in Kiev.

The Russians will have this all mapped out well in advance though.

What would really throw a spanner into the works would be accepting Ukraine into NATO immediately with a proviso that we don't position any troops there unless it's under attack. Now that's brinkmanship and potentially catastrophic but could solve everything in one go - or it could all go pear shaped.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I don't think Russia will want to have Ukraine in NATO. This makes implementing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine more important. This further increases the chance for sudden invasion in my opinion.

Or contrarily, it reduces the probability of separating and moving into the East of Ukraine such that there's an easier installation of a puppet regime in Kiev.

The Russians will have this all mapped out well in advance though.

What would really throw a spanner into the works would be accepting Ukraine into NATO immediately with a proviso that we don't position any troops there unless it's under attack. Now that's brinkmanship and potentially catastrophic but could solve everything in one go - or it could all go pear shaped.

I think NATO entry is a total red line for Russia, and which is why the Donbass war provides them with a good way of preventing that entry for now.

Regime change would be the easiest way yes, whether that can be achieved without invasion I really dont know. They've been through a revolution in 2014 to remove themselves from Russian control so an 'easy' route back to a pro-Russian government would be nigh on impossible, you would think.

 

[Yarrgh]

I think NATO entry is a total red line for Russia, and which is why the Donbass war provides them with a good way of preventing that entry for now.

Regime change would be the easiest way yes, whether that can be achieved without invasion I really dont know. They've been through a revolution in 2014 to remove themselves from Russian control so an 'easy' route back to a pro-Russian government would be nigh on impossible, you would think.

I imagine that the Russians have been thinking up a way to get Ukraine back under control since 2014 so if there is a way, they'll have it worked out. Don't know how they do it but there's enough crooks in any government to gain leverage from.

Needs a certain Putin to take a dirt nap before any chance of a reset in Ukraine and Russia unfortunately.