Current Affairs Ukraine

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Economists think the Russian rouble could be in freefall​

“If panic occurs now, everything could collapse in a matter of days.”​

Jack Peat
by Jack Peat

2024-11-28 07:02

in Economics

Economists suspect a sudden collapse of the Russian rouble could be imminent as rising import costs and foreign exchange panic take their toll.

The Central Bank has succeeded in keeping the country’s currency relatively stable since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but recent falls suggest they might be running out of levers to control depreciating factors.

A fall of 8.5 per cent on Wednesday has been dismissed by Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, but as the Economist notes, “economic indicators are still taking their toll, and the economy is faltering”.

“The Russian economy is indeed on the brink of collapse and disintegration, despite all the talk about “resiliency.””

The Russian rouble has lost 35 per cent of its value since the start of August and is now trading at around 114.5 against the US dollar – the lowest level since March 2022 in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts from Russian-based BSC Financial Group said that the fall in the value of the rouble “resembled panic in an environment of uncertainty”.

The latest drop came just days after the US introduced sanctions against Gazprombank, Russia’s third-largest bank, which played a key role in processing payments for the remaining Russian natural gas exports to Europe.

Earlier rounds of sanctions had spared Russian gas because Europe’s economy was so dependent on it, but it is now far less reliant on Russian supplies. The Gazprombank sanctions raise the prospect of a further decrease in gas revenues and foreign currency for Moscow.

The rouble’s weakening threatens to erode Russians’ purchasing power by increasing the cost of imported goods and could further increase inflation.

The country is already contending with runaway inflation, which could climb to 8.5% this year – twice the Central Bank’s target.

The borscht index, an online cost of living tracker monitoring the prices of four ingredients needed to make the traditional soup, reports a 20% rise compared with 2023.
 

Economists think the Russian rouble could be in freefall​

“If panic occurs now, everything could collapse in a matter of days.”​

Jack Peat
by Jack Peat

2024-11-28 07:02

in Economics

Economists suspect a sudden collapse of the Russian rouble could be imminent as rising import costs and foreign exchange panic take their toll.

The Central Bank has succeeded in keeping the country’s currency relatively stable since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but recent falls suggest they might be running out of levers to control depreciating factors.

A fall of 8.5 per cent on Wednesday has been dismissed by Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, but as the Economist notes, “economic indicators are still taking their toll, and the economy is faltering”.

“The Russian economy is indeed on the brink of collapse and disintegration, despite all the talk about “resiliency.””

The Russian rouble has lost 35 per cent of its value since the start of August and is now trading at around 114.5 against the US dollar – the lowest level since March 2022 in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts from Russian-based BSC Financial Group said that the fall in the value of the rouble “resembled panic in an environment of uncertainty”.

The latest drop came just days after the US introduced sanctions against Gazprombank, Russia’s third-largest bank, which played a key role in processing payments for the remaining Russian natural gas exports to Europe.

Earlier rounds of sanctions had spared Russian gas because Europe’s economy was so dependent on it, but it is now far less reliant on Russian supplies. The Gazprombank sanctions raise the prospect of a further decrease in gas revenues and foreign currency for Moscow.

The rouble’s weakening threatens to erode Russians’ purchasing power by increasing the cost of imported goods and could further increase inflation.

The country is already contending with runaway inflation, which could climb to 8.5% this year – twice the Central Bank’s target.

The borscht index, an online cost of living tracker monitoring the prices of four ingredients needed to make the traditional soup, reports a 20% rise compared with 2023.

'think'
'could'
'might'
'suggests'

Not exactly a balls on the table piece like.
 

Russia says it will respond if US places missiles in Japan​

"We have repeatedly warned the Japanese side that if, as a result of such cooperation, American medium-range missiles appear on its territory, this will pose a real threat to the security of our country and we will be forced to take the necessary, adequate steps to strengthen our own defense capability,"
 

Putin threatens to target 'decision-making centres in Kyiv' with new Oreshnik IRBM missile​

President Vladimir Putin has boasted that Russia produces ten times more missiles than all of the Nato countries combined, and threatened an attack on decision-making centres in Kyiv with its new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) missile.

Appearing at the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) summit in Astana, Putin spoke about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile.

He said that Russia had been forced to deploy the new missile “in response to the enemy’s actions” – a reference to the use of US and UK manufactured missiles inside Russian territory – and that there were “no analogues to the Russian Oreshnik in the world”. He said western equivalents would not appear any time soon.

In the event of a massive use of the Oreshnik, the force of the strike will be comparable to a nuclear weapon, he said.

He said decision-making centres in Kyiv could become a target for the Oreshnik missile, and pointed out that Ukraine has launched multiple attacks against Moscow and St Petersburg. Ukraine carried out its biggest drone strike on Moscow earlier this month.
 
Story 1

Zelenskyy proposes reclaiming lost Ukrainian territory diplomatically​

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that Ukrainian territory under his control should be taken under the “Nato umbrella” to try to stop the “hot stage” of the war with Russia.

Speaking to Sky News, the Ukrainian president said that such a proposal has “never been considered” by Ukraine because it has never “officially” been offered.

Speaking via a translation, Zelenskyy said: “If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under Nato umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. That’s what we need to do fast, and then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically.


Story 2

Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser, warned that Putin coming out of Ukraine with “what feels like a win” would be very risky for the UK.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, he agreed with Richard Moore, the head of MI6, that it was currently the most dangerous moment in national security due to the “sheer number of simultaneous threats and crises” the UK is facing.

“Putin is now feeling increasingly reckless”, Ricketts said. “There used to be during the cold war and afterwards kind of unwritten rules of the road between the major powers to stop them from colliding together.

“Now Putin is being staggeringly reckless in the way he continues to expand what he sees as a war on the West now.

“He sees no boundaries and therefore the risk that Putin coming out with what feels like a win from the war in Ukraine would be very risky”, he added. “We will be faced with a larger bill later for trying to contain a rampant Russia.”


This is what defeat looks like.
 
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