Current Affairs Ukraine

[mightymoyes]

Generalfeldmarschall Damo von Rommel has rejected anonymity and declared himself.

Also, news breaking...

Germany issues arrest warrant for diver over Nord Stream blasts, say reports

Investigators said to believe man was one of team that planted explosives on pipelines in September 2022

www.theguardian.com

no surprise Ukraine did it, with whos assistance is the question.

 

[dublinbluenose]

What solid evidence is there for that happening now?

Isn't the logistics for diverting troops dug in where they are to be shuffled over and up to the Kursk Oblast very complicated and dangerous? I doubt we'll see units pulled away from the front line in Donbas. It's more likely that reinforcements due for the front line will be diverted to Kursk and those already dug into trenches will remain there, which could demoralise a few Russian troops, I suppose, but not force the great disruption talked about and hoped for.

 

[Rita_Poon]

They’re mostly rocking up in Kursk in Soft top Kamaz trucks and scooby doo vans.

Won’t last 5minutes against an M39 strike or even a well placed ambush with small arms fire.

I saw yesterday however that they deployed a couple of turtle tanks. Didn’t end well either. Looks like the Ukes have all the MSR’s nailed down and are picking off the Russians before they can form up.

If putin's mask is removed and it's old man Carswell, (or someone cold war era) then this three day operation will suddenly make more sense.

 

[Damo_1878]

What Lord Protector Oliver @davek Cromwell, does not appreciate, is that Russia has been using air defence missiles as artillery. The use of air defence systems in this conflict has been very atypical

The Russian air defence is stretched, consequentially

They're doing exactly as expected, interdicting Russian logistics and attacking aircraft on the ground with apparent success

This has disproportionate effects to aid the Ukrainians as a drone costs much less than a strike aircraft. If they're also attacking them with GMLRs and ballistic missiles then the Ukrainians are adding mass to their attacks as well

So contrary to what our resident military strategy expert "@davek" thinks this is actually achieving it's apparent aims. It's causing disproportionate damage on the Russian military and it's combat aircraft. On the ground. This will then have wider impacts on the overall conflict

 

[Eidean]

What Lord Protector Oliver @davek Cromwell, does not appreciate, is that Russia has been using air defence missiles as artillery. The use of air defence systems in this conflict has been very atypical

The Russian air defence is stretched, consequentially

They're doing exactly as expected, interdicting Russian logistics and attacking aircraft on the ground with apparent success

This has disproportionate effects to aid the Ukrainians as a drone costs much less than a strike aircraft. If they're also attacking them with GMLRs and ballistic missiles then the Ukrainians are adding mass to their attacks as well

So contrary to what our resident military strategy expert "@davek" thinks this is actually achieving it's apparent aims. It's causing disproportionate damage on the Russian military and it's combat aircraft. On the ground. This will then have wider impacts on the overall conflict

Almost like it was an obvious UA intention. Ha.

 

[Damo_1878]

Almost like it was an obvious UA intention. Ha.

Highly recommend watching the YouTube channel "Perun". A military economist.

He doesn't do OSINT, and is basically waiting a week or more to see what is going on before commenting but he's covered some of the bigger picture points throughout the war. Because there is so much noise and claims it's hard to tell what is going on.

Perun's lectures aren't for the feint hearted as they're on for about an hour a week. But they're well researched and cover big picture economic/military points.

Nobody really envisaged this Ukrainian offensive into Russia. But if what I read is correct, it seems to be achieving it's aims. Cause as much disproportionate damage inside Russia to it's long range strike and cut logistics as much as possible.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I was also reading about already Ukraine taking some of the 'relative' high ground in the region, which will cause the Russians even more difficulties.

They're rapidly attempting to build solid defences behind their lines, with the likely intention of bogging the UA down at some point if it gets that far.

The only other issue, however, is if Ukraine attempt to push too far, too quickly, and it allows the competent Russians units (as @Eidean referred to) to isolate them.

A conventional defence against the advanced units, in open ground, could be something that the Ukrainians may struggle with, but it boils down to competence.

That’s why I think they’ll fall back to more defendable ground.

Seen very little from RuAF aviation so far - be interesting to see what if any impact they will have.

I think the main issue here is at the Russian C2 level. Putin declared the Kursk situation as a KTO (counter-terrorism op). That effectively means the Rosgvardiya should be running the show along with support from FSB and MOD. However I don’t see this as a counter-terror op (like Chechnya was) This is full-scale combined arms manoeuvre warfare and that’s something the Rosgvardiya know very little about. So it’ll be interesting to see how the Russian KTO develops.

