Current Affairs Ukraine

[devogue]

 

[catcherintherye]

he is not in NATO, Turkey is. Also why did you edit your post after I replied to it?

I was editing as you were writing. Apologies.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Sounds bleak

 

[Zatara]

No ceasefire

Reported that this will be the case, yes.

Thats bizarre. How rare is it not to have a ceasefire

 

[Martin Alvito]

Deripaska would have been a much bigger surprise back in 2008.

As things stand there's a longstanding rift with Putin, he has the Feds sniffing around and he isn't the juggernaut that he once was, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's going to feel this more than most.

 

[DualityNSNO]

This is the only good mindset. There is a non zero chance he doesn't return as well...

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[DualityNSNO]

Thats bizarre. How rare is it not to have a ceasefire

Very, but is it really a surprise?

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

My position has never been that all of that is "small". It's that the central bank reserves issue is probably a lot more manageable than the trade implications, which are more of a medium and long-term problem.

With a little creativity, Putin can probably finagle a way out of the immediate problems the sanctions create. What will surely be a problem is the implications for government revenues via taxation that will result from a dip in the sale of oil and gas, and the potential inability of those employers to avoid massive layoffs on the production side.

What may also be a problem is difficulty in repairing existing equipment, and producing enough stuff to redirect oil and gas production to plug the hole in revenues. I don't have data that would address that question, and it's way too focused a question to Google. We would need a well-connected area specialist to give us that answer.

Connection to the international banking system won't much matter to most individuals in Russia, as long as alternatives to settling payment can be found. Oligarchs not under sanctions are functionally multinationals that will be inconvenienced. Export and import businesses, and those that depend upon them in order to function, are going to take a hit. The relevant question is how big that punch will be, and what Putin and his economic team have up their sleeves for dealing with it.

To give an example on how European farmers managed to wriggle out of the 2014 sanctions: Sell to an Egyptian intermediary and he sells it to the client in Russia. It costs more but you keep the market.

 

[devogue]

 

[stipe]

This Putin offer for negotiations reminds me of Austro-Hungarian 10 point Ultimatum to Serbia in 1914 that started WW1.

Basically "capitulate or we attack"

 

[Kev The Rat]

This Putin offer for negotiations reminds me of Austro-Hungarian 10 point Ultimatum to Serbia in 1914 that started WW1.

Basically "capitulate or we attack"

That’s it pretty much

 

[DualityNSNO]

This Putin offer for negotiations reminds me of Austro-Hungarian 10 point Ultimatum to Serbia in 1914 that started WW1.

Basically "capitulate or we attack"

It will be 100% that imo.

 

[Tramps_mate]

I'd personally rather Turkey stopped committing human rights abuses in it's own country, and stopped arresting academics.

Is rather they stopped a potential world nuclear war tbh...

 

[CharliePotato]

If you're confused, I can elaborate.

Go on then, where we within four rights to attack Afghanistan, Iraq, Ireland or the Falklands.

Is it any different to what’s happening now?