Current Affairs Ukraine

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Del-boy said:
I expect Ukraine to conduct a phased withdrawal from the Kursk area over the next few weeks. Ukraine’s goal is to get Crimea. They will be hoping the Russians move troops from the South of Ukraine to reinforce the Kursk area and their border.

It’s a bold strategy from Ukraine and shows them moving from the defensive to taking the initiative.

The interesting point will be what happens in six months time with the American leadership contest. Will Trump/Harris still support Ukraine?
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Harris will, Trump will sell them down the river.
 
Eidean said:
You’re absolutely correct that it’s a narrative change, locals already on the ground on TV complaining about the state & their lack of protection.
We’re not sure what the mid-long term goals are, they’re correctly kept extremely quiet. There can be several wins for them though even if they were to tactical withdraw.
Like I said before, gives them more range further into Russia to cause damage to military infrastructure & supply lines (think they’ve already sit several bases with F-16s). Short term they’ll also drag other Russian forces away from areas (Kharkiv possibly) which then may allow & counter attack in that area (Ukraine desperately need it)

If there’s a long term goal for them (I doubt it but I’ve no idea) then the city of Kursk could give the Russians a huge headache in Belograd.
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What solid evidence is there for that happening now?

Isn't the logistics for diverting troops dug in where they are to be shuffled over and up to the Kursk Oblast very complicated and dangerous? I doubt we'll see units pulled away from the front line in Donbas. It's more likely that reinforcements due for the front line will be diverted to Kursk and those already dug into trenches will remain there, which could demoralise a few Russian troops, I suppose, but not force the great disruption talked about and hoped for.
 
davek said:
I doubt we'll see units pulled away from the front line in Donbas. It's more likely that reinforcements due for the front line will be diverted to Kursk and those already dug into trenches will remain there, which could demoralise a few Russian troops, I suppose, but not force the great disruption talked about and hoped for.
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What a difference an hour makes.

davek said:
I'm not a military expert and never claim to have been
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davek said:
What solid evidence is there for that happening now?

Isn't the logistics for diverting troops dug in where they are to be shuffled over and up to the Kursk Oblast very complicated and dangerous? I doubt we'll see units pulled away from the front line in Donbas. It's more likely that reinforcements due for the front line will be diverted to Kursk and those already dug into trenches will remain there, which could demoralise a few Russian troops, I suppose, but not force the great disruption talked about and hoped for.
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Geolocations have 155th Marines in Kursk, they’ve been in Kharkiv. The map marking images I’ve seen has atleast 2 Company’s from a Marine division fighfing UAs 22 Mechanised Brigade aswell.

The 400+ “reinforcements” for the front line they originally had were spanked in a convoy.
 
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Bedfordblue said:
Lithuania reporting they’re bringing more Orcs down from Kalingrad to reinforce Kursk
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Most of the Nato facing areas are already depleted of troops and equipment

They've been trying to get equipment from Belarus

I think the Kursk operation is about damaging Russian logistics down to Khakiv and south.

It's in an area that unlike the south isn't fortified or mined to the same extent. It therefore allows manoeuvre warfare which suits the Ukrainians as they have the advantages in it

I don't think this a permanent occupation. I do think it may be replicated in other areas now so the Russians have a strategic issue in how do they reenforce all areas? That is the strategy. To put the Russians off balance
 
PhilM said:
Without modern APCs or IFVs, these brigades that have been flooded with conscripts or volunteers from the East are going to face a tough task to stop the advance.
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Yep 100%. The 22nd MRR who were one of the units in that convoy, apparently were equipped with BMP3s so they’re probably abit concerned moving armour.

There’ll be plenty of Volunteer forces but the fact they’ve pulled the 200th Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade from Bakhmut which shows how concerned they are. They’re the ones who had huge success against UA.
 
PhilM said:
Without modern APCs or IFVs, these brigades that have been flooded with conscripts or volunteers from the East are going to face a tough task to stop the advance.
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They’re mostly rocking up in Kursk in Soft top Kamaz trucks and scooby doo vans.

Won’t last 5minutes against an M39 strike or even a well placed ambush with small arms fire.

I saw yesterday however that they deployed a couple of turtle tanks. Didn’t end well either. Looks like the Ukes have all the MSR’s nailed down and are picking off the Russians before they can form up.
 
If they can open a new frontline, and they have the equipment and personnel to sustain that, without losing ground in Donetsk, than all power to them. That's a massive bargaining chip for future peacetalks and an incredible victory. Maybe that's the goal, with a (possible) Trump presidency on the cards.

But if they retreat, the russians will just mine the entire front line. They'll have lost some good men and some good equipment with nothing to show for it.
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
They’re mostly rocking up in Kursk in Soft top Kamaz trucks and scooby doo vans.

Won’t last 5minutes against an M39 strike or even a well placed ambush with small arms fire.

I saw yesterday however that they deployed a couple of turtle tanks. Didn’t end well either. Looks like the Ukes have all the MSR’s nailed down and are picking off the Russians before they can form up.
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I was also reading about already Ukraine taking some of the 'relative' high ground in the region, which will cause the Russians even more difficulties.

They're rapidly attempting to build solid defences behind their lines, with the likely intention of bogging the UA down at some point if it gets that far.

The only other issue, however, is if Ukraine attempt to push too far, too quickly, and it allows the competent Russians units (as @Eidean referred to) to isolate them.

A conventional defence against the advanced units, in open ground, could be something that the Ukrainians may struggle with, but it boils down to competence.
 
PhilM said:
I was also reading about already Ukraine taking some of the 'relative' high ground in the region, which will cause the Russians even more difficulties.

They're rapidly attempting to build solid defences behind their lines, with the likely intention of bogging the UA down at some point if it gets that far.

The only other issue, however, is if Ukraine attempt to push too far, too quickly, and it allows the competent Russians units (as @Eidean referred to) to isolate them.

A conventional defence against the advanced units, in open ground, could be something that the Ukrainians may struggle with, but it boils down to competence.
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According to Russian telegram, UA are starting to use Sudzha the key logistical area so they’ve sorted that potential issue of overstretching if that’s true.

As you mentioned before mate, looks like they’re massively struggling with UA mobility. Russian units getting flanked in a rapid moving front shows that area is abit of a cluster at the minute. (More so from a Russian defensive position, they SHOULD sort that out soon enough if they can slow Ukraine’s push)
 
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