​

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Eidean]

Highly recommend watching the YouTube channel "Perun". A military economist.

He doesn't do OSINT, and is basically waiting a week or more to see what is going on before commenting but he's covered some of the bigger picture points throughout the war. Because there is so much noise and claims it's hard to tell what is going on.

Perun's lectures aren't for the feint hearted as they're on for about an hour a week. But they're well researched and cover big picture economic/military points.

Nobody really envisaged this Ukrainian offensive into Russia. But if what I read is correct, it seems to be achieving it's aims. Cause as much disproportionate damage inside Russia to it's long range strike and cut logistics as much as possible.

I’ll give him a watch, thank you.

Kings & Generals is a History Channel but very well researched videos & an easy watch. They do some very specific areas & then shorter “updates”

 

[supertoffee98]

I expect Ukraine to conduct a phased withdrawal from the Kursk area over the next few weeks. Ukraine’s goal is to get Crimea. They will be hoping the Russians move troops from the South of Ukraine to reinforce the Kursk area and their border.

It’s a bold strategy from Ukraine and shows them moving from the defensive to taking the initiative.

The interesting point will be what happens in six months time with the American leadership contest. Will Trump/Harris still support Ukraine?

Does it really show initiative?? What it shows to me is that weapons supplied by the US and UK ostensibly to protect Ukraine and its infrastructure are now being used to claim territory that isn't theirs and has no right to be theirs. More weapons, more taking land, none of this will achieve peace.

Zelensky should be held to account for these actions just as Putin should be for his.

 

[Eidean]

Does it really show initiative?? What it shows to me is that weapons supplied by the US and UK ostensibly to protect Ukraine and its infrastructure are now being used to claim territory that isn't theirs and has no right to be theirs. More weapons, more taking land, none of this will achieve peace.

Zelensky should be held to account for these actions just as Putin should be for his.

There will be peace if Russia simply withdraws from Ukraine. There is no intention whatsoever by Ukraine (Zelenskyy already confirmed) to “claim territory” for long term, unlike Russia.

Ukraine have every right to open up a new front into Russia if they have the capacity, it was ridiculous that there was a restriction on them in the first place

 

[PhilM]

Does it really show initiative?? What it shows to me is that weapons supplied by the US and UK ostensibly to protect Ukraine and its infrastructure are now being used to claim territory that isn't theirs and has no right to be theirs. More weapons, more taking land, none of this will achieve peace.

I'll come to this part, in a bit. You mention Ukraine being protected, but by this do you mean the land they currently possess, or their pre-invasion territory?

This is a war that Russia instigated; this is a war where they've shown a downright disregard for international law, civilian casualties and the casualties of their own.

If this incursion into Kursk helps illicit a situation where Ukraine can retain its territory, either militarily or through negotiation, and inhibit Russia, then it's fair to do.

Creating a situation where Ukraine can only be defensive is not viable, because Russia continue to be aggressors, and haven't been open to fair negotiation.

In terms of initiative, I think it does because in over two-years they have grown to be able to effectively push into Russia using combined operations.

From afar, maybe this can partially be contributed to a new cadre of western trained officers and NCOs filtering into their ranks and influencing their mindset.

Even some Russians have commented on 'British' tactics being shown in the past week. "The 'second-best' army in the world, is now the second best in Russia".

 

[supertoffee98]

On the right side of history once again... When will people listen?

 

[Eidean]

On the right side of history once again... When will people listen?

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There wouldn’t be an Ukraine left if it wasn’t for arming them. Corbyn quite clearly is a lovely fella but he leaves in a dreamworld at times.

 

[supertoffee98]

There will be peace if Russia simply withdraws from Ukraine. There is no intention whatsoever by Ukraine (Zelenskyy already confirmed) to “claim territory” for long term, unlike Russia.

Ukraine have every right to open up a new front into Russia if they have the capacity, it was ridiculous that there was a restriction on them in the first place

Until a few days ago there was no intention publicly that Ukraine would ever move into Russian territory.

Even if Zelensky really believes the Russian military is that thin they'd have to retreat it does not give him the right to emulate what Russia is doing even if it's on a smaller scale. There are real people, Russian and Ukrainian, who live in these areas on the borders that are suffering immensely already.