Current Affairs Ukraine

[Drico]

I don't understand it at all. I suppose it might work if Turkiye joins the EU in the mooted expansion by 2030 (and if the EU has any sense at all, they have to offer it), and him (Pashinyan) accepting that NK is a part of Azerbaijan at least opens the door to reduced tensions in the area (and removes the excuse for Russian troops to be on the ground there) but its an incredible risk to be running.

I can't see any way for Turkey to join the EU over the coming decades. Frankly, I don't think Ukraine's path to membership will see them join in the next 10 years either. There's a lot of sweet words being uttered about expansion from ambitious politicians who won't be around to manage the implications of such expansion, but the experience of allowing Hungary and Poland to join and seeing them trash the rule of law works against any significant expansion at grass roots level. There comes a time when such expansion overstretches the union and sows the seeds of its own destruction. The union must be deepened before expanding. Von der Leyen's soft talk about doing both together is disingenuous, when Orban and the PIS headbangers in Poland are cuckoos in the nest.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I didn't say newly integrated areas I said areas that Russia occupied before February 22... namely Crimea and parts of Dombas.

Yes I see that now

Not what you were saying yesterday I think ? Maybe I misread.

But I don’t think the globalist cabal would have that anyway

 

[Tipp blue]

Yes I see that now

Not what you were saying yesterday I think ? Maybe I misread.

But I don’t think the globalist cabal would have that anyway

That's exactly what I was saying yesterday.. maybe I didn't convey it accurately but it's what I ment.
I think both parties would be happy with that.
Russia as Putin could call it a win.
Ukraine as they gain protection.
The west as the war ends and economic stresses ease.

 

[Kev The Rat]

That's exactly what I was saying yesterday.. maybe I didn't convey it accurately but it's what I ment.
I think both parties would be happy with that.
Russia as Putin could call it a win.
Ukraine as they gain protection.
The west as the war ends and economic stresses ease.

NATO is now desperate to make a shock move somewhere to compel the Russians to agree to a frontal "freeze". I agree.

But Attacks on Sevastapol are not going to get that job done

 

[Tipp blue]

Your premise about formally recognising the newly integrated areas into Russia simply isn’t a goer as far as the western/globalist rabble are concerned

No chance they’d accept it.

Edit: I’ve seen you’ve revised your thoughts to include Crimea only into your calculation. Don’t think that will happen either particularly from Russias perspective.

To kick Russia out you’re going to need massive troop numbers on the ground. At the moment we are seeing low level attrition couple with ‘terror’ attacks from both sides.

That’s not enough imo.

I've always included crimea.. I class that as land occupied by Russia pre invasion.. it will be recognised by Ukraine, Russia and the west as Russian.. massive casualties on both sides u do believe Russia are starting to run out of weapons and their defence is beginning to be weakened, major attacks on sevestapol with the destruction of anti air defences and the re-taking of oil rigs in the black Sea prove this. Things that were unthinkable not long ago are happening now.

 

[davek]

Ukraine surrendering will just see Russia take what it currently occupies, then giving it 5-10 years to restock and come back for more and it's back to square1.
The only route to lasting piece is unconditional surrender of Russia or Russia is officially given and occupied lands from pre invasion and the remainder of Ukraine joins NATO..
a victory for Russia will see them eventually attempt to take Moldova Georga and any other former Soviet countries not under NATO protection.
Russia cannot win this war or it's far more bloodshed, ya know what you claim to be against.

 

[peteblue]

I can't see any way for Turkey to join the EU over the coming decades. Frankly, I don't think Ukraine's path to membership will see them join in the next 10 years either. There's a lot of sweet words being uttered about expansion from ambitious politicians who won't be around to manage the implications of such expansion, but the experience of allowing Hungary and Poland to join and seeing them trash the rule of law works against any significant expansion at grass roots level. There comes a time when such expansion overstretches the union and sows the seeds of its own destruction. The union must be deepened before expanding. Von der Leyen's soft talk about doing both together is disingenuous, when Orban and the PIS headbangers in Poland are cuckoos in the nest.

This was precisely my point in the EU thread…..

 

[larrygobfiend]

Your premise about formally recognising the newly integrated areas into Russia simply isn’t a goer as far as the western/globalist rabble are concerned

No chance they’d accept it.

Edit: I’ve seen you’ve revised your thoughts to include Crimea only into your calculation. Don’t think that will happen either particularly from Russias perspective.

To kick Russia out you’re going to need massive troop numbers on the ground. At the moment we are seeing low level attrition couple with ‘terror’ attacks from both sides.

That’s not enough imo.

NATO is now desperate to make a shock move somewhere to compel the Russians to agree to a frontal "freeze". I agree.

But Attacks on Sevastapol are not going to get that job done

You’re not as bullish today.

Lovely to see

 

[peteblue]

NATO is now desperate to make a shock move somewhere to compel the Russians to agree to a frontal "freeze". I agree.

