Current Affairs Ukraine

[Drico]

And how does this right-wing German politician - whose party oversaw the running down of the German armed forces over the last two decades - envisage this happening? This fella is an opportunist at best and a war-monger at worst. People living in Germany have a rather dim view of this kind of nonsense because it will be us in the firing line in the worst scenario.

I really do wonder if we're heading for yet another Russia v Germany world war.

 

[Yarrgh]

And how does this right-wing German politician - whose party oversaw the running down of the German armed forces over the last two decades - envisage this happening? This fella is an opportunist at best and a war-monger at worst. People living in Germany have a rather dim view of this kind of nonsense because it will be us in the firing line in the worst scenario.

I really do wonder if we're heading for yet another Russia v Germany world war.

I hope not.

Which side would the UK be on in that?!?

 

[Jokerdan]

This so called 'special military operation' will put Russia back decades economically, militarily and population-wise - you can't lose hundreds of thousands of young(ish) men and not expect a major impact on the growth of future generations albeit, admittedly, most are from deprived ethnic regions.

Whilst Putin currently has a groundswell of support - real or contrived - much of it comes from the 'old guard' who lived through the Patriotic War and extreme nationalists. The younger, more enlightened generations and those who live in those Russian republics and who just live to survive in sub-third world conditions will, eventually, rise up and overturn the existing order and, ultimately, lead to the disintegration of 'modern day' Russia.

Russia's major threat is nuclear but that leads only to mutually assured destruction (MAD) and we have to hope and pray that there are still enough sane people in Russia's hierarchy to avoid such a catastrophe happening.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

And how does this right-wing German politician - whose party oversaw the running down of the German armed forces over the last two decades - envisage this happening? This fella is an opportunist at best and a war-monger at worst. People living in Germany have a rather dim view of this kind of nonsense because it will be us in the firing line in the worst scenario.

I really do wonder if we're heading for yet another Russia v Germany world war.

In the current geopolitical landscape, it seems clear that Europe stands at a critical juncture where it must assume greater responsibility for its well-being.

The emergence of radical ideologies such as the MAGA lunatics is going to pose a long-term challenge with an ideology that will no doubt find resonance within a certain cohort way beyond Trump. This is a fact all sides in Europe need to accept and address.

Within the EU, Germany, positioned as a senior party, finds itself in a pivotal role as a key player in safeguarding the continent. It can be reasonably argued that the need for proactive measures and strategic initiatives to ensure Europe's protection is more pressing than ever, so Germany would appear to have a decision to make.

It is also worth noting that the threat is not confined to external forces alone. The rise of right-wing extremists is a pervasive concern, with these ideological outliers surfacing across Europe, and who knows, the next potential threat may materialise unpredictably, possibly even from within the EU itself, as let’s be honest, there are swings to the right across the board. And as you highlight, let’s not forget Putin. If he does not get defeated in Ukraine his imperialistic desires won't disappear. Even if Putin and his ilk did not favour a direct confrontation with NATO, estibilising europe, promoting right wing autocrats would most likely remain a key tactic.

In this dynamic landscape it deos feel imperative for Europe to fortify its defences. As the continent faces the ongoing complexities of MAGA-like ideologies and the unpredictable rise of right-wing extremism, fostering unity and resilience within the EU is crucial for safeguarding Europe's collective well-being, and Germany has worked to position itself as a/the leader. Hopefully the UK steps up to the plate too.

 

[Drico]

Yes, the EU needs to have its own army. I have been saying that for years. As regards Ukraine, my position is simple. If we all want to defend Ukraine like we say we do, give Ukraine immediate NATO membership. Then we can all accept a shared burden of defending Ukraine. Right now, my impression is that only Germany is expected to assume all the risk - e.g., by giving Ukraine the Taurus system - whilst the others cheer them on. If "Ukraine is defending our freedom", then it's defending everyone's freedom in the West. But isn't it remarkable that as soon as Ukrainian membership is proposed, many countries keen for the Germans to send Taurus suddenly develop "very good reasons" to keep them out.

Oh, and by the way, I'm really not sure the rest of Europe is truly ready for German leadership and what that will inevitably entail.

