Current Affairs Ukraine

[COYBL25]

On one hand I fully agree. The waste of life is abhorrent. The east of Ukraine is naturally aligned to Russia and Crimea was all but name part of Russia up to its annexation. However, no matter what interference from outside or what reasons Russia have, Ukraine has every right to fight to retrieve its lands and people no matter what the cost.

It's an absolute catastrophe of a situation. To negotiate peace from here will require a lot of compromise from all sides. I still predict an independent Donbass (Russia Ln vassel state), Russian Crimea and huge reparation bill to Ukraine (sadly then siphoned off to the west to pay for wartime supplies and armaments and rebuilding). Hopefully, Ukraine will come out of this stronger. Can't see NATO membership being acceptable but getting it in the EU and prosperous would probably be more corrosive to the Putin regime than any NATO membership.

Also Russia needs to be bought back into the fold (as it should have been post Soviet Union breakup were it wasn't supported and conditions for the current mafia style government were generated) to ensure that this doesn't happen again- and that's a hard sell if Putin is around or a very close crony in charge. This also needs doing before China sucks Russia completely into its orbit otherwise, the west will have some limitations the ability to resist the Chinese expansion into the South China Sea (nit even arguing the rights and wrongs of that).

Plus if Russia comes back into the fold, the natural resources will reduce inflationary pressures and food supplies to highly volatile areas and reduce risk of famine, immigration, etc. in Africa/ Middle East. At some point western governments will become open to this before they face unacceptable decline in their countries.

Is the sacrificing of Ukrainian land acceptable? Ever moreso I believe. If Ukraine has lost 20% of its armed forces, then there's a breaking point being reached. Russia can keep this up indefinitely I'm afraid.

It's a mess.

Putin places no value on human life, both of his own people / troops, as well as the enemy, so he could go on indefinitely, but at some point, you`d hope that the Russian public, would say that enough is enough and refuse to sending any more men to be killed for one mans vanity.

Or

Comrade Kevinski and his mates on Skype could stage a coup and bring Russia back into the fold.

 

[Yarrgh]

Putin places no value on human life, both of his own people / troops, as well as the enemy, so he could go on indefinitely, but at some point, you`d hope that the Russian public, would say that enough is enough and refuse to sending any more men to be killed for one mans vanity.

Or

Comrade Kevinski and his mates on Skype could stage a coup and bring Russia back into the fold.

You had never at "or" then ventured off to fantasy.

Unfortunately from what I hear, there is a long way before the Russian public get to that point. But then again when things turn there, they turn very quickly.

 

[davek]

On one hand I fully agree. The waste of life is abhorrent. The east of Ukraine is naturally aligned to Russia and Crimea was all but name part of Russia up to its annexation. However, no matter what interference from outside or what reasons Russia have, Ukraine has every right to fight to retrieve its lands and people no matter what the cost.

It's an absolute catastrophe of a situation. To negotiate peace from here will require a lot of compromise from all sides. I still predict an independent Donbass (Russia Ln vassel state), Russian Crimea and huge reparation bill to Ukraine (sadly then siphoned off to the west to pay for wartime supplies and armaments and rebuilding). Hopefully, Ukraine will come out of this stronger. Can't see NATO membership being acceptable but getting it in the EU and prosperous would probably be more corrosive to the Putin regime than any NATO membership.

Also Russia needs to be bought back into the fold (as it should have been post Soviet Union breakup were it wasn't supported and conditions for the current mafia style government were generated) to ensure that this doesn't happen again- and that's a hard sell if Putin is around or a very close crony in charge. This also needs doing before China sucks Russia completely into its orbit otherwise, the west will have some limitations the ability to resist the Chinese expansion into the South China Sea (nit even arguing the rights and wrongs of that).

Plus if Russia comes back into the fold, the natural resources will reduce inflationary pressures and food supplies to highly volatile areas and reduce risk of famine, immigration, etc. in Africa/ Middle East. At some point western governments will become open to this before they face unacceptable decline in their countries.

Is the sacrificing of Ukrainian land acceptable? Ever moreso I believe. If Ukraine has lost 20% of its armed forces, then there's a breaking point being reached. Russia can keep this up indefinitely I'm afraid.

It's a mess.

I agree with most of that.

The bottom line is spot on too. Only one side can sustain this level of loss.