But Attacks on Sevastapol are not going to get that job done

NATO isn’t really interested in a freeze. Russia can keep expending its money, ruining its economy, selling oil and gas at dirt low prices and buying obsolete arms off NK. Meanwhile Ukraine is kicking its arse, totally destroying any world view of Russia as a major power and running down Russias obsolete military. Russia now has an army made up of convicts, mercenaries and any odd job who wants some money. It, and you, do not see how diminished it is……..

 

[tsubaki]

I can't see any way for Turkey to join the EU over the coming decades. Frankly, I don't think Ukraine's path to membership will see them join in the next 10 years either. There's a lot of sweet words being uttered about expansion from ambitious politicians who won't be around to manage the implications of such expansion, but the experience of allowing Hungary and Poland to join and seeing them trash the rule of law works against any significant expansion at grass roots level. There comes a time when such expansion overstretches the union and sows the seeds of its own destruction. The union must be deepened before expanding. Von der Leyen's soft talk about doing both together is disingenuous, when Orban and the PIS headbangers in Poland are cuckoos in the nest.

I can - not only because of the strategic importance and the easily visible alternative (ie: Turkiye joining BRICS) providing a spur to make it happen, but also because of the problems you cite being an easily observable consequence of expanding into areas that were not part of the original bloc. Deepening the relationship of the EU amongst its current membership only makes it less likely that states outside the bloc would ever join; they'd be required to sacrifice too much,

For all the issues PIS and Orban (and others) have caused, the past few years have shown these are not insurmountable and, in Poland's case about defence and geopolitics especially, they were more correct than some states further West were.

I think the next wave of expansion is Serbia and Turkiye, but I agree about Ukraine being further back.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Deliberate murders of Ukrainian children by Russian soldiers reveal culture of impunity

Editor's Note: The story is based on the documentary “Bullet Holes,” published by the Kyiv Independent's War Crimes Investigations Unit. On a cold March morning, the Mahdyk family bundled themselves into their minivan. Their village near Kyiv was occupied, and they couldn’t bear staying there...

kyivindependent.com

 

[WA Toffee]

Aren't nk funded and supported in full by china?

Pretty much. It's another mis-step by Putin as Xi won't want his Korean lapdog making friends with other countries.
Cue Chinese annexing of Russia near the NK border to cut off supply routes within the next 10 years

 

[The binman chronicles]

Yes I see that now

Not what you were saying yesterday I think ? Maybe I misread.

But I don’t think the globalist cabal would have that anyway

The 'globalist cabal' would support just about anything to end the war. It's up to Ukraine to decide if they want to exchange that much of their borders for peace. My guess is no. I have a gut feeling push comes to shove they might give up rights to Crimea despite the hard words that they want that back, but the Donbas would be a hard no.

The thing is it is bloody hard to keep territory that is surrounded by the country you've taken it from. Push comes to shove one side will want it more and successive leadership changes will probably recognise this. Russia will have to spend vast amounts of money to keep that area secure and the motivation for the troops away from their homes will wane. Unless you can take 10 million Russians and re-home them in the region immediately who are 1) prepared to go live in what could well be an active war zone at any point and 2) Are all prepared to fight for the new land they have been given, it is easy to see Ukraine will eventually gain the upper hand when you have a population of 40 million with a great big border to something that is connected to the enemy just by a skinny corridor. Russia can dig in positions but they won't want to do that for another 5-10 years.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The 'globalist cabal' would support just about anything to end the war. It's up to Ukraine to decide if they want to exchange that much of their borders for peace. My guess is no. I have a gut feeling push comes to shove they might give up rights to Crimea despite the hard words that they want that back, but the Donbas would be a hard no.

The thing is it is bloody hard to keep territory that is surrounded by the country you've taken it from. Push comes to shove one side will want it more and successive leadership changes will probably recognise this. Russia will have to spend vast amounts of money to keep that area secure and the motivation for the troops away from their homes will wane. Unless you can take 10 million Russians and re-home them in the region immediately who are 1) prepared to go live in what could well be an active war zone at any point and 2) Are all prepared to fight for the new land they have been given, it is easy to see Ukraine will eventually gain the upper hand when you have a population of 40 million with a great big border to something that is connected to the enemy just by a skinny corridor. Russia can dig in positions but they won't want to do that for another 5-10 years.

3 points:

1. you have to remember despite the claims otherwise that a large percentage of people in Donbas want to be part of Russia, that’s not going to change in 5-10 years. Most have Russian passports now anyway. You won’t need to import people to maintain that balance.

2. The newly integrated areas are now formally part of Russia - no president can just write that off by walking away.

3. You must be joking if you think there are 40 million Ukrainians left. In terms of those that actually support the conflict against Russia I’d reckon there’s no more than 15-20 million left.

 

[Kev The Rat]

NATO isn’t really interested in a freeze. Russia can keep expending its money, ruining its economy, selling oil and gas at dirt low prices and buying obsolete arms of NK. Meanwhile Ukraine is kicking its arse, totally destroying any world view of Russia as a major power and running down Russias obsolete military. Russia now has an army made up of convicts, mercenaries and any odd job who wants some money. It, and you, do not see how diminished it is……..

You’re right, I’m sure our 25k squaddies would terrify the Russians