Current Affairs Ukraine

[TN Toffee]

I don't think that person knows what they're talking about.

"Blowing up" Chernobyl would be a disaster for Ukraine, Russia and the entirety of Europe, regardless of what way the wind was blowing.

Seriously. It’s inconceivably naive to think you could just wait for a nice gust of wind in Russia’s direction and somehow control where the fallout goes.

 

[Kev The Rat]

You're doing that thing again where your baseline assumptions (upon which your arguments are based) are being delivered as though they're facts, when really they're pure conjecture.

I have friends who I work with who are currently at home visiting relatives (or have literally just come back) in St Petersberg and Novosibirsk, who both noted that the Kremlin haven't been able to control this narrative as well as they have others in the past.

One of them said that against a backdrop of economic turmoil after unprecedented sanctions, we can't assume anything when it comes to this ending in a potential regime change at some point in the near-medium term; their justification being that it's a lot easier to quell discontent when people are at least fed with a minimum quality of life guaranteed, but as others have alluded to in the thread, when a society can no longer envision a future better than the present, the pressure of the dam can eventually break.

tl;dr - there's no need to be absolutist about things that are not absolute

I understand the points you are making and I can appreciate you are being even handed

But if I had to guess how this immediate conflict with Ukraine will end, a regime change in Russia would be at or very near the bottom of my list of routes out.

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

They still are, and I'd love to be agreeing with you both here - it'd be great if it does the thing it is aimed to do.

As ridiculous as it might be, Kev is not necessarily wrong - people are doing it, but the same people are being detained/beaten/worse etc. as Russia is not a democracy and never has been - these protests, if big enough, can get ugly and I have absolutely no doubt they'd call in the tanks which remained "for defense purposes" in all the big cities where things usually go wrong.

The big "if" would be if the army turns against the state, then it's game over for Putin. Before that, he holds the cards, he has gulags and jails, protesters can fill them up very easily, thus repeating the fearmongering endlessly.

You probably aren't getting a velvet revolution there.

Probably being hugely naive here, but I do wonder if there are any likely candidates eyeing up the opportunity for a coup d'etat? Probably unlikely, but they can happen in times of crisis and when there's mass civil disobedience.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Yeah, but honestly expected. Also expected is they don't budge and just remain adamant that they "were ready to talk all along"...

Mhm, yes, just sit on this electric chair and we can talk, fellow Ukrainians. It is all peaceful haha yes.

Let me just grab that umbrella with the pointy end.

 

[Drico]

Germans just committed an additional €100bn Euros to defence spending and are going to enshrine 2% of GDP on defence spend in their constitution.

It's a game changer. They're going to become the most powerful military in Europe.

Putin has really cocked this up, strategically. He's re-militarised the Germans.

I live in Berlin. I cannot tell you how significant today's standing ovation for Chancellor Scholz in the Bundestag is.

Without wishing to be flippant, the German war machine has been rebooted after 77 years. The pointed helmets will be coming out of cold storage. German weaponry can now be sold to war zones. 2% of German GDP to be spent on the German Army every year is huge given the sheer size of the German economy. The Panzers are on the roll. I hate to say this, but Putin has opened Pandora's box.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Seriously. It’s inconceivably naive to think you could just wait for a nice gust of wind in Russia’s direction and somehow control where the fallout goes.

You can!

It will go in that direction. Moderately. For, like a few minutes tops. It's not like it's a ship and keeps moving, it will then return to the same place where it's been a problem since an oddly shaped building exploded for some reason.

 

[Kev The Rat]

You probably aren't getting a velvet revolution there.

Probably being hugely naive here, but I do wonder if there are any likely candidates eyeing up the opportunity for a coup d'etat? Probably unlikely, but they can happen in times of crisis and when there's mass civil disobedience.

Yes - maybe an even more hard line group

 

[PhilM]

He’s literally made that up

Oh he has, definitely, but if you remove the exact timings then it's a pretty sensible and plausible strategy for the Russians based on their doctrines of war.

Control of the air and removal of command and control would have dramatically reduced the Ukranian's ability to defend ground and adapt to Russian attacks.

Missing urban areas and encircling troops is again a part of their typical principles of attack: fast-moving on multiple axis and adapting like on the open plains.

Also, after analysing what happened in Crimea etc., US experts came up with something called their New (4th) Generation Warfare (RNGW) doctrine.

A very simplified explanation of this is proxy wars and limited military actions to implement regime change rather than actual tactical victory in battle.

They're not succeeding at that yet nor are they really utilising the doctrine of superior, indirect fire support to supplement attacking on multiple axis to overwhelm.

Russia is successfully being sucked into a slow ground war against dogged and well-prepared defences, which is now moving into urban areas.

This goes against everything what they have planned for in the past 50 years. @Mutzo Nutzo may no more, but their anti-radation arsenal was apparently dire.

 

[DualityNSNO]

You probably aren't getting a velvet revolution there.

Probably being hugely naive here, but I do wonder if there are any likely candidates eyeing up the opportunity for a coup d'etat? Probably unlikely, but they can happen in times of crisis and when there's mass civil disobedience.

Definitely nothing velvety about the situation, again with the big if of the army's participation. If they also turn or stand with the people then Putin might get bullet poisoning...

 

[Mrk]

It keeps Belarus on side though. And keeps the whole of the Ukraine east of Kiev under control by implied threat.

Nobody (least of all me) is suggesting that Chernobyl isn't a logical place to occupy.

What I am suggesting is that if Chernobyl was to be blown up, it would kill millions of people in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and greater Europe. It is not a tactical nuclear weapon that would only harm one side. It would be a suicidal act for every nation in Europe.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Let me just grab that umbrella with the pointy end.

Georgi Markov's death is proof that anything anyone throws out there that sounds like a conspiracy theory from Russia can actually be 110% correct.

 

[tsubaki]

I live in Berlin. I cannot tell you how significant today's standing ovation for Chancellor Scholz in the Bundestag is.

Without wishing to be flippant, the German war machine has been rebooted after 77 years. The pointed helmets will be coming out of cold storage. German weaponry can now be sold to war zones. 2% of German GDP to be spent on the German Army every year is huge given the sheer size of the German economy. The Panzers are on the roll. I hate to say this, but Putin has opened Pandora's box.

Indeed. The potential for a pan-EU armed force is frightening; it could rival the US if given enough incentive (which he is giving them).

 

[DualityNSNO]

Nobody (least of all me) is suggesting that Chernobyl isn't a logical place to occupy.

What I am suggesting is that if Chernobyl was to be blown up, it would kill millions of people in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and greater Europe. It is not a tactical nuclear weapon that would only harm one side. It would be a suicidal act for every nation in Europe.

But what if they get, like, a really huge fan to blow in that direction?

 

[Mrk]

Seriously. It’s inconceivably naive to think you could just wait for a nice gust of wind in Russia’s direction and somehow control where the fallout goes.

Indeed. It also assumes the fallout lasts for a limited amount of time - it would last for eternity.

I really do worry about our education system sometimes.

 

[Old Blue 2]

I live in Berlin. I cannot tell you how significant today's standing ovation for Chancellor Scholz in the Bundestag is.

Without wishing to be flippant, the German war machine has been rebooted after 77 years. The pointed helmets will be coming out of cold storage. German weaponry can now be sold to war zones. 2% of German GDP to be spent on the German Army every year is huge given the sheer size of the German economy. The Panzers are on the roll. I hate to say this, but Putin has opened Pandora's box.

It was re-booted in the 1950s under NATO. And quite a few of those who fought in the second world war were taken back in, most notably Erich Hartmann and Johannes Steinhoff in the German airforce...