Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Balanced articles are hard to distinguish as both sides are spinning in their favour, and trying to use that to affect their own and their enemy's morale and support.

The Kursk offensive has been a win for Ukraine. No doubt that they will return to more defensive positions as Russia reacts either within the Kursk oblast or even return to their own border. If they do this with minimal losses and hit some strategic targets and suck in Russian resources then it probably is a long term win too. If they start losing men and equipment then probably not. That Russia went past the 2014 defensive lines in Donbass yesterday has hardly been commented on - if that leads to capitulation by Ukraine then it certainly becomes a catastrophic gamble to go north.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive was never going to take Crimea or the land bridge- the fact that they pushed Russia to the east side of the Dniper was the most significant part of the war. For Russia to go west will be extremely costly and unless Ukraine falls over I do not see it happening - it's the same going east for Ukraine.

As ever with this war we will see what we shall see. The true outcome of this offensive will be understood only once the dust has settled.

Now that’s what a balanced view looks like.

Bravo x

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Interesting assessment and insight from ISW of the current situation regarding Kursk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray himself as an effective and knowledgeable manager of the situation along the Ukrainian-Russian border and to shift responsibility for ongoing challenges in responding to the Ukrainian incursion in the area to other Russian military and...

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Damo_1878]

It’s another “ Battle Of The Bulge “ scenario. Then the Germans had a plan even if it failed. I can’t see what the Ukrainians plan is, unless it’s to relieve pressure on other salients.

They're not intending to march on Moscow it appears their intent is to cut in half a railway line that runs through the Kursk region which impacts Russian logistics in Khakiv and down to Donetsk region

Plus they appear intent on damaging Russian aircraft on the ground etc

Think there is a strategy. The person in charge of the operation used element of surprise which is his trademark

I don't think this is going to be a "meat grind" operation Russian style. It's manoeuvre warfare which suits the Ukrainians

 

[Damo_1878]

I dont need them - and in any case we cant see it because of censorship, remember.

The balanced analysis of this incursion is that it's a desperate attempt to try and slow down the rate of advance Russia has had in The Donbas and is a means of getting a more favourable settlement in a peace deal, which will inevitably be forced on the Ukrainians.

The incursion into Russia will, of course, be reversed in the coming weeks, so the whole thing is little more than the last throes of a Ukrainian offensive that never got off the ground two summers ago.

All but the deluded realise that's what's happening.

I didn't know you took an interest in military strategy @davek?

It's all about disrupting Russian logistics which has been achieved it appears

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[efcste97]

Also worth remembering Ukraine has been losing in the east because of those months of military aid delays Republicans caused. Ukraine lost Avdiivka because of that.

Republicans are Russian assets

 

[dublinbluenose]

Ukraine is shifting the boarder I think. It's easier to defend a straight line.

 

[davek]

Balanced articles are hard to distinguish as both sides are spinning in their favour, and trying to use that to affect their own and their enemy's morale and support.

The Kursk offensive has been a win for Ukraine. No doubt that they will return to more defensive positions as Russia reacts either within the Kursk oblast or even return to their own border. If they do this with minimal losses and hit some strategic targets and suck in Russian resources then it probably is a long term win too. If they start losing men and equipment then probably not. That Russia went past the 2014 defensive lines in Donbass yesterday has hardly been commented on - if that leads to capitulation by Ukraine then it certainly becomes a catastrophic gamble to go north.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive was never going to take Crimea or the land bridge- the fact that they pushed Russia to the east side of the Dniper was the most significant part of the war. For Russia to go west will be extremely costly and unless Ukraine falls over I do not see it happening - it's the same going east for Ukraine.

As ever with this war we will see what we shall see. The true outcome of this offensive will be understood only once the dust has settled.

Good post mate.

What all sides - and I include the western powers in that - have to come to terms with is that stalemate is not an option. It's a calamity for the Russians and Ukrainians both, but the stalemate the West was apparently happy to see carry on is not achieving anything. The Russians have taken the hit to their economy and restructured.

Why carry on the bloodshed? There's no advantage to be had.

The territorial lines are where they are - pretty much with people who wish to be Ukrainian and those who wish to be Russian contained in their respective zones. A peace deal that stops the shelling around the border areas of those zones can build a base for a lasting peace.

All wars end and this will be no different. Make it this year and stop even more people losing their lives and limbs and livelihoods.

 

[davek]

I didn't know you took an interest in military strategy @davek?

It's all about disrupting Russian logistics which has been achieved it appears

I dont.

I do take an interest in peace though. Especially when the military solution is nowhere in sight and never likely to be so.

 

[Damo_1878]

I dont.

I do take an interest in peace though. Especially when the military solution is nowhere in sight and never likely to be so.

Russia and Putin are the invaders

 

[Damo_1878]

Good post mate.

What all sides - and I include the western powers in that - have to come to terms with is that stalemate is not an option. It's a calamity for the Russians and Ukrainians both, but the stalemate the West was apparently happy to see carry on is not achieving anything. The Russians have taken the hit to their economy and restructured.

Why carry on the bloodshed? There's no advantage to be had.

The territorial lines are where they are - pretty much with people who wish to be Ukrainian and those who wish to be Russian contained in their respective zones. A peace deal that stops the shelling around the border areas of those zones can build a base for a lasting peace.

All wars end and this will be no different. Make it this year and stop even more people losing their lives and limbs and livelihoods.

This is utter nonsense Dave.

They have labour shortages

Short term military spending may have had a short term boost on GDP but their economy is in a right state and will suffer for years for it

Loading…

www.reuters.com

It's a well known fact in military economics when you go above 4.5-5.5% GDP military spending in the long term you actually weaken the military because overall GDP growth suffers and the economy doesn't diversify.

The example is North Korea versus South Korea and where they started from relative to military power today.

South Korea will win a war as North Korea is built for short term gain but doesn't have the logistics to win in the long term. Hence their preoccupation with nukes

So Dave, you're talking rubbish.

 

[efcste97]

 

[davek]

This is utter nonsense Dave.

They have labour shortages

Short term military spending may have had a short term boost on GDP but their economy is in a right state and will suffer for years for it

Loading…

www.reuters.com

It's a well known fact in military economics when you go above 4.5-5.5% GDP military spending in the long term you actually weaken the military because overall GDP growth suffers and the economy doesn't diversify.

The example is North Korea versus South Korea and where they started from relative to military power today.

South Korea will win a war as North Korea is built for short term gain but doesn't have the logistics to win in the long term. Hence their preoccupation with nukes

So Dave, you're talking rubbish.

The Russians faced all its assets abroad frozen, its economy cut off from the global financial system, and the all important energy exports to western Europe clamped.

It was a huge trauma to face up to but they have adapted very well. New markets have been forged in the east and the global south. Russia's economic growth was at 5.4% in Q1 of 2024, slowing to 4% in Q2.

Compare that with the UK's meagre growth or EU big nations.

 

[davek]

Apart from the childish insults he uses I cant hear anything to contradict there.

This war could have been avoided, and the escalation is a threat to us all.

On those two major statements he's 100% correct.

 

[Chewbacca]

Also worth remembering Ukraine has been losing in the east because of those months of military aid delays Republicans caused. Ukraine lost Avdiivka because of that.

Republicans are Russian assets

Apart from the childish insults he uses I cant hear anything to contradict there.

This war could have been avoided, and the escalation is a threat to us all.

On those two major statements he's 100% correct.

He would have avoided nothing, he just would have told the Russian aggressors that Ukraine was getting no support. Freedom to rape and pillage.