Current Affairs Ukraine

[davek]

Nope I want an end to it, with protections for the Ukrainians that they won’t be invaded again in the short term.

What I want & what’ll happen are two different things though so there we go.

And that will be handed to them. They'll also have to compromise by accepting loss of territory.

We can debate all day the why's and wherefores of the causes of this war but now we're into the period of realpolitik, and that means hard realities like security for land loss.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Ukraine will fight to the end to avoid having their families terrorised by the abhorrent behaviours they have seen and suffered.

Special Rapporteur exposes torture in Russia as a tool for repression at home and aggression abroad​

29 October 2024

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www.ohchr.org

Russia to build concentration camps in occupied territories

Russia plans to build concentration camps in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the National Resistance Center (NRC) reported.

www.ukrainianworldcongress.org

Ukraine: Torture by Russian authorities amounts to crimes against humanity, says UN Commission of Inquiry

NEW YORK / VIENNA (30 October 2024) – Russian authorities have committed torture as a crime against humanity, says the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine in its latest report presented yesterday to the UN General Assembly.

ukraine.un.org

Also

Russian general accused of running torture camps dies in Ukraine

Russian General Pavel Klimenko, 47, led Russia's 5th Donetsk Motorized Rifle Brigade. Members of this brigade were accused of torturing pro-Kremlin U.S. blogger Russell Bentley to death in April 2024.

kyivindependent.com

 

[tsubaki]

Russia: use of western non-nuclear missiles by Ukraine against Russia could lead to nuclear response​

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said the use of western non-nuclear missiles by the Ukrainian armed forces against the Russian Federation under the new doctrine could lead to a nuclear response, after president Vladimir Putin approved an updated Russian nuclear doctrine on Tuesday.

Speaking at his regular daily press briefing, Tass reports Peskov said that the new nuclear doctrine should become the subject of deep analysis both in the country and abroad.

Peskov said that the Russian Federation considers the use of nuclear weapons to be an extreme measure, but that updating the doctrine was needed to bring the document into line with the current political situation.

Peskov said the “special operation” – Moscow’s preferred term for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – was being conducted in the context of a war unleashed by the west against the Russian Federation, and that the Russian military is closely monitoring the reports about plans to use longer-range US missiles in the Kursk region of Russia.

There is an odd bit of historical mirroring here with this claimed change of policy - during the Cold War it was pretty much acknowledged that in the event of a massive conventional attack by the Warsaw Pact on NATO that if the attack couldn’t be stopped conventionally that battlefield nuclear weapons would be used against the attack.

 

[davek]

There is an odd bit of historical mirroring here with this claimed change of policy - during the Cold War it was pretty much acknowledged that in the event of a massive conventional attack by the Warsaw Pact on NATO that if the attack couldn’t be stopped conventionally that battlefield nuclear weapons would be used against the attack.

That was always a nonsense and MAD overrides it all.

IMO it's all sabre rattling - but nonetheless dangerous for all that because of a possible 'Sarajevo' moment.

Russia would hit back elsewhere. Oil production in the Middle East could be halted and the West brought to their knees.

 

[Eidean]

And that will be handed to them. They'll also have to compromise by accepting loss of territory.

We can debate all day the why's and wherefores of the causes of this war but now we're into the period of realpolitik, and that means hard realities like security for land loss.

Absolutely, I’ve posted that in this thread several times before.

There’s not a chance Ukraine are allowed to join NATO so not sure what promise the Russians can make of no future incursion, that’ll make them feel safe.

 

[Toffeepot]

And that will be handed to them. They'll also have to compromise by accepting loss of territory.

We can debate all day the why's and wherefores of the causes of this war but now we're into the period of realpolitik, and that means hard realities like security for land loss.

I don't agree unless Ukraine agree. Giving up land simply because the aggressor wants it only emboldens other aggressors.

 

[davek]

Absolutely, I’ve posted that in this thread several times before.

There’s not a chance Ukraine are allowed to join NATO so not sure what promise the Russians can make of no future incursion, that’ll make them feel safe.