You will enjoy being told what to do.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

This so called 'special military operation' will put Russia back decades economically, militarily and population-wise - you can't lose hundreds of thousands of young(ish) men and not expect a major impact on the growth of future generations albeit, admittedly, most are from deprived ethnic regions.

Whilst Putin currently has a groundswell of support - real or contrived - much of it comes from the 'old guard' who lived through the Patriotic War and extreme nationalists. The younger, more enlightened generations and those who live in those Russian republics and who just live to survive in sub-third world conditions will, eventually, rise up and overturn the existing order and, ultimately, lead to the disintegration of 'modern day' Russia.

Russia's major threat is nuclear but that leads only to mutually assured destruction (MAD) and we have to hope and pray that there are still enough sane people in Russia's hierarchy to avoid such a catastrophe happening.

Excellent post. Economic big blunder if nothing else. Losing a generation will hit hard in a few years. Sadly, it will be after Putin has kicked the bucket.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Yes, the EU needs to have its own army. I have been saying that for years. As regards Ukraine, my position is simple. If we all want to defend Ukraine like we say we do, give Ukraine immediate NATO membership. Then we can all accept a shared burden of defending Ukraine. Right now, my impression is that only Germany is expected to assume all the risk - e.g., by giving Ukraine the Taurus system - whilst the others cheer them on. If "Ukraine is defending our freedom", then it's defending everyone's freedom in the West. But isn't it remarkable that as soon as Ukrainian membership is proposed, many countries keen for the Germans to send Taurus suddenly develop "very good reasons" to keep them out.

Oh, and by the way, I'm really not sure the rest of Europe is truly ready for German leadership and what that will inevitably entail.

You will enjoy being told what to do.

I suppose one could argue that the Taurus missile bears resemblance to our Storm Shadow and the French SCALP. We have expressed a willingness to offer and supplied these, albeit with certain conditions.

I can envision a scenario where, if Russia were forced out of Ukraine, there might be a swift application and acceptance, provided that actors on all sides could be aligned.

Regrettably, we are no longer part of the EU family, so we would monitor German management from across the channel. Nevertheless, I suspect that at a leadership level, German voices carry more weight than others

 

[Drico]

I suppose one could argue that the Taurus missile bears resemblance to our Storm Shadow and the French SCALP. We have expressed a willingness to offer and supplied these, albeit with certain conditions.

I can envision a scenario where, if Russia were forced out of Ukraine, there might be a swift application and acceptance, provided that actors on all sides could be aligned.

Regrettably, we are no longer part of the EU family, so we would monitor German management from across the channel. Nevertheless, I suspect that at a leadership level, German voices carry more weight than others

Taurus is considered superior to both of those - just as the latest Panzer, the Leopard 2, was to its peers. German engineering, they say. It's become convenient for others to, therefore, prod the Germans rather than ponying up their own systems instead. And, by the way, for the avoidance of doubt: Germany has provided more than twice the amount of military support to Ukraine than the UK has - and 25 times (!) more than France has (€17b versus €7b versus €0.6b). It's no wonder plenty here bristle at notions that they have to take the full risk as well as the financial hit...

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Taurus is considered superior to both of those - just as the latest Panzer, the Leopard 2, was to its peers. German engineering, they say. It's become convenient for others to, therefore, prod the Germans rather than ponying up their own systems instead. And, by the way, for the avoidance of doubt: Germany has provided more than twice the amount of military support to Ukraine than the UK has - and 25 times (!) more than France has (€17b versus €7b versus €0.6b). It's no wonder plenty here bristle at notions that they have to take the full risk as well as the financial hit...

I wouldn’t say Taurus is considered superior to Stormshadow/SCALP-EG, it’s designed to perform a slightly different role.

It has an intelligent fusing system that can detect different depths of material and voids and therefore is better suited to destroying large bridges or deeply buried fortifications. The reason Ukraine wants it, is to take out the Kerch bridge among other targets.

I think the reason Germany is unwilling to give it to Ukraine is that it’s Germany’s only deep strike weapon and whilst both France and U.K. are developing replacements for StormShadow and Scalp, Germany is not.

