Current Affairs Ukraine

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Martin Alvito said:
A quick check suggests the discount is about $14 a barrel relative to Brent crude at the moment, which is a lot by historical standards. Russian oil is of relatively low quality, but the usual spread relative to Brent is a few bucks a barrel. It's fair to call it 'huge' or 'extreme' in context.


China is building ships like mad. They want Taiwan back, but the Seventh Fleet is in the way. Put enough ships in play, and the US Navy has little choice but to capitulate rather than fight. It's that or end up in Davy Jones's locker, which isn't much of a choice.
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I was watching a US diplomat being interviewed on Japanese new channel last week speaking about Taiwan and how it's something that the US and China have agreed to disagree on for half a century. Meanwhile the hawks in Washington are trying their hardest to demonise China. It's the usually US geopolitical maneuvering we've come to know and love. Taiwan is ideal for a confrontation... several thousand miles from home soil.
 
larrygobfiend said:
“They can end it when they want”

The lad’s an idiot
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Maybe if they'd gone the US Shock and Awe version on Kiev first few days they could well have ended it there and then. That was Putin being an idiot,he followed the Bush blueprint by coming up with a preposterous lie as an excuse to invade but then didn't follow it to the end (thankfully)
 
Martin Alvito said:
A quick check suggests the discount is about $14 a barrel relative to Brent crude at the moment, which is a lot by historical standards. Russian oil is of relatively low quality, but the usual spread relative to Brent is a few bucks a barrel. It's fair to call it 'huge' or 'extreme' in context.


China is building ships like mad. They want Taiwan back, but the Seventh Fleet is in the way. Put enough ships in play, and the US Navy has little choice but to capitulate rather than fight. It's that or end up in Davy Jones's locker, which isn't much of a choice.
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Indeed, the West and especially the U.K. have decimated our naval strength assuming that the USA would do it…a disgrace in my opinion…..
 
davids said:
Maybe if they'd gone the US Shock and Awe version on Kiev first few days they could well have ended it there and then. That was Putin being an idiot,he followed the Bush blueprint by coming up with a preposterous lie as an excuse to invade but then didn't follow it to the end (thankfully)
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If there's one thing that has been painfully evident in this whole sorry affair, it's that Russia is utterly incapable of any kind of 'shock and awe' warfare. They haven't even been able to practice combined arms tactics, let alone shock and awe.
 
Mrk said:
If there's one thing that has been painfully evident in this whole sorry affair, it's that Russia is utterly incapable of any kind of 'shock and awe' warfare. They haven't even been able to practice combined arms tactics, let alone shock and awe.
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I think they might just have managed a couple of days of raining hypersonic missiles on Kiev,but Putin is so deluded that he thought it would be Crimea Part 2.
 
stipe said:
Shoigu and Gerasimov stay, Wagner folded into Russian army, Prigozhin going to Belarus, i mean wtf?
What the hell just happened?
Prigozhin lost, was he blackmailed, maybe with his family, so confusing and utterly mind boggling
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Just like Bill at our place,,,,,
 
davids said:
I think they might just have managed a couple of days of raining hypersonic missiles on Kiev,but Putin is so deluded that he thought it would be Crimea Part 2.
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And aside from destroying a beautiful city and killing many civilians, what would that have achieved? There was still tens of thousands of western-trained, highly-motivated and well-marshalled troops between Russia and victory, regardless of what happened to Kiev.

The US shock and awe tactics include... err... actually neutralising the opposing troops.
 
peteblue said:
Indeed, the West and especially the U.K. have decimated our naval strength assuming that the USA would do it…a disgrace in my opinion…..
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Our problem is more that we suck at building ships, now. It's been a problem for a couple of decades.

davids said:
I was watching a US diplomat being interviewed on Japanese new channel last week speaking about Taiwan and how it's something that the US and China have agreed to disagree on for half a century. Meanwhile the hawks in Washington are trying their hardest to demonise China. It's the usually US geopolitical maneuvering we've come to know and love. Taiwan is ideal for a confrontation... several thousand miles from home soil.
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I would put it this way. It used to be a lot more civilized. As China's power has grown, and Xi has been looking to deflect attention from internal problems by demonizing the US, it has become far more chippy. The US hasn't had a lot of options besides saber-rattling in reply, but that state of affairs can't last forever. We can't win a war in their backyard if they draw level on capabilities, due to the problem of power projection.
 
peteblue said:
Indeed, the West and especially the U.K. have decimated our naval strength assuming that the USA would do it…a disgrace in my opinion…..
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The UK's naval policy has been a disgrace for decades. Traditionally the UK has never had a large standing army because... well, we're an island, so I'm okay with that. But we should never have given up our blue-water navy capabilities.
 
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