Overall WTF is the point of killing more young men and women. No wonder there's a thriving industry on both sides to avoid conscription. Those lads are being thrown into a situation where about 1 in 12 will be killed on the Ukrainian side. It's preposterous and Zelensky is a puppet who loses f.a. as he sends men to their deaths. Putin is beyond contempt, but this ends if the type of sense you indicate above is accepted around new realities over territory. Reconstruction of a broken infrastructure making people's lives pretty intolerable, and EU membership awaits when they sort themselves out - given the levels of cronyism rife in Ukraine society.

 

[davek]

There is one guy who could have stopped this before it started by, you know, not invading a sovereign nation on no pretext whatsoever

I agree. But here we are.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I want their clown shoes leader - swanning about in battle fatigues but facing no battles - to cut short the bloodshed his people are facing. There must be about 60,000 - 70,000 military dead by now and thousands more civilians. He needs to go now for what they will inevitably have to do anyway: peace negotiations.

Then reconstruction can begin.

WHat sort of "peace negotiations" do you imagine Putin will embrace??

 

[Lobster Johnson]

I agree. But here we are.

Might makes right then, Dave? That's an interesting precedent.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

A Strategic Strike Campaign

Ukraine Strikes Back - Farther and More Often

mickryan.substack.com

 

[Kev The Rat]

You had never at "or" then ventured off to fantasy.

Unfortunately from what I hear, there is a long way before the Russian public get to that point. But then again when things turn there, they turn very quickly.

the Russian public are well aware of the hatred against them that stems from a significant section in the West of Ukraine, and has done for multiple generations prior to any involvement by the current iteniration of the Russian state.

The fact that this fringe element has driven bombing campaigns against the section in the east in particular that sees itself as Russian, and indeed wants to join the Russian federation itself, has only cemented that.

There is no turning back now.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

You can empathise with Eastern European states that have been seeded with Russian proxies wanting this situation to put an end to Russian interference. Globally, the demise of Putin's mafia would be a hugely positive turning point.

It is sad for Ukraine that it has become the battle ground for this and that Russian aggression is causing so many to die (on both sides) but I can empathise with the Ukrainians who would rather fight to the last than exist under Russia's boot.

 

[Yarrgh]

the Russian public are well aware of the hatred against them that stems from a significant section in the West of Ukraine, and has done for multiple generations prior to any involvement by the current iteniration of the Russian state.

The fact that this fringe element has driven bombing campaigns against the section in the east in particular that sees itself as Russian, and indeed wants to join the Russian federation itself, has only cemented that.

There is no turning back now.

This unfortunately is very true. And whatever happens the resentment will fester.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

the Russian public are well aware of the hatred against them that stems from a significant section in the West of Ukraine, and has done for multiple generations prior to any involvement by the current iteniration of the Russian state.

The fact that this fringe element has driven bombing campaigns against the section in the east in particular that sees itself as Russian, and indeed wants to join the Russian federation itself, has only cemented that.

There is no turning back now.

It only sees itself as russian cos Russia moved loads erm, Russians there and told everyone it was now Russia

 

[Kev The Rat]

It only sees itself as russian cos Russia moved loads erm, Russians there and told everyone it was now Russia

The place has always been a Russian speaking/cultural majority let’s not start inventing scenarios where these people weren’t pro Russian.

But anyway the situation as it is, is demonstrably Russian speakers under attack and the Russian public cannot and will not turn a blind eye to it.

 

[Prevenger17]

The place has always been a Russian speaking/cultural majority let’s not start inventing scenarios where these people weren’t pro Russian.

But anyway the situation as it is, is demonstrably Russian speakers under attack and the Russian public cannot and will not turn a blind eye to it

Lol. Peak Kev. What an absolute fool

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

The place has always been a Russian speaking/cultural majority let’s not start inventing scenarios where these people weren’t pro Russian.

But anyway the situation as it is, is demonstrably Russian speakers under attack and the Russian public cannot and will not turn a blind eye to it.

Erm, no, only since Stalin moved Russian people there en masse "Population transfer to Soviet Ukraine occurred from September 1944 to April 1946 (ca. 450,000 persons)". Doing the same thing in 2014 and also arming them under the guise of "independent militia" is fooling no one (or so I thought)
You'll be telling me Benidorm is England, Southall is India and Boston is Latvian next.