Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[davek]

Hungary will veto it at the Council next month in a bid to force the EU's hand on COVID funds, etc, which have been frozen because Orban has no interest in rule of law. Von der Leyen and other opportunists will cave in order to keep the Ukrainian membership show on the road, but if she does she risks a tremendous backlash from citizens concerned about what the likes of Hungary and Poland have done to corrode the EU from within. Nobody is going to risk Ukraine behaving similarly in the future. In other words, this push to get the Ukrainians in jeopardises the entire Union if rule of law issues and other logistics are not reformed to prevent the EU from being eaten alive by the cuckoos in the nest.

If Von Der Leyen thinks that's a price worth paying, she'll be in for a rude awakening and any tacit support for Ukrainian membership will quickly dissipate among EU citizens who, in principle, would welcome Ukraine eventually. Eventually, realistically, is probably no sooner than 2035. There is too much internal reform to be completed first and Ukraine, while progressing, is like a third-world state in comparison to the EU average in terms of rule of law, minority rights, corruption, etc. Ukraine and others can benefit from future membership almost immediately (with partial access to the single market, Visas, Erasmus membership, etc., prior to joining in full), but there is no feasible route to earlier membership without massive internal EU reform - which will be long and difficult.

There may be a way to bring in Ukraine and Moldova gradually - but without full voting rights, etc., among other restrictions which gradually lift the closer they get to full membership. If Zelenskyy doesn't accept that, he can go for a jump. While many EU leaders talk the talk on Ukraine, their membership of the EU is a less popular concept among citizens. For example, Germany has to find €60 billion all of a sudden now its financial plans have been ruled unlawful by its constitutional court. At the same time, the defence minister is announcing huge packages of military support while the finance minister is suggesting massive cuts to social welfare to plug the financial black hole and the court ruling may even mean the abolition of the energy supports that citizens and industry have received to cushion the blow of abandoning Russian energy.

In other words, this is not a great time for Dimytro Kuleba or President Zelenskyy to start making unrealistic EU membership demands. Besides, they need NATO membership first. That's, de facto, how the EU defends itself. Ukraine will need to get under that umbrella first or it will always be vulnerable and any EU investment to build it up into a fully-functioning EU society will be too risky to justify.

We've got to sort Orban and co out first. Then, Ukraine has a potential path.

Very well put mate.

As you say there's no appetite for full membership and won't be for the foreseeable. As well as corruption and a pathetic human rights record the Ukraine are also a threat to EU member state's agricultural interests. @ramacca has detailed the extent of this threat and it's major factor why they'll be on the outside with their noses pressed up against the window...probably forever.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

The Russian Empire and its oligarchs need meat for the grinder and serfs to dig the minerals.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

It seems that we are seeing the loss of confidence in Russias military translate into a loss of confidence in its military equipment and sales.

Russian Air Force's flashy display ends in failure

One executive said he believed Russian firms were deliberately sidelined during last week's Dubai Airshow.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

More of the same from Vlad

Allegations of Russian Weaponized Migration Against the EU | Militaire Spectator

militairespectator.nl

Italy blames surge in migration on Russia's Wagner group

The Italian government on Monday said Russian mercenary group Wagner was behind a surge in migrant boats trying to cross the central Mediterranean as part of Moscow's strategy to retaliate against countries supporting Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Leading to

Analysis: How far will the Tory right push Rishi Sunak when it comes to small boats?

Hardliners are clutching at ever more extreme solutions – from forcing back boats to sending people to distant islands. Adam Forrest takes a closer look at what happens next

www.independent.co.uk

France's Le Pen says Wilders election upset gives hope to Europe

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen on Wednesday hailed what looked like a major election victory for Dutch anti-EU and anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders saying it showed people in Europe were ready to defend national identities.

www.reuters.com

Vlad is a very bad egg and not Europe's friend.

 

[Drico]

We don't need Putin to destabilise us when we have European centre-right parties in league with the devil - as is, potentially, the case in the Netherlands. Rutte's successor - ironically of Turkish extraction - has opened the door to Wilders. She thought she might need him to prop her up as PM. Turns out the tables have turned - and it will be she doing the propping up.

I suspect Timmermans will become PM when the horse trading starts and the danger of the far right in government becomes real.

 

[tantavisiteler]

Yale historian says west can break Ukraine stalemate with more military aid

Timothy Snyder argues that ‘dropping five more queens on the board’ would allow Ukraine to prevail

www.theguardian.com

 

[davek]

We don't need Putin to destabilise us when we have European centre-right parties in league with the devil - as is, potentially, the case in the Netherlands. Rutte's successor - ironically of Turkish extraction - has opened the door to Wilders. She thought she might need him to prop her up as PM. Turns out the tables have turned - and it will be she doing the propping up.

I suspect Timmermans will become PM when the horse trading starts and the danger of the far right in government becomes real.

Not great news for Ukraine.

I doubt Wilder's will have the numbers to become the government in Holland, but that'll weaken support for Ukraine.

 

[ramacca]

Biden and his lackey Johnson didn't want peace, but war.

 

[ramacca]

The US Empire has passed the buck to Europe to fight it's proxy war. But ther may not be the will to carry on much longer.

 

[ramacca]

Update from Avdiivka from a Russian prospective.

 

[ramacca]

Avdiivka Ukraine re-enforcements.

 

[Xizor]

Biden and his lackey Johnson didn't want peace, but war.

Imagine stumbling across a Twitter user called 'Global Thinker', a user who joined Twitter just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, and who posts pro-Russian propaganda dozens of times PER DAY, and literally NOTHING ELSE.

Imagine finding that account and being dim enough to think "Yep, that's the sort of thing I need to share with others, this clear and unbiased narrative".

I can't. Nobody's really that stupid, to think that Tweet is actually something to share, in public. On record. Nobody could actually have done that on purpose.

So imagine slowly coming to the realisation, as ramacca surely has by now, that you've been completely played by a disinformation campaign so brazen and yet inept that it would just be far too embarrassing to back out, so doubling down is your only option, on the vain hope that the 0.0000000001% chance they're actually right pays off.

You can admit you know, ramacca. You got in way over your head and thought being all anti-establishment would be 'cool' and impress the big lads... maybe they wouldn't laugh at you any more. But they're still laughing, ramacca. We all are.

 

[tantavisiteler]

Imagine stumbling across a Twitter user called 'Global Thinker', a user who joined Twitter just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, and who posts pro-Russian propaganda dozens of times PER DAY, and literally NOTHING ELSE.

Imagine finding that account and being dim enough to think "Yep, that's the sort of thing I need to share with others, this clear and unbiased narrative".

I can't. Nobody's really that stupid, to think that Tweet is actually something to share, in public. On record. Nobody could actually have done that on purpose.

So imagine slowly coming to the realisation, as ramacca surely has by now, that you've been completely played by a disinformation campaign so brazen and yet inept that it would just be far too embarrassing to back out, so doubling down is your only option, on the vain hope that the 0.0000000001% chance they're actually right pays off.

You can admit you know, ramacca. You got in way over your head and thought being all anti-establishment would be 'cool' and impress the big lads... maybe they wouldn't laugh at you any more. But they're still laughing, ramacca. We all are.

V well said

 

[Spadge Vernacular]