Current Affairs Ukraine

[Martin Alvito]

It's a short-term fix - nothing else. Lukashenko's (meant to be unwell?) brokered agreement is not a viable long-term solution, so things aren't over yet.

Wagner's rebellion exposed the fragile nature of Putin's power and that of the MoD. The weaknesses have been highlighted and now will only get worse.

Like I said yesterday, Russia needs Wagner hence the compromise, but can Putin afford to look weak? Will he at some point act against those organised it?

To do so could cause more insurrection, and we've already seen how fragile internal security is.

We're so far off the deep end now that I don't think there's any predicting what happens next without some serious insider information.

The longer things drag on in status quo mode, the more likely it becomes that Putin holds onto power. He will have some serious challenges headed his way internally, though. We may not read about them in the paper, but they will happen.

 

[hktoffee]

It's a short-term fix - nothing else. Lukashenko's (meant to be unwell?) brokered agreement is not a viable long-term solution, so things aren't over yet.

Wagner's rebellion exposed the fragile nature of Putin's power and that of the MoD. The weaknesses have been highlighted and now will only get worse.

Like I said yesterday, Russia needs Wagner hence the compromise, but can Putin afford to look weak? Will he at some point act against those organised it?

To do so could cause more insurrection, and we've already seen how fragile internal security is.

Maybe they want a fair pay-rise or more ammunition and heavy weapons?

 

[Tipp blue]

Lukashenko will be dead soon and the new president has just recently arrived in Belarus with a private army behind him..

 

[PhilM]

We're so far off the deep end now that I don't think there's any predicting what happens next without some serious insider information.

The longer things drag on in status quo mode, the more likely it becomes that Putin holds onto power. He will have some serious challenges headed his way internally, though. We may not read about them in the paper, but they will happen.

Aye, it's all pontification. I think even the professional analysts would have been shaking their heads after yesterday's sudden about-turn, and coming after...

... quite a spontaneous and unexpected action by Wagner. It symbolises how the internal situation within Russia is a tinderbox. It's a fast changing situation.

I know I said it yesterday, however I'm struggling to see how the Kremlin will play this one because they need Wagner, however can they afford to have Wagner.

I know it's an imperfect comparison, yet it has shades of Röhm and his brown-shirts. They were initially required and were supported, but it became a beast.

Their growth fuelled fears, and eventually this gargantuan organisation with its leader became a threat, so they cut the head off. Has Wagner become the same?

But, ultimately they have been reliant on it in Ukraine and elsewhere, and I can't foresee either a peaceful amalgamation or (perhaps worse) an effective one.

This could benefit the Ukrainians, which could put more pressure on Putin and so on... However it pans out, I feel this is far from the end of the MoD vs Wagner war.

Maybe they want a fair pay-rise or more ammunition and heavy weapons?

I don't think we should ignore the last bit - this comes back to the Russian military vs Wagner debate. But an amalgamation may have serious implications.

Firstly, while the Russian army lacks discipline as part of its culture, the Wagner lot are on a different level. Worse, they receive far better pay and conditions.

Given their enhanced pay and their culture, are they going to freely come under the army? Will they take less pay? Will the conscripts be happy if they don't?

But as I mentioned above, Russia can't afford to disband them, so it's going to be a bumpy (very bumpy!) ride.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Lukashenko will be dead soon and the new president has just recently arrived in Belarus with a private army behind him..

After yesterday, I'm not ruling it out. Most of the time, my crystal ball is pretty good. I also recognize when we have entered a black swan universe, and it's dead as a doornail for the moment. This is one of those times.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Aye, it's all pontification. I think even the professional analysts would have been shaking their heads after yesterday's sudden about-turn, and coming after...

... quite a spontaneous and unexpected action by Wagner. It symbolises how the internal situation within Russia is a tinderbox. It's a fast changing situation.

I know I said it yesterday, however I'm struggling to see how the Kremlin will play this one because they need Wagner, however can they afford to have Wagner.

I know it's an imperfect comparison, yet it has shades of Röhm and his brown-shirts. They were initially required and were supported, but it became a beast.

Their growth fuelled fears, and eventually this gargantuan organisation with its leader became a threat, so they cut the head off. Has Wagner become the same?

But, ultimately they have been reliant on it in Ukraine and elsewhere, and I can't foresee either a peaceful amalgamation or (perhaps worse) an effective one.

This could benefit the Ukrainians, which could put more pressure on Putin and so on... However it pans out, I feel this is far from the end of the MoD vs Wagner war.

My short version would be: I could throw some math at this and make a prediction, but there are so many moving parts now that any model I try to come up with will be just dead wrong on specifying the assumptions, which means it will yield garbage outputs.

You're correct to assert that the Russia-Wagner relationship was complex at the best of times, and that now it's in just total disarray. To even have a hope of knowing what comes next, I would have to know who replaces Prigozhin, and what the relationship with Putin will look like. Those answers take time.

 

[davids]

And aside from destroying a beautiful city and killing many civilians, what would that have achieved? There was still tens of thousands of western-trained, highly-motivated and well-marshalled troops between Russia and victory, regardless of what happened to Kiev.