The worry therefore for Germany is the tech getting into Russian hands.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Exclusive: Putin's suggestion of Ukraine ceasefire rejected by United States, sources say​

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-suggestion-ukraine-ceasefire-rejected-by-united-states-sources-say-2024-02-13/

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Looks like another Russian navy ship has been hit.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Hardtalk with Russian UN mouthpiece Nebenzia. It's worth a listen.

HARDtalk - Vassily Nebenzia: Is Russia influencing global opinions? - BBC Sounds

Stephen Sackur speaks to Russia’s permanent representative to the UN

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[tantavisiteler]

Better late than never

EU proposes sanctions on Chinese firms aiding Russian war effort

Bloc hoping to close loopholes that allow Moscow to route military technology via third countries

www.theguardian.com

 

[Drico]

I wouldn’t say Taurus is considered superior to Stormshadow/SCALP-EG, it’s designed to perform a slightly different role.

It has an intelligent fusing system that can detect different depths of material and voids and therefore is better suited to destroying large bridges or deeply buried fortifications. The reason Ukraine wants it, is to take out the Kerch bridge among other targets.

I think the reason Germany is unwilling to give it to Ukraine is that it’s Germany’s only deep strike weapon and whilst both France and U.K. are developing replacements for StormShadow and Scalp, Germany is not.

The worry therefore for Germany is the tech getting into Russian hands.

It's considered superior for performing the sort of tasks the Ukrainians really want to perform: such as blowing up the Kerch Bridge, as you rightly say.

Yes, the Germans are concerned the tech will fall into Russian hands, but that's actually a convenient excuse that gives cover to the real fear, which is if the Ukrainians blow up the Kerch Bridge with a German system, it's the Germans who will get the blowback. This will not take the form of a strike on Berlin. It will take the form of our trains suddenly stopping (which already briefly happened earlier in the war as a warning), or our electricity failing: critical infrastructural attacks with plausible deniability that bring the country to a halt and into chaos.

For these reasons, it would be a very foolish German chancellor who will approve the delivery of Taurus. Then there are the historical reasons. The Russians are terrified of the Germans - but the same can be said in return. Scholz will come up with every excuse - US export restrictions, sensitive tech falling into enemy hands, etc. - to prevent export of Taurus. But then, that's not unique to Germany. All along we've heard the Americans insist that their tech is not used for attacks in Russia itself. Crimea, to many in the West, is a grey area. The Ukrainians insist it is Ukraine, but this insistence is not universally shared in the West (the Germans weren't too put out by the Russian annexation in 2014) - and it is certainly not shared when it comes to using some Western systems in that peninsula. The Germans won't be taking any chances.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

It's considered superior for performing the sort of tasks the Ukrainians really want to perform: such as blowing up the Kerch Bridge, as you rightly say.

Yes, the Germans are concerned the tech will fall into Russian hands, but that's actually a convenient excuse that gives cover to the real fear, which is if the Ukrainians blow up the Kerch Bridge with a German system, it's the Germans who will get the blowback. This will not take the form of a strike on Berlin. It will take the form of our trains suddenly stopping (which already briefly happened earlier in the war as a warning), or our electricity failing: critical infrastructural attacks with plausible deniability that bring the country to a halt and into chaos.

For these reasons, it would be a very foolish German chancellor who will approve the delivery of Taurus. Then there are the historical reasons. The Russians are terrified of the Germans - but the same can be said in return. Scholz will come up with every excuse - US export restrictions, sensitive tech falling into enemy hands, etc. - to prevent export of Taurus. But then, that's not unique to Germany. All along we've heard the Americans insist that their tech is not used for attacks in Russia itself. Crimea, to many in the West, is a grey area. The Ukrainians insist it is Ukraine, but this insistence is not universally shared in the West (the Germans weren't too put out by the Russian annexation in 2014) - and it is certainly not shared when it comes to using some Western systems in that peninsula. The Germans won't be taking any chances.

That all sounds a bit like a continuation of this.

Putin’s useful German idiots

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a repudiation of a whole generation of German politicians from across the spectrum.

www.politico.eu