Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

As if he would listen. Sad as it is some people need to face the hard facts. Putin is all in ( his very future depends on it) the West are dipping their toes in and out. No number of retweeted propaganda posts will change that.

Oh well, if he won't listen let the world just allow him to have whatever he wants, and do whatever he wants. If that's your answer history has taught you nothing.

 

[davids]

Oh well, if he won't listen let the world just allow him to have whatever he wants, and do whatever he wants. If that's your answer history has taught you nothing.

Putin can be beaten,all it'll take is full NATO investment, probably leading to a nuclear war, either confined to Eastern Europe or worldwide. History has taught us that the first country to use a thermonuclear device will win. You happy to risk the US sacrificing themselves for Europe?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Putin can be beaten,all it'll take is full NATO investment, probably leading to a nuclear war, either confined to Eastern Europe or worldwide. History has taught us that the first country to use a thermonuclear device will win. You happy to risk the US sacrificing themselves for Europe?

Remind me, how many nuclear wars have been fought?

I would be concerned if figures like Putin, Russia, the US, and Europe had indicated that they don’t care about their countries being vaporised and life as we know it being brought to an end, but I’m not seeing that. Putin and others like him need useful idiots and those who cower under a bully's empty threats.

 

[Xizor]

Thought experiment.

A man breaks into your house, and starts punching you in the face whilst claiming that he lives there now in your spare room and all his stuff is in it anyway. His family did use to live there but moved out decades ago under acrimonious circumstances. He's follows you round the whole house, punching you in the kitchen, bathroom wherever. You give him a few slaps back but it doesn't seem to deter him all that much.

A 'concerned' observer tells you that the fighting could all stop if you just stopped slapping back and let him have your spare room. You've no reason to trust him over this because 10 years ago he started squatting in your garage and you've not been in there since.

Is there a measure of fairness in that solution? If not, what should happen?

 

[PKwalnuts]

Thought experiment.

A man breaks into your house, and starts punching you in the face whilst claiming that he lives there now in your spare room and all his stuff is in it anyway. His family did use to live there but moved out decades ago under acrimonious circumstances. He's follows you round the whole house, punching you in the kitchen, bathroom wherever. You give him a few slaps back but it doesn't seem to deter him all that much.

A 'concerned' observer tells you that the fighting could all stop if you just stopped slapping back and let him have your spare room. You've no reason to trust him over this because 10 years ago he started squatting in your garage and you've not been in there since.

Is there a measure of fairness in that solution? If not, what should happen?

Burn the House down??

 

[davek]

Most people do. I was at wedding recently and I was asked about my partners family who live there (she couldn't attend as we have a young daughter). I'm no fan of Putin, far from it, but I was getting some some odd looks from people for merely explaining the situation for many people living there.

Lots of people who live there don't care, because as you say, both regimes are as corrupt as each other. People have to give back handers just to see a doctor and the mafia is very much present there.

Some people are actually pro Russia or indifferent. Obviously Ukraine is huge and this varies from one area to another. I'm also not saying this is a majority because I don't know if it is or isn't (we also know people who are fiercly pro Ukraine! ). But the situation is far from the black and white (the good vs evil) situation we are lead to believe.

However, one thing that strikes me is that if Russia does win, then for many people, especially the young, they will lose hope of a democratic (mostly pro EU) future. Personally I don't think that will happen anyway. But even with it's current faults a path to this future can obviously only happen with a Ukraine victory.

Thoughtful post - that wont go down well in here!

My concern isn't with regimes and whether they 'win' or not, it's with the ordinary everyday people who have their lives stolen from them by elites.

This war needs ending. Now.

 

[bicycleheader]

Thought experiment.

A man breaks into your house, and starts punching you in the face whilst claiming that he lives there now in your spare room and all his stuff is in it anyway. His family did use to live there but moved out decades ago under acrimonious circumstances. He's follows you round the whole house, punching you in the kitchen, bathroom wherever. You give him a few slaps back but it doesn't seem to deter him all that much.

A 'concerned' observer tells you that the fighting could all stop if you just stopped slapping back and let him have your spare room. You've no reason to trust him over this because 10 years ago he started squatting in your garage and you've not been in there since.

Is there a measure of fairness in that solution? If not, what should happen?