The US shock and awe tactics include... err... actually neutralising the opposing troops.

But the terror factor against the civilian population of Baghdad would have helped to concentrate the minds of the Iraqi army. Very sad to see the BBC piece last night interviewing an army doctor called Afgan who stated the counter attack wasn't going too well and seconds later they came under fire and had to treat a badly injured 57 year old soldier. Yes that's right three years short of 60
Highly trained and motivated? Think the cracks in the western media narrative are starting to show. That was the second realistic report in the last week from the BBC.

 

[davids]

Our problem is more that we suck at building ships, now. It's been a problem for a couple of decades.


I would put it this way. It used to be a lot more civilized. As China's power has grown, and Xi has been looking to deflect attention from internal problems by demonizing the US, it has become far more chippy. The US hasn't had a lot of options besides saber-rattling in reply, but that state of affairs can't last forever. We can't win a war in their backyard if they draw level on capabilities, due to the problem of power projection.

So it's really about maintaining the US empire.

 

[Martin Alvito]

So it's really about maintaining the US empire.

Thirty years ago, I would have agreed with you. Today, we're in such internal disarray that we can't manage anything within our own borders, much less an empire.

Turns out that Kenneth Waltz was right all along. A credible external enemy does a lot to focus a country, and order an international system.

 

[davids]

Thirty years ago, I would have agreed with you. Today, we're in such internal disarray that we can't manage anything within our own borders, much less an empire.

Turns out that Kenneth Waltz was right all along. A credible external enemy does a lot to focus a country, and order an international system.

I can't see any difference now. The war in Ukraine is diverting from the American internal financial mess
And they appear to be gambling by going all in hoping some type of victory will save face. And possibly the financial gain from rebuilding Ukraine will reinvigorate the economy.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I can't see any difference now. The war in Ukraine is diverting from the American internal financial mess
And they appear to be gambling by going all in hoping some type of victory will save face. And possibly the financial gain from rebuilding Ukraine will reinvigorate the economy.

I'm not responsible for your lack of memory about internal politics in the US thirty years ago, relative to now.

 

[Zatara]

There is no universe where a peaceful reunification happens with the CCP in charge.

You're short capabilities right now, but you're on a trajectory to have us cold by 2040, and shipbuilding is a slow game. We would have to do something about the problem right now, and the political will just isn't there.

Correct, theyre absolute dangers.

It’s in the hands of Kmt. Most of them view themselves as Chinese. It’s just the difference in political belief. Chinese should never fight against Chinese or else we fail into a trap setting up by others. Ordinary citizens suffer.

Yet youve been praising the scum for doing all sorts in HK.

Youre one warped brainwashed unstable freak.

It's a short-term fix - nothing else. Lukashenko's (meant to be unwell?) brokered agreement is not a viable long-term solution, so things aren't over yet.

Wagner's rebellion exposed the fragile nature of Putin's power and that of the MoD. The weaknesses have been highlighted and now will only get worse.

Like I said yesterday, Russia needs Wagner hence the compromise, but can Putin afford to look weak? Will he at some point act against those organised it?

To do so could cause more insurrection, and we've already seen how fragile internal security is.

He had all the cards...could have found himself in Moscow and been the hero to kick Putin out -- THEN decided to abdicate and allow elections or who knows what.

Instead hes done a deal and scuttled off to Belarus...nonsensical, how does he benefit?

 

[PhilM]

He had all the cards...could have found himself in Moscow and been the hero to kick Putin out -- THEN decided to abdicate and allow elections or who knows what.

Instead hes done a deal and scuttled off to Belarus...nonsensical, how does he benefit?

You're assuming he'd have made it to Moscow and, when reaching there, would have the political power to achieve said goal? Was that, however, is goal?

It's all conjecture. Also, I don't think he's done an about-turn and scurried off to Belarus, where he won't be particularly safe, because he wants to.

We don't know all the ins and outs, but I think most of us will realise that it's been sold to him as the best option, with the alternative likely not good for him or others.

On another note, if you were Lukashenko would you be comfortable having Prigozhin in your country? I doubt it.

 

[Martin Alvito]

You're assuming he'd have made it to Moscow and, when reaching there, would have the political power to achieve said goal? Was that, however, is goal?

It's all conjecture. Also, I don't think he's done an about-turn and scurried off to Belarus, where he won't be particularly safe, because he wants to.

We don't know all the ins and outs, but I think most of us will realise that it's been sold to him as the best option, with the alternative likely not good for him or others.

On another note, if you were Lukashenko would you be comfortable having Prigozhin in your country? I doubt it.

Agreed. Short version, I think it turned out Putin was holding more cards than we thought he was, twenty-four hours ago.

I didn't like Prigozhin's position on the board from the start, but I thought he might know something we didn't. Once Putin committed to the bridges on the Oka, I realized Prigozhin was boned. I think he made the same calculation.

 

[davids]

I'm not responsible for your lack of memory about internal politics in the US thirty years ago, relative to now.

No lack of memory...lack of interest definitely.
Having an army is primarily to defend the borders of your own country. The US have different ideas of what an army is for.