There'll definitely be a shift when this comes in to play, however equally there'll be the application of AI in terms of defensive systems. My point is... who knows.Excellent post Phil. However we should be mindful given Russia’s deployment of tactical, battlefield anti-drone EW systems has been poor, almost knee-jerk in its approach, other serious players such as China are watching this conflict closely and honing their future military drone focused strategy accordingly.
Personally I think the advent and maturity of AI will have a massive effect on future UAV, UGV and USV based warfare with machine learning drone swarms being directed to attack targets on the battlefield, learning and adapting to enemy tactics in real time.
As with all wars this one will kick start a new generation of tech advancement and one that is dual- use (both civilian and military). But at the end of the day it still requires troops on the ground supported by tanks and armoured fighting vehicles to take and hold ground, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
With one advancement in technology, you get an adaptation in terms of the defensive weaponry and tactics, and that'll always be the case.
@tsubaki referenced the belief that bombers would always get through, however, as a result of that, we introduced 'Chain Home', RF direction finding et al.
The Germans introduced their own, we designed countermeasures... bombers became quicker and flew higher... long range fighters were introduced... jets...
After the Gulf War, the philosophy of complete air supremity was justifiably bounded around, but militaries and conflicts have adapted*. We could talk about tanks.
The problem we have is that strategists, planners, governments and what not often study and plan for a war that has already past, rather than the upcoming war.
As you said, drones will play a hugely significant part (I ain't suggesting anything otherwise), nevertheless it still boots on the ground that win wars.
How you best use them is what makes the difference. For me, the introduction of compact energy-weapons, with a suitable energy source, will be a massive counter.
*They still play a hugely effective part, by the way.