There's a basket of 'goods' the Russians will hope to secure: some if not all of these: territories already seized and a Washington recognition of that along with Crimea; western sanctions lifted; Ukraine's armed forces neutralised as a meaningful entity and threat to it. Maybe Trump can get Ukraine to wear all that if they can get Russia to accept Ukrainian reconstruction and eventual absorption into the EU.

The battle for Kursk will complicate all that, but maybe even there a land swap deal could be agreed.

Wars end and deals are done to make it happen. Ukraine isn't completely defeated but they're not in the driving seat on negotiations and will have to take a reasonable consolation of some sort.

 

[davek]

I don't agree unless Ukraine agree. Giving up land simply because the aggressor wants it only emboldens other aggressors.

Yes, that's very abstract though. The reality is that compromises will need to be made and Ukraine doesn't have much wriggle room if Washington under Trump is telling them to do a deal or they're on their own.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

'Europe and Canada Must Forget Trump and Form a Coalition of the Willing to Defend Ukraine'

Senior politicians, military leaders and experts send an open letter calling on Europe and Canada to join forces in defending Ukraine from Russian aggression

bylinetimes.com

 

[Toffeepot]

Yes, that's very abstract though. The reality is that compromises will need to be made and Ukraine doesn't have much wriggle room if Washington under Trump is telling them to do a deal or they're on their own.

That remains to be seen
Most military aid so far has come from the EU and the UK
Would no US support be a massive set back? Of course it would, but Russia are not having a good time maintaining this offensive either.

Unless Ukraine are happy with that solution of giving Russia the win, no ally should support it.

 

[davek]

That remains to be seen
Most military aid so far has come from the EU and the UK
Would no US support be a massive set back? Of course it would, but Russia are not having a good time maintaining this offensive either.

Unless Ukraine are happy with that solution of giving Russia the win, no ally should support it.

If Washington walks away from the Ukrainians Britain for one does too...unless you think Starmer wants to stand up to Trump.

 

[Toffeepot]

If Washington walks away from the Ukrainians Britain for one does too...unless you think Starmer wants to stand up to Trump.

I'd like to think he would
It would certainly test the resolve of Starmer and EU leaders that's for sure

 

[Tipp blue]

Absolutely, I’ve posted that in this thread several times before.

There’s not a chance Ukraine are allowed to join NATO so not sure what promise the Russians can make of no future incursion, that’ll make them feel safe.

Ukraine may not join NATO but security guarantees could be made by NATO countries. Russia will have to make some concessions too asking for Ukraine to be neutral and demilitarised would leave it easy pickings in the future, I'd say we will see land handed to Russia (officially recognised) this would be a buffer zone and the remainder of Ukraine come under some sort of NATO protection while not joining NATO.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Ukraine may not join NATO but security guarantees could be made by NATO countries. Russia will have to make some concessions too asking for Ukraine to be neutral and demilitarised would leave it easy pickings in the future, I'd say we will see land handed to Russia (officially recognised) this would be a buffer zone and the remainder of Ukraine come under some sort of NATO protection while not joining NATO.

You can understand Ukraine’s total distrust of anything Putin has to say having lived with his lies. Also given that Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom committed to respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its existing borders, even if Putin wants to ignore this we have a moral obligation, given that we were party to convincing them to give up their nuclear deterrent. Putin and his cronies and bots can try and spin this any way they want but Russia are the aggressor and need to be held to account.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

There is an odd bit of historical mirroring here with this claimed change of policy - during the Cold War it was pretty much acknowledged that in the event of a massive conventional attack by the Warsaw Pact on NATO that if the attack couldn’t be stopped conventionally that battlefield nuclear weapons would be used against the attack.

IIRC the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact also had a plan to advance into Western Europe preceded by a series of tactical nuclear strikes.

I think the plan involved Polish forces holding and engaging NATO on the German border whilst the main strike force would come from Czechoslovakia directly into France. They planned to capture Besancon on day 7 and Lyon on day 9 of hostilities breaking out.

Their thinking was that the Sov Union and WP could soak up and better survive tactical nuclear strikes than NATO nations. The plan would’ve turned eastern France into a nuclear wasteland.