Unfortunately the discussion has collapsed in the thread to just insults and videos and gifs

Whilst I understand others feel the “dissenting” voices in the thread are trolling and don’t care about Ukraine, personally I have not seen anybody argue what you are suggesting with that analogy. Not since Kev and rammacca were booted out anyways

What has been said is that the reality is that Russia will take some territory whether we like it or not, and there’s a tipping point at which the population may prefer a deal even at the loss of territory. Whether we are at that tipping point and can in any way say what majority opinion is on this, I don’t know and haven’t seen any real discussion on it either way. However the possibility of this being the best of the realistic options right now just gets shut down.

The argument that Russia should just stop and get back over the border seems extremely moot to me. I don’t think anybody active in the thread disagrees with that. IMO. If majority Ukrainians want to continue the fight and there is some realistic way that they can push them back, then great, but I have not seen anybody suggest how that can actually be done. And if it can’t be done, you are back to one of the points that I struggle to disagree with….how many more people need to die on both sides if the treaty and whatever it would bring is the better option now.

I don’t think just repeating Russia bad is of any use to the discussion at this point. Politics and war is disgusting, and somewhere at the back of all this by various parties on both sides the cost in human lives is being weighed up against other priorities both short and long term. The discussion is there I think. I don’t click on any tweet chain or videos as there’s too much nonsense and propaganda and it’s depressing enough as it is.

 

[bicycleheader]

…I forgot about whoever it was that suggested that Ukraine are wrong to attack Russian troops who are on their territory. That was an utterly bizarre take. Don’t remember who it was

 

[Xizor]

And if it can’t be done, you are back to one of the points that I struggle to disagree with….how many more people need to die on both sides if the treaty and whatever it would bring is the better option now.

The way I see it, that's entirely Ukraine's decision to make. If they decide fighting on is worth a free future then they should be supported, and if the will or means to fight on are lost then their decision should be respected (and whatever freedoms they can retain should be protected somehow).

 

[davids]

Remind me, how many nuclear wars have been fought?

I would be concerned if figures like Putin, Russia, the US, and Europe had indicated that they don’t care about their countries being vaporised and life as we know it being brought to an end, but I’m not seeing that. Putin and others like him need useful idiots and those who cower under a bully's empty threats.

World War 2? Or did Hiroshima and Nagasaki not happen?
You seem to be supposing Putin is sane.

 

[davids]

The way I see it, that's entirely Ukraine's decision to make. If they decide fighting on is worth a free future then they should be supported, and if the will or means to fight on are lost then their decision should be respected (and whatever freedoms they can retain should be protected somehow).

Do they get a vote...oh wait.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Unfortunately the discussion has collapsed in the thread to just insults and videos and gifs

The thread has attracted a succession of troll/bot types which gets called out. That aside there is some great information and insight posted in here, especially from the lads with military backgrounds - but if you've been reading you'll have seen how they get dismissed.

Whilst I understand others feel the “dissenting” voices in the thread are trolling and don’t care about Ukraine, personally I have not seen anybody argue what you are suggesting with that analogy. Not since Kev and rammacca were booted out anyways

What has been said is that the reality is that Russia will take some territory whether we like it or not, and there’s a tipping point at which the population may prefer a deal even at the loss of territory. Whether we are at that tipping point and can in any way say what majority opinion is on this, I don’t know and haven’t seen any real discussion on it either way. However the possibility of this being the best of the realistic options right now just gets shut down.

The argument that Russia should just stop and get back over the border seems extremely moot to me. I don’t think anybody active in the thread disagrees with that. IMO. If majority Ukrainians want to continue the fight and there is some realistic way that they can push them back, then great, but I have not seen anybody suggest how that can actually be done. And if it can’t be done, you are back to one of the points that I struggle to disagree with….how many more people need to die on both sides if the treaty and whatever it would bring is the better option now.

I don’t think just repeating Russia bad is of any use to the discussion at this point. Politics and war is disgusting, and somewhere at the back of all this by various parties on both sides the cost in human lives is being weighed up against other priorities both short and long term. The discussion is there I think. I don’t click on any tweet chain or videos as there’s too much nonsense and propaganda and it’s depressing enough as it is.

I agree that there's a valid argument around the complex reality of the situation. The idea that Russia will take some territory, regardless of how we feel about it, is something that’s been suggested by various analysts and commentators, and I’m not dismissing that possibility. But I think the key issue here is not just the territorial reality but the broader implications of what such a shift in borders represents, both in terms of Ukraine’s sovereignty and the precedent it sets for international law, and the message this sends to both Putin and China. Allowing an aggressor to retain territory taken by force sends a dangerous message globally, and that’s not a price that Ukraine is willing to accept, nor the Western leaders, and I tend to agree with them. The “realistic” option seen by some is a step toward a much wider conflict for me.

On the question of a peace deal, I agree that it’s worth considering, provided it’s a reasonable option. However, we need to be cautious about assuming that the population of Ukraine would simply accept territorial concessions without significant consequences. The Ukrainian people have been unequivocal in their determination to defend their land, and while war is undoubtedly hell, so is living under occupation. Any peace deal must recognise their right to self-determination, and that’s something we cannot overlook. Russian-occupied territories would likely face militant insurgency and resistance, as it’s almost certain that no deal would satisfy all Ukrainians. After all, you’re talking about 900,000 active, battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers, with an additional 1.2 million in reserves. How would Putin manage that?

As for the question of how to push Russia back, no-one on here is suggesting that there’s an easy solution. But the focus needs to remain on supporting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. To say there’s no way to push Russia back doesn’t mean we should abandon the idea of doing so, it’s more about providing the right support, both without limiting military support as well as diplomatic.

I agree that the constant “Russia bad” rhetoric doesn’t help as it is certainly not all Russians, but sometimes the moral clarity is needed. We have to recognise that the human cost of this war isn’t just about the immediate loss of life, it’s about ensuring that future conflicts don’t follow the same path of impunity. Finding a solution is complex, yes, but we can’t throw in the towel just because the path is difficult. If a diplomatic solution can be reached without compromising Ukrainian sovereignty, that’s what everyone should be striving for - but not at the expense of Ukraine’s right to exist as a free, independent nation.

I get why the propaganda and constant barrage of depressing news make it hard to stay engaged. But I don't believe we should let the exhaustion of this conflict numb us to the stakes involved. The loss of life on both sides is tragic, but ultimately, the question is whether we want a world where might makes right, or one where the international community stands up for the principles of sovereignty, justice, and self-determination. That’s what’s truly at risk here.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

World War 2? Or did Hiroshima and Nagasaki not happen?
You seem to be supposing Putin is sane.

World War II was not a nuclear war, there was no exchange of nuclear weapons between the warring sides. The weapon itself, developed by one side, was so horrific that it forced Japan’s surrender, and it has not been used since. Do you think Putin truly cares about Russia, about cities like St Petersburg, Moscow, and the rest? How about his family, his children, his grandchildren, and his inner circle? His actions, such as his extreme paranoia about sitting near people who might infect him with COVID or potentially poison him, suggest a man deeply committed to staying alive. Even if that means acting in ways that seem bizarre, it demonstrates an intense personal desire to preserve his own life and position of power. I'd respectfully suggest that you are exactly the type of person he needs to continue what he is doing.

 

[davids]

World War II was not a nuclear war, there was no exchange of nuclear weapons between the warring sides. The weapon itself, developed by one side, was so horrific that it forced Japan’s surrender, and it has not been used since. Do you think Putin truly cares about Russia, about cities like St Petersburg, Moscow, and the rest? How about his family, his children, his grandchildren, and his inner circle? His actions, such as his extreme paranoia about sitting near people who might infect him with COVID or potentially poison him, suggest a man deeply committed to staying alive. Even if that means acting in ways that seem bizarre, it demonstrates an intense personal desire to preserve his own life and position of power. I'd respectfully suggest that you are exactly the type of person he needs to continue what he is doing.

COVID didn't threaten Putin's power. A loss of face in this war definitely would. Don't you think Putin is insane?.I think he's the type who'd like to take everybody with him...a bit like Hitler who you constantly compare him (quite rightly ) with. Oh and maybe ask some Japanese if WW2 was a nuclear war or not.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

COVID didn't threaten Putin's power. A loss of face in this war definitely would. Don't you think Putin is insane?.I think he's the type who'd like to take everybody with him...a bit like Hitler who you constantly compare him (quite rightly ) with. Oh and maybe ask some Japanese if WW2 was a nuclear war or not.

I think it’s clear that Putin’s obsessive fear of illness or poisoning shows just how much he values his life and power. But I am sure that he’s not someone willing to go down without a fight, but his biggest fear of that is internal. That said, I’d argue that the dynamics of war, and especially nuclear war, are different today than they were in World War II, precisely because the threat of mutually assured destruction now acts as a deterrent, even for someone like Putin.

Regarding World War II, I wouldn't downplay the immense suffering caused by the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. While it’s true that the war did not involve a nuclear attack against "one" of the combatants, the use of nuclear weapons on Japan was a game-changing moment that reshaped global diplomacy. It’s an important distinction, because of the horror of that chapter in history and the lasting impact it had upon the world in understanding that mutually assured destruction is a very real threat..