bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
Can even check out very pro Ukrainian sites like the Kiev independant which lists it at around just over 1,000 children returned to families - either inside the Ukraine or often into western Europe now.
Current Affairs Ukraine
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Can even check out very pro Ukrainian sites like the Kiev independant which lists it at around just over 1,000 children returned to families - either inside the Ukraine or often into western Europe now.
This argument needs an outbreak of peace.
And how many not returned?
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
Some of the plaza's in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia are extremely adequate.
Show us yer mall lad. Media clips or GTFOOne being built or the three already here
To be honest, I have been reading this for a couple of years now. Is this really the case or have they found alternative means to support their economy? Because it seems they have been riding it out for a long time.
It's the same as Ukraine were making huge gains - but every time I looked at a map, it was still Russia held huge parts of Ukraine.
I would like nothing more than Putin to get his @rse handed to him, but is that a real possibility or is it just wishful thinking?
You can’t fight a modern war for 3-4 years with all the financial investment needed and not see your economy tank.
Russias GDP before the war started was less than the UK and on a par with Italy. Without oil and gas they’d be stuffed already, that’s what’s kept them going.
They moved to a low-tech manufacturing policy on the back of going all in on arms production. So even the tanks, aircraft and other military vehicles that are being mass produced are mostly without modern tech. Likewise their civilian manufacturing has followed the same low-tech path.
They’ve muddled through up to now but if they keep the war going then their economy will break for sure.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
"Scenarios
Russia has reverted to what was known during the Cold War as “structural militarization”: All resources are devoted first and foremost to the military-industrial complex. Although the opportunity cost for the Soviet Union in trying to keep pace with the United States in the arms race was substantial, it is still likely to be dwarfed by what is now to come. It is worth noting that Hitler delayed proclaiming total war until 1943, because he was aware of the effects it would have on the overall economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin opted to proclaim total war in May 2024, calling on all officials to consider themselves mobilized for the war effort and to act as if they are on the frontline. Although the Russian economy has not yet transitioned to full war mobilization, it is very clearly moving in that direction.Highly likely: Economic “primitivization” leads to despair
As an expanding share of GDP is allocated to external and internal security, the economy will come under immense stress. Even if the notion of economic collapse should be used with care, there can be little doubt that Russia is facing a grim future – with or without a victory over Ukraine (and whatever that “victory” might entail).Underfunded health care and education will have severe negative impacts on public health, demography and the quality of human capital, exacerbating the damage already done by large numbers of young urban professionals either opting to leave the country or having been killed in Ukraine.
Already dilapidated infrastructure will reach breaking points, amplifying problems of flooding, collapsing bridges and sinkholes in urban roadways. Increasing technological obsolescence will finally cause previous predictions of a “primitivization” of the Russian economy to come to pass, as the relative share of the primary sector in the country’s GDP will expand. An economy that increasingly relies on digging, drilling and pumping will not have a bright future in a world undergoing a green transition.
Unlikely, but increasingly possible: State collapse
The short-term outlook hinges on how these deteriorating indicators will influence the political system. It is possible that a perfect storm emerges: The financial system goes into tailspin; continued Ukrainian attacks on the energy system cause blackouts even in Moscow; food shortages ripple through the provinces; and traumatized soldiers returning from the war create havoc in the streets. These risks combined produce mounting fears of a Russian state collapse. Although the likelihood is still below 50 percent, the odds are improving rapidly.Possible: The Kremlin hangs on
In contrast, it also remains possible that money printing and residual commodity exports will tide Moscow over for another few months. In this scenario, a continued erosion of sanctions will allow for imports via third countries, harsh repression will maintain order and intense infighting among the elites will stave off any plans of a coup.Yet, even if Russia extricates itself from its war against Ukraine without being defeated, even if it is allowed to refuse to pay war reparations, and even if the sanctions regime is lifted, the structural damage already done to the Russian economy is so severe that it will take a very long time to remedy. The specter of state collapse will not fade away."
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/a-somber-outlook-for-the-russian-economy/
bluestevon
Player Valuation: £80m
Yet they regularly use hypersonics, and just live field tested a system beyond anything the US has.
Not to mention the current drone technology using fibre optic guidance.
Not to mention AA systems and aircraft.
Tanks and BMPs have always been designed as low tech compared to the west, it's partly why they can churn out a stupendous amount in comparison, and looking at the performance of the Abrams and Bradley they blow up just the same but take ten times longer to build and train on
Low tech like the FAB guidance modules seems to work fine though.
Thanks. So realistically, how long do you think Ukraine would have to hold out before Russsia can no longer afford the war? And how long do Russia have to keep going before Ukraine/the west can no longer afford the war?
Mall.
I just want to ask about your first paragraph. Do you consider it ethical to field test a missile in a country you are at war with, if it is likely to kill civilians?
Most of the “hypersonic” missiles they use were from stock. Have you noticed how few are used during their regular missile attacks on civilian infrastructure? Oh and they’re not true hypersonic merely air-launched ballistic missiles - coz they slow down on re-entry in their terminal phase.
Russian drones come from China and Iran paid for with cheap oil and gas.
Russian AA systems are pyar turd, highlighted by the destruction of Russian oil refineries and ammo dumps by Ukraine’s LR drones.
I’ll give you the FAB systems deployed on glide bombs as a low tech option that works but its small consolation when you buy a washing machine in Moscow only to find you have to crank it by hand.
My guess is that it’ll end sometime next year one way or another.
Ukraine is on its knees but so is the Russian